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Active Region 2113 - (M6.5)

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SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity July 8, 2014


Analysis of the past 24h

Many spots with barely activity but still with a higher background flux around C1. This calmness came to an abrupt ending when active region 12113 unleashed an M6.52 solar flare. The region rotated onto the disk few days ago and was numbered yesterday and has a magnetic simple layout so it got us a bit by surprise. The M-class flare was moderate in duration and was accompanied with moderately strong coronal dimming indicating there is a CME associated with it. From the first images it seems like a wide CME with bulk headed to the northeast of the equator. LASCO data is currently incomplete so further CME analysis will be done later, chances are high that it's not Earth directed because the region is still close to the limb.








Footage courtesy of NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory & Nariaki Nitta.


What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

Solar activity will likely be low with a slight chance for moderately strong activity from region 2108, 2109 and region 2113 as it develops new flux.


M-class flare probability: 50% chance

X-class flare probability: 5% chance

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Guest Stephane Mabille

FINALLY, from the time we expect a rash and not just the most important potential

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SpaceWeatherLive Update

M1.2 solar flare - July 9, 2014

Sunspot region 2113 proves it is not a one-trick pony by producing it's second M-class event: a fairly impulsive M1.2 solar flare at 00:26 UTC. It is likely not associated with a CME but it looks like this region will be a region to keep an eye on as it rotates into a more geo-effective position in the coming days. A quick analysis of this region reveals no obvious magnetic delta structure but there is some magnetic mixing which would classify this region as a region with a Beta-Gamma magnetic layout. If region 2113 continues to grow we might be in for a period of higher solar activity.


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SpaceWeatherLive Update

CME analysis - July 9, 2014



SOHO LASCO imagery is complete, this means we can analyse the CME from the M6 solar flare that occurred yesterday. As expected, the CME is heading north-east of the ecliptic and there is no obvious earth-directed component visible. We do not expect this CME to arrive at Earth.
The M1 solar flare from earlier today seems to have released a very minor CME that is almost not even worth mentioning. It was also not earth-directed.

Sunspot analysis

A quick look at sunspot region 2113 reveals that it lost a few spots over the past 12 hours. It retains it's Beta-Gamma magnetic layout but the chance that it produces another M-class flare became slightly lower.




Sunspot regions 2108 and 2109 together with region 2113 remain the most dominant sunspot regions on the disk. These three regions are the most likely regions to produce a moderate solar flare. The full disk forecast for the next 24 hours are:

M-class flare probability: 40% chance

X-class flare probability: 5% chance

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