Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity February 12 - 21h15 Analysis of the past 24h Solar activity reached moderate levels today with multiple M-class flares from region 1974, the largest was an M3.79. This M-flare was accompanied with an EIT wave, coronal dimming and also a coronal mass ejection. the CME left the sun with a speed between 600 and 700km/sec and was visible in LASCO imagery a a full halo CME with the bulk headed north but a fair part of the CME is directed towards Earth. An impact can be expected on February 15th and G1 geomagnetic storming will be possible. We consider G2 geomagnetic storming unlikely. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=520930768021437 The M2.1 solar flare that peaked at 15:51 UTC did not seem to have produced a CME. The CMEs around that time frame were determined to be farside events. Regions 1967, 1968 and a new region are producing occasional flares on the far side. Region 1974 was the source of all M-class flares today and is a fairly new region which went through a lot of development in the past few days. On February 9th it was a fairly simple region with beta-gamma characteristics but rapidly grew with lots of new spots and small delta spots in the past days. The region keeps developing and new delta spots are emerging and ar trying to form in the south eastern part. There are currently three clearly visible delta spots in the region. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? As the development goes on in region 1974, the chances for further strong flares increases. But as the delta spots are not as strong yet, it's more obvious that we might see only minor to mid-level M-class flares. X-class flares are not to be expected. M-class flare probability: 60% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity February 15 Analysis of the past 24h A short update on region 1974 that is now turning away from Earth and got surprisingly quiet over the past 24 hours. No M-class flares were observed. It's strongest flare was an C2.2 solar flare. The strongest solar flare of today was an C2.3 solar flare and that came from region 1973! What happened? Well, region 1974 started to decay and lost all of it's magnetic delta structures. It now has a fairly simple Beta-Gamma magnetic layout. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-94-0-67103700-1392509433.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-94-0-06950400-1392509434.jpg What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Region 1974 will likely continue to decay and loose magnetic complexity. An occasional C-class flare will be possible but anything stronger than that seems unlikely. M-class flare probability: 10% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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