Guest danderson500 Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 I though maybe 2443 would quiet down but it is still active? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 you know that 2445 is going to be quiet the next time it comes on the disk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I though 2443 was going to quiet down then it does a M flare..why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 3 minuten geleden, danderson500 zei: I though 2443 was going to quiet down then it does a M flare..why? because the Sun is a bully and it won't stop bullying... It's still fairly magnetically complex so it still had capabilities of producing such an event. And the M3.7 flare was a magnificent one, nicely center disk eruption, long duration event. These are the best solar flares . At the time of writing there is a moderately strong coronal dimming, a CME is surely accompanied with this event and it looks like it will be a full halo Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection. There is a fair chance a proton event could come up. In the forthcoming hours we look forward for LASCO imagery and more updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 but it might not be a fast CME... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 6 minuten geleden, danderson500 zei: but it might not be a fast CME... So what? This will be a very nice event, even if it is a bit slower. Just accept the fact that we'll see a nice CME impact somewhere this week without wining about stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 of course 2443 will have lesser chances to be earth directed..so this is the only chance I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim De Blanck Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Yes, sit back and enjoy the incoming data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AurorahunterPA Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Really hoping this potential cme drives the aurora crazy! I need another chance to see an aurora... since it was a long duration flare, would that help a cme be stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 accoridng to CACTUS, the speed is not that great-0434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AurorahunterPA Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 look how dense this material is supposed to be by the time it hits, that looks promising to me. Even if it is slow I would expect density to matter more than velocity, but I could very well be wrong. http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 2 uren geleden, AurorahunterPA zei: look how dense this material is supposed to be by the time it hits, that looks promising to me. Even if it is slow I would expect density to matter more than velocity, but I could very well be wrong. http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261 I am not sure what drives these models from NASA but their first run is always out very soon and often way too positive. I do not expect such a strong impact as this model suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 4 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said: I am not sure what drives these models from NASA but their first run is always out very soon and often way too positive. I do not expect such a strong impact as this model suggests. This looks like a worst-case scenario. I just hope we'll see some dancing lights... Danderson, if you are reading this : NO, it's not time to panic yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowman73 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Hi, I am new to this and will be visiting Reykjavik between 13th and 16th November. Looking at the recent KP values as well as the sunspots, I just wondered if you could estimate the likely hood of increased aurora activity with respect to sunspot region 2448 - or - if 2443 may even still have an effect at that time. I am a bit worried about the lack of any sunspots between 2443 and 2448. Apologies if have posted this in eth wrong forum but would be grateful for any feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 20 minuten geleden, Snowman73 zei: Hi, I am new to this and will be visiting Reykjavik between 13th and 16th November. Looking at the recent KP values as well as the sunspots, I just wondered if you could estimate the likely hood of increased aurora activity with respect to sunspot region 2448 - or - if 2443 may even still have an effect at that time. I am a bit worried about the lack of any sunspots between 2443 and 2448. Apologies if have posted this in eth wrong forum but would be grateful for any feedback. Welcome! I wouldn't be too worried about sunspots or coronal mass ejections if you are going to Iceland. You are at such a high latitude there that very little is needed for very decent aurora displays. Some periods with a bit of southern IMF (Bz) should be enough to kick things of over there and you do not need sunspots for that. It's a common misconception that we need sunspots on the Sun for aurora on Earth. If you stay there a couple of nights and have clear weather, there will be a very decent chance you get to see something. Hope this is of help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowman73 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Thank you for this! We are staying three nights and are looking forward to experiencing Iceland very much - if we see the northern lights we will be very happy so fingers crossed the sky's will be clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 are any of the new sunspots exciting in terms of size? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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