Marcel de Bont Posted March 19, 2014 Share Posted March 19, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of sunspot region 2010 Solar activity remains at low levels but we almost reached moderate levels thanks to a C9.9 solar flare from sunspot region 2010. Region 2010 is now the most complex region on the disk. It is slowly developing and possesses a weak magnetic delta structure. It can be classified as a region with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? If this region keeps on developing and manages to retain it's delta structure we could see a low-level M-class flare. X-class flares are not to be expected. M-class flare probability: 30% chance X-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of sunspot region 2010 Sunspot region 2010 was relatively stable over the past 24 hours but did show some magnetic separation and it lost it's small delta spot. Nonetheless, it was the source of a solar flare today which looked to have launched a CME based on SDO/AIA imagery. The CME is visible in LASCO imagery but it does not look like it's Earth-directed. Region 2014 produced a flare at exactly the same time (M1.7) and that makes it impossible to say how strong the flare from region 2010 was. The flare from region 2010 was likely a C-class flare. As said, the newest LASCO images show a CME that is heading away from Earth but should more imagery indicate that there might be an earth-directed component then we will of course notify you about it. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-38216500-1395309999.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-94-0-14587200-1395310161.pngWhat can we expect in the upcoming 24h from region 2010? Region 2010 simplified over the past 24 hours. C-class flaring can be expected from it. An M-class event is not impossible but not very likely. Region 2014 is still too close to the limb to accurately determine it's flaring potential. A new topic will be opened for sunspot region 2014 if it has the potential for more strong solar flares.M-class flare probability: 20% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jose Ignacio Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Bonjour. Je suis nouveau sur ce site mais je les suis depuis longtemps. J'ai un faible niveau en physique solaire, mais j'aime ça. Ma première question est de savoir si la structure magnétique active 12010 Regio se transforme en un bêta-gamma-delta. merci beaucoup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Bonjour sur le forum! Region 12010 a formé une structure magnetique delta sur la centre de la region. Les taches sont encore petite mais si la development se continue on peut voir une eruptions sur la classe M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Just a quick update on the long duration C2 event in case anyone is curious about the comment I made earlier today in the topic related to region 2014: > LASCO imagery has yet to come in from this event so it is impossible to tell if there is an earth-directed CME. STEREO A COR2 imagery shows a very faint CME first visible at 12:54 UTC which could be from the C2 event but it is absolutely nothing to get exciting about. LASCO should give us more information but as said, it has yet to be updated. Animation: STEREO A COR2 Note the very weak ejecta on the left, possibly associated with the C2 event. Even if it is an earth-directed event, we shouldn't expect anything from it. For questions feel free to post in this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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