MinYoongi Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 (edited) Hey! I'ts my first solar Cycle observing, so I really need to learn Would you have any insight as to why NOAA jumped from likely G1 to a Watch for G3? Perhaps your personal thoughts on factors at play (ie strength of CME, interaction btw CH and CME, etc)? Not even 4 Hours ago it was G1-G2 *at best* . I try to get better at forecasting by myself. Will the Aurora will be visible in Germany with a G3 ? Now another Question: Is a negative BZ always needed for a period of storming? Thanks! Edited December 8, 2020 by MinYoongi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevenfraussen Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 The earth is a giant magnet. Around our planet is the magnetosphere, our magnetosphere is pointed northwards. Solar wind, the charged particles coming from the sun, carry the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) throughout our solar system. This IMF also has a certain angle (north or south). This angle is the Bz value you are talking about. You probably know that in magnets, the opposites attract eachother. The same principle applies for the IMF and our magnetic field, if the IMF is pointed northwards, it won't connect with our magnetic field because the two magnetic fields have the same polarity. If the IMF is pointed to the south, that means good news: the two magnetic fields will interact with each other and it will spark bright auroras. Now, do we need a negative Bz for auroras? No, it can happen with a northwards Bz, but big geomagnetic storms are not possible in 99 % of those cases. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 8, 2020 Author Share Posted December 8, 2020 What a great Answer, @stevenfraussen. Thanks! There are all those Words like IMF and BZ that i quite struggle with to understand. You made it easier now If anyone has an answer for my first question, feel free! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevenfraussen Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Since nobody answered your other questions, I'll try to answer those as well. Why did NOAA change its prediction to a G3? There can be a couple of reasons. One of them is that extensive modelling of the CME has shown that the impact might be heavier than previously expected. Another reason is that NOAA is a professional organisation and that they decided to issue a G3 watch to err on the safe side. A G3 storm is not dangerous for humans, but it might cause some voltage irregularities or security systems might give a false alarm, that sort of thing. Will the aurora be visible in Germany with a G3? Firstly it's important to tell you that a G3 is not guaranteed. The CME impact might be weaker, the IMF might point to the north which would be bad for geomagnetic storming. Depending on where you are in Germany, your chances will be higher or lower. If you are in Munich, you will have less chance to see the aurora than in Hamburg, for example. The best way to know if you're gonna have chances is by watching the Kiruna magnetogram on this site. For a place like Hamburg, I'd say you need 700 nT for photographic aurora and 1300 nT for visible aurora. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 Thanks alot, Steven. I am in the West/Middle of Germany so i really need to cross fingers. :< May I ask one more question? You may remember me being a bit scared of what will happen because of the possibility of a G3 storm and the CME impact overall. Your answers on that Post really made me understand things more and easier, and calm down. But now a Youtuber I really like said : "I'm forecasting for the next 10 Days to include all kinds of communication issues, satellites blackouts, etc. An electron storm will follow the geomagnetic storm." Which makes me a bit uneasy again. Dr. Tamitha Skov said nothing about things like that so I again dont really know what to think... ._. I had sun related anxiety for a long time before i decided to learn about it more to help defeat the anxiety. I hope everyone reading this understands that I really try to learn and defeat my anxiety with proper knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 It might be a good thing to not follow or view those YouTube channels 😉. Thamitha is a good expert so you can follow here without problems but others are just spreading fake news and don't know anything about space weather (or they think they do but they aren't). The next days will be full of geomagnetic disturbance, without any ground level issues. Satellites will be safe as well, the G3 warning by the SWPC has alerted satellite operators and grid operators to prepare for a possible strong geomagnetic storm, some satellites will be more monitored or put in lower orbit to be more safe etcetera. We've had hundreds of those storms in the recent history and we still walk around with many satellites in the sky and with enough electricity 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: It might be a good thing to not follow or view those YouTube channels 😉. Thamitha is a good expert so you can follow here without problems but others are just spreading fake news and don't know anything about space weather (or they think they do but they aren't). The next days will be full of geomagnetic disturbance, without any ground level issues. Satellites will be safe as well, the G3 warning by the SWPC has alerted satellite operators and grid operators to prepare for a possible strong geomagnetic storm, some satellites will be more monitored or put in lower orbit to be more safe etcetera. We've had hundreds of those storms in the recent history and we still walk around with many satellites in the sky and with enough electricity 😉 Yeah, it might not be the best, youre absolutely right. It's just really hard to wheat out the black sheeps of our community. Its even harder to find reliable informations, but with this Forum i believe, ive found a good portion of people able to talk about the sun without the "we're all going to DIE" talk. 😄 Im gonna relax then, and enjoy some Aurora Livestreams on Youtube. BTW, is your KP Forecast Updated regulary or just once per day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 we’re here to give out correct information and good forecasts for space weather 😊 and we’re always positive and look forward to great Aurora pictures Short term Kp forecast on the site/app is updated daily, long term forecast weekly. Observed Kp is stored daily and half monthly to our archive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 14 uren geleden, MinYoongi zei: Im gonna relax then, and enjoy some Aurora Livestreams on Youtube. BTW, is your KP Forecast Updated regulary or just once per day? ...and this dail updates every 3 hours or instantly when the NOAA SWPC issues an ALERT for conditions ranging between Kp4 and Kp9. These ALERTS from the NOAA SWPC are also automatically posted on our Twitter account and as a push alert on the SpaceWeatherLive mobile app. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 Ive seen it last night on Twitter, when the CME started its impact. Great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 A fun fact that not everyone maybe knows: the CME impact alert which you saw in action this night on Twitter and the mobile app is also automated. A large amount of the CME impacts can be detected by this system as long as there is data from DSCOVR and a clear set of parameters are reached at the time of impact. It is a masterpiece made by Sander which a lot of sweat, tears and time went into. He is truly a genius behind the keyboard at times! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 I didn't knew the algorithm and program was made by him! Absolutely insane! 🥰 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vedran Brnjetic Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 On 12/9/2020 at 3:36 PM, MinYoongi said: You may remember me being a bit scared of what will happen because of the possibility of a G3 storm and the CME impact overall. Your answers on that Post really made me understand things more and easier, and calm down. But now a Youtuber I really like said : "I'm forecasting for the next 10 Days to include all kinds of communication issues, satellites blackouts, etc. An electron storm will follow the geomagnetic storm." Which makes me a bit uneasy again. Dr. Tamitha Skov said nothing about things like that so I again dont really know what to think... ._. I had sun related anxiety for a long time before i decided to learn about it more to help defeat the anxiety. I hope everyone reading this understands that I really try to learn and defeat my anxiety with proper knowledge. I'd trust science forum more than any YouTuber. Currency here is hard data. Currency on YouTube is number of views, likes, shares and subscribers. And those tend to go higher when there's something sensational going on. Doom and gloom work really well, especially in 2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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