Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 23, 2013 Share Posted October 23, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 23rd 2013 Analysis of the past 24h Solar activity was moderate today with a moderate M2.7 flare from region 1875 and multiple C-class flares from this region. Region 1877 was relatively quiet. Region 1875 has developed further and it continues to change it's looks. There are multiple delta structures visible in the central part of the region (white arrows on the image above). Also penumbral development is noted. The M2.7 flare is most probably associated with a coronal mass ejection, however it is still too early to determine this due to unavailable LASCO and STEREO imagery. Due to the position of the region, an Earthward component is likely. More updates will follow in this topic and on our social media channels. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Due to the magnetic complexity of the region and it's further development, M-class flares are very likely; there's also a slight chance for an X-class flare. M-class flare probability: 50% chance X-class flare probability: 10% chance There is also a slight chance for an S1 space radiation storm as this region rotates towards the western limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harry Twinotter Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Looks like AR 1877 was the 'dark horse'. Were AR 1875 and AR 1877 connected magnetically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 24th 2013 Analysis of the past 6h Solar activity was high due to 3 M-class events, two originated from region 1875 and one, a bit surprisingly, from Active Region 1877. All three solar flares occurred shortly after each other: M1.47 from Active Region 1877: M3.13 from region 1875 immediately after the M1.47 flare: M9.36 from Active Region 1877: The two short M-flares from 1875 did produce a small CME, but imagery is still incomplete to give more precise information. During the day we'll get to know more information and this topic will be updated with further information. We do know that there is a small faint asymmetrical CME is on it's way from the M4 flare from a few days ago and from the first LASCO imagery also with the M2.7 flare from early october 23rd. The M9.36 solar flare from region 1877 had a short duration, it's uncertain if this event has an associated CME. It will be complex to determine this because the three M-class events happened so close to each other. From the first SDO imagery, some material is ejected away from the Sun but further analysis is needed. Interesting to see is that the M9 flare interacted with region 1875 but that region 1877 thrower the most material out as you can see in this SDO image during the event: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-65686300-1382592085.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-62306300-1382592147.jpg What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? M-class flares are possible from both region 1877 and 1875, we upgrade it from our last report with also a increasing chance for an X-class event. M-class flare probability: 70% chance X-class flare probability: 20% chance Analysis of region 1875 In the last 6h this region has changed again, keeping most of it's delta spots and creating new spots: It's magnetic complexity is strong enough for further M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare. Analysis of region 1877 Not totally in surprise is region 1877 which caused the M9 flare. As of yesterday afternoon the region developed a delta spot in the northern part of the region but was very quiet. But it was surprising that it unleashed an M9 flare. Let's take a look at the region: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-17229700-1382591458.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-25839800-1382591453.jpg The region developed more spots north of the regions dark leader spot, the delta spot still remains. Although it does not look so complex; M-class event is possible. Keep following us on our website and social channels for the latest updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 Looks like AR 1877 was the 'dark horse'. Were AR 1875 and AR 1877 connected magnetically? It looks like it, there was even a region on the eastern limb showing some brightening during the M9 flare... coincidence? Footage of the three flares will follow later on our social media channels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive ReportSolar Activity Update October 24th 2013Update 10h30 UTCJust moments ago an M2.57 flare occurred from region 1875, immediatly followed by an increase with a second flare: M3.58. It's still too early to tell if a CME was produced.The M2.5 flare:http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-37952100-1382610646.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-24071200-1382610647.png The M3.5 flare: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-21430000-1382612404.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-85680300-1382612404.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-19470400-1382612405.png Meanwhile in region 1875 the penumbral area has connected with the northern spots, meaning it's getting more and more complex. Further flares are expected with an increasing chance for an X-class event. A few very faint CMEs where observed in the past 24 hours associated with the flares from the previous 24 hours. The M9 CME was visible in LASCO imagery but was very faint in nature like the other ones. All the CMEs were weak and no major impacts are to be expected. Only minor enhancements in the solar wind and IMF data will be visible when they arrive at Earth. Also a CH HSS is about to arrive and may obscure the arrival of the weak CMEs. NOAA has set a G1 geomagnetic storm watch but due to the very faint nature of the CMEs and a the weak CH HSS, we expect only K-indices of 4 which stands for active geomagnetic conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Harry Twinotter Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 AR 1877 appears to have more development to the north. My money is on that one to produce are really big solar flare. Time will tell :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Solar Activity Update October 24th 2013 HOT update 14h45 UTC Region 1875 is losing many of it's spots in the eastern part of the region, penumbral area coverage however remains the same as it was this morning and in other parts of the region new spots emerged. The eastern part of the region is getting more compact and is squashing some delta spots with opposite polarity in the center of the eastern penumbral area. More M-class flares are likely and an low-level X-class flare can not be ruled out. The M9 flare from this morning had a very faint halo CME associated with it. An impact at earth is expected but the effects will be minimal. A video of the events from this morning: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wLLCnIBlp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 24, 2013 Share Posted October 24, 2013 AR 1877 appears to have more development to the north. My money is on that one to produce are really big solar flare. Time will tell :-) 1877 has only it's large leader spot going for him. It is complex but it misses compactness, something 1875 for sure has. Time will indeed tell. I don't care which one produces the flare to be honest, as long as we get our bright full halo CME. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 24, 2013 Author Share Posted October 24, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Solar Activity Update October 24th 2013 update 21h35 UTC What a day it was: Three M-class flares and 11 C-class flares from regions 1875, 1877 and 1882 (newly numbered). More about the flares in our previous updates.Analysis sunspot region 1875 The region starts losing more spots and is showing signs of slight decay, especially in the eastern part of the region. The penumbral area is also breaking apart. It lost 2 delta spots and gained 1 new, we have three small delta spots remaining, all in the eastern part of the region. The magnetic complexity is still high but as the region further decays, it might get les complex and produce less powerful flares. Analysis sunspot region 1877 Region maintained it's delta spot in the northern part of the complex. It was stable throughout the period with almost no change since the M9 flare. We don't expect major flares from this region. Analysis sunspot region 1882 This new region rotated onto the disk today, it's stil very close to the limb to get a clear view on it's magnetic structure. It was responsible for a few C-class flares today.What can we expect in the next 24h? Solar activity is expected to be high with possible M-class flares. If region 1875 continues to decay, the chances will get lower. There is also a slight chance for an X-class flare from region 1875. Regions 1877 and 1882 might produce only C-class flares with slight chance for M-class flares from region 1877. M-class flare probability: 45% chanceX-class flare probability: 5% chance SpaceWeatherLive Report Solar Activity Update October 25th 2013 update 05h10 UTC Region 1875 has decayed further over the night losing more penumbral area in the eastern part of the region; there are still delta spots remaining so the chances for an other M-class flare remain but are slowly decreasing as the region decays further. For a look at sunspot region 1882, which produced an M2.9 flare; read the update in a new topic in this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 26, 2013 Author Share Posted October 26, 2013 Region 1875 has got a bit jealous and produced a minor M-class flare peaking at M1.28 (further details in topic 1882 with the coinciding other M-flare). Looking at this region it has one delta spot which is in a good position because it's close to the spot with opposite polarity: Due to it's compactness it is capable of producing another M-class event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Solar Activity Update October 27th 2013 - 08h40 UTC Solar activity is at high levels with two major flares: an X1 and an M5.1 from region 1875. There was also an M1 flare from region 1877 that followed shortly after the M5.1 flare from region 1875. Below a video of the three events: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=537286533024938 The X1 flare produced a major CME that was visible on LASCO and both STEREO imagery, it appears as an asymmetrical full halo CME with an Earthward directed component. Most of the ejecta is directed away from Earth but a fair visible part is headed towards Earth. The first speed estimation gives it a speed of approximately 600km/sec, an impact can be expected as early as October 30th. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-39447900-1382950305.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-76589600-1382950306.gif A space radiation storm is also on it's way after the X1 eruption. Proton levels are on the rise and the S1 threshold might be reached later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 28, 2013 Author Share Posted October 28, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Solar Activity Update October 27th 2013 - 13h20 UTC A minor long duration M-class flare was observed from region 1877 which now nears the western limb. Together with 1875 they are the most active regions but not the most complex regions. Because this is a long duration event, it's likely that there will be an associated CME but confidence is low, we await further STEREO and LASCO data before we can tell for sure. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-27759800-1382965988.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-94470700-1382965988.png Both regions, 1875 and 1877 are in a phase of decay and lost many spots. 1877 lost it's delta structure too but they are still capable of producing strong flares. Also read our update on region 1882 and 1884.Update 14h30 An impulsive M2.82 was just observed from region 1875, due to the impulsive character no CME is expected from this event. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-17863900-1382970800.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-83739500-1382970800.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-12255600-1382970850.jpgUpdate 16h00 Busy times on the sun with active region 1875 erupting with an M1.97 flare long duration flare just moments after region 1882 erupted with a double M-flare. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-21045100-1382976556.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-82051000-1382976147.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-11519500-1382976148.png Looking at SDO imagery it's likely that this event will have an associated CME, a blob of plasma is being ejected into space. A further enhancement in the proton levels is expected, possibly exceeding S1. Update 21h10 Yet another M-class event took place just moments ago. It was an impulsive M1.52 solar flare from region 1875. Due to the location on the limb and it's short duration, we do not expect a significant CME and if there is a CME associated with the event, it will not be Earth directed. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-24530400-1382994682.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-03689300-1382994683.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-00340300-1382994686.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 29, 2013 Author Share Posted October 29, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Solar Activity Update October 29th 2013 - 22:50 UTC Sunspot region 1875 says goodbye today on the western limb and it's a worthy goodbye with a major X2.35 solar flare. This is the 5th strongest flare of the 24th solar cycle. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-85950800-1383086613.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-1-0-82218100-1383086628.png It was a medium long duration flare, a CME is likely associated with it. But due to it's notation near the limb it will nog be Earth directed. We will still await further imagery for confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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