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Solar activity February 19 & 20, 2014

Marcel de Bont

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Solar activity was complicated over the past 24 hours. There are a lot of things going on right now. Here is an analyses made by the SpaceWeatherLive team. What can we expect the coming days:

Three full halo CMEs occurred. Yes you hear that right: three, and they are all coming towards Earth.

The first one occurred around 16:00 UTC on February 19, related to a filament eruption near the central meridian. It was a very faint asymmetrical full halo CME with the bulk of the CME heading well south, but a glancing blow at Earth is likely. It would likely not be noticeable when it arrived at Earth if it weren't for our next CME...

The second one was related to a C3.3 flare from Active Region 1982. This was an asymmetrical full halo CME which will most likely arrive at Earth. We expect this shock to arrive on February 22 around 10:00 UTC. The speed of this CME was calculated to be around 1000km/s. It is highly likely that the C3 CME will merge with the filament CME and arrive as one shock.

Region 1976 decided to join the fun this morning with a long duration M3 solar flare. STEREO and LASCO indicate the launch of a CME. LASCO shows an asymmetrical full halo CME with the bulk heading well west. Nonetheless a weak halo formed on LASCO C2 which suggests a glancing blow from this CME is very well possible but the part that is Earth-directed might be too weak to really cause a lot of geomagnetic disturbance.

The 10 MeV protons have passed the S1 threshold thanks to the M3 solar flare. It will not reach the S2 threshold unless another event occurs on the Sun. More info: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/what-is-a-space-radiation-storm

More geomagnetic storming will be possible the next few days!




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