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Active Region 2132

Marcel de Bont

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of sunspot region 2132 - August 1, 2014

Analysis of sunspot region 2132

It was 2 weeks ago that we had the first official day without any sunspots on the Sun but the sunspots are back! There are 8 numbered sunspot regions on the earth-facing disk but which region is the most likely region to produce a solar flare?

The answer is very clearly sunspot region 2132. Sunspot region 2132 has a solid delta spot just east of the two leader spots and has overall a decent amount of magnetic mixing. This region is still in a phase of growth so it is definitely worth keeping an eye on. It is not yet in a great geo-effective position but that will chance in the coming days.

Credit: NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory.


What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

Solar activity will likely be low with a chance for moderately strong (R1-R2) activity, sunspot region 2132 being the most likely source.


M-class flare probability: 40% chance

X-class flare probability: 5% chance

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