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Active Region 2157

Vancanneyt Sander

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity September 4th 22:00 UTC


Analysis of the past 24h

Solar activity was low, multiple C-class flares where observed mainly from regions 2152 and newly numbered region 2157. 2157 is one of the three regions that produced strong flares on the far side of the Sun back on September 1 and are now rotating into view.

The two southern hemisphere regions have received sunspot numbers 2155 and 2157. Region 2157 was responsible from the M2.5 event that occurred yesterday. Sunspot region 2155 does not seem very complex at the moment and does not seem like a likely candidate to produce a strong solar flare.

The regions are still close on the limb to determine their magnetic complexity but some of the magnetic details are already visible. From the brief period we can tell that the faculae in the center of region 1257 are vanishing and new penumbral area can be seen. There is at least one magnetic delta structure in this region, M-class flares are likely.

On the northern hemisphere we are also seeing a sunspot region coming into view. This region was responsible for the first strong solar flare on September 1 that caused an enhancement in the high energy protons here at Earth. It is too early to tell much about this sunspot region as it still has to rotate fully into view. It has also not yet received a sunspot number but we can not exclude strong solar flares from this region.

What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with M-class flare likely from region 2157.


M-class flare probability: 40% chance

X-class flare probability: 5% chance

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