Maxime Fiset Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 i think noaa has it wrongNo, I'm pretty sure they've got it right. I'd even downgrade the level to G1, but hey, you never know. For the new wave of people fearing CMEs, well I must admit I'm part of it : MANY people learned on preppers websites that a CME is something that could put an end to our current way of life. But the way I see it right now, very few preppers actually make it here or on other sun watching boards, because most of the time, they fill their sun-watching with fear-mongering about doomsday and how sun cycle affects earthquakes and all this BS... Yeah. Preppers are not all sane. CMEs don't scare me, I see it as a tower-defense game (sorry for the geek comparison) : you KNOW you're gonna win, but it's still a lotta fun watching the waves come crashing one after another. And I've learned so much in the past 2 years, that I actually could engage a conversation about CMEs and Earth's magnetic field with a university lecturer in geography last month. Since I have found this place, I've learned even more, and I hope I will keep learning! =D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 to think about it the only way i see a CME causing any issues for the grid would be a full halo and really fast CME thats what i think it happened in 2003 but nothing happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 to think about it the only way i see a CME causing any issues for the grid would be a full halo and really fast CME thats what i think it happened in 2003 but nothing happenedI remember the auroras of 2003. Wasn't into space weather back then, though. I worry more about a 1989-like event occuring in february. Where I live (Québec city), winters are rough, with minimums of -40F and between 10 and 15 feet of snow. Even a 48hrs blackout, in these conditions, is a public safety issue. The big hailstorm of hm... '96 or '98, don't remember, well it was only a region that went without power. Granted, 50% of the population of the province, but think of what it would be if the whole of Atlantic North-America went black for 2-3 days while it's -40! That's very likely to happen. As much as a Carrington-class event, though the risk seems much more real to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 25, 2015 Author Share Posted June 25, 2015 Dont worry Im a computer geek myself I love your analogy yea I only worry about the big ones I live in minnesota and though our seasons may not be as extreme as quebec we still have occasional -70 degree feirenheight winters so it can get bad here. But yea even though the chances of a carrington event happening soon are pretty small it only takes one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 you know it would not shock me if 2371 decays a lot on the farside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Dont worry Im a computer geek myself I love your analogy yea I only worry about the big ones I live in minnesota and though our seasons may not be as extreme as quebec we still have occasional -70 degree feirenheight winters so it can get bad here. But yea even though the chances of a carrington event happening soon are pretty small it only takes one.Well, Minnesota winters are just as bad as ours if you ask me. I've been studying geography for a while now, and trust me : I'm better off HERE than in Minnesota. You know, the northern part of your state is even more north than Québec city is. =S Oh and hm... the chances are 12% in the next 10 years =P But that could mean that for it NOT to occur in the next 73 years are just as high. 12% =P Source : http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/(For the 12%. The 73 years thingy is just from me.)you know it would not shock me if 2371 decays a lot on the farsideWhat's the big deal with decay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 well it has flared so much it might not a anything left tin the tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 well it has flared so much it might not a anything left tin the tankSomeone, I am not convinced it works that way. Anyone could clarify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 you know sometimes a sunspot can lose gas as quickly as it gains complexity oh by the way when is 2371 leaving the disk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 you know it would not shock me if 2371 decays a lot on the farside Lol would think with someone of your level of anxiety decay would be a blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 oh by the way when is 2371 leaving the diskIt's already past Earth's orbit. In your words, no more full-halo from this one. In about 24h, we won't even see 2371 anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 this guy on facebook said goodbye power grids i think he is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Yeah. He his. Anyone can say anything on FB. =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 he should have know better because this CME is not a big one how good is NASA DONKI is it as good as SWPC you know i hate to be the guy from NOAA SWPC who has to make the call to the grid operators if we have a carrigton class CME it would one of the biggest calls in my career and i would tell them to shut it down even before it hits ACE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbeH Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 Wow! yet a fifth CME launched at earth yesterday morning! M7.9 maybe it will produce some aurora. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Wow! yet a fifth CME launched at earth yesterday morning! M7.9 maybe it will produce some aurora.any issues from this one? was thinking after a documentary how big would be the nt for a carrigton event? what worries me is not the CME but the power grid i wonder if i should prep by getting more food and drinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Feebs Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Wow! yet a fifth CME launched at earth yesterday morning! M7.9 maybe it will produce some aurora.I hope! While we'll have active regions like 2371, it'll always have a place in memory. One of my friends had a birthday Monday evening and she got to see the aurora for the first time ever. I was happy I was still watching the site (been watching it since the end of 2014) and quickly bombarded her phone with messages and texts about it. After the excitement of it all, I finally signed up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 I hope! While we'll have active regions like 2371, it'll always have a place in memory. One of my friends had a birthday Monday evening and she got to see the aurora for the first time ever. I was happy I was still watching the site (been watching it since the end of 2014) and quickly bombarded her phone with messages and texts about it. After the excitement of it all, I finally signed up!Welcome Feebs! That is really nice to hear that someone got to see aurora for the first time. Well done! what worries me is not the CME but the power grid i wonder if i should prep by getting more food and drinksDon't live your life in fear and just enjoy yourself. We explained before you worry way to much about this stuff.If you really want to discuss prepping stuff you are better of finding a dedicated site to that. Also stop double posting please, we warned you before about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 you might want to look at this you tube video about the sun Welcome Feebs! That is really nice to hear that someone got to see aurora for the first time. Well done! Don't live your life in fear and just enjoy yourself. We explained before you worry way to much about this stuff.If you really want to discuss prepping stuff you are better of finding a dedicated site to that. Also stop double posting please, we warned you before about this. i wont do that unless we get a carrigton CME promise also none of these CME's were that fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Feebs Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Welcome Feebs! That is really nice to hear that someone got to see aurora for the first time. Well done! Thanks! I figured since I lurk on the site a lot with my random bouts of insomnia I'd start doing SOMETHING interesting. So I took up heliology as a hobby. At least as much as I can do without a college education. It's been paying off too! I kind of wish I delved into it sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 i wont do that unless we get a carrigton CME promise also none of these CME's were that fast Dude. It shows. You are almost out in the street with a "REPENT!!" sign. Have a tea and relax. Where you from? What do you do in life? What are your hobbies? Why are you so afraid of the end of the world as we know it, while probably not afraid of dying in a car accident? Thanks! I figured since I lurk on the site a lot with my random bouts of insomnia I'd start doing SOMETHING interesting. So I took up heliology as a hobby. At least as much as I can do without a college education. It's been paying off too! I kind of wish I delved into it sooner. Yeah, welcome. What brought you here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Feebs Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Yeah, welcome. What brought you here? Pretty much the X1.8 flare in December last year. I knew that solar weather caused aurorae, but I didn't know too much in detail (other than what was taught in my high school) how solar flares reacted with the Earth's magnetic fields. After that I was pretty much hooked. I was amazed at the records kept since the 1700's and I just kept digging. Still digging when I can, with work and all. Hoping to eventually get people more aware when they can see the aurora (which is rare) in my area. The last one I could remember was in October of 2011. But for the most part, just watching the intensity of the flares, oogle the data, and then wait for the next one. They always make epic wallpapers for my desktop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 i don't think the power grid would be in real danger unless it was a really big one is it rare for a CME to hit head on i am still kind of worried that 2371 is going to do more when it comes back in 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxime Fiset Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 i am still kind of worried that 2371 is going to do more when it comes back in 2 weeksWhat part of avoiding double-posting do you have trouble to understand? Learn how to use the quote and edit buttons. I'm starting to believe you are a troll, seriously. Like, 2 days ago, you said 2371 was decaying, and now you're freaking because you think it might be back? Seriously, get over yourself, grow a pair and get a job. You have too much free time.i don't think the power grid would be in real danger unless it was a really big oneThen why do you always complain that you are worried? The fact that you are the center of your very own universe (which is the case for everyone, I assure you) does not make your lifetime special. If we are bound to be nuked by the sun, you, my friend, are not going to change that. You could also die of spontaneous combustion, ya know? Humans have been worrying that the world will end since BIBLICAL times. We're still here, aren't we?is it rare for a CME to hit head onNo. It happens all the time. And it will keep happening no matter how worried you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest danderson500 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 i understand now what you are talking about but usaly a sunspot is not as strong on its second trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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