Marcel de Bont Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 13th 2013 Active Region 1865 is a region which has been on the disk for a while and had a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout ever since it was visible. It was however rather quiet for a region with such a layout and our attention was mostly on Active Region 1861. That changed this past night when it produced an M1.7 solar flare which peaked at 00:47 UTC. A weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was launched by this event. On images from LASCO we see a partial halo CME with most of the ejecta heading well south of the ecliptic. There is a chance for a weak glancing blow but no substantial geomagnetic activity is to be expected from this event. A video can be seen below: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=529105643843027 Active Region 1865 still has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout but it looks to be slightly falling apart. Two clear deltas can still be found and the risk remains for another M-class solar flare from this region. Here is Active Region 1865 as it currently looks like. The deltas are indicated by arrows: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-42705200-1381666179.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-12677700-1381666180.jpg This group is now located near the center of the solar disk and will be in a good position for Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) the coming days.What can we expect the coming 24 hours? Active Region 1865 retains it's Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. C-class solar flares are likely from this region and it is complex enough to produce another M-class solar flare but the risk is not very high. M-class flare probability: 25% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system and Twitter account which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more.Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 15, 2013 Author Share Posted October 15, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 15th 2013 Active Region 1865 has overall slightly decayed over the past 48 hours but it did become very compact with two delta spots currently visible. One very large one and a smaller one in the east. It is a compact region with strong magnetic power coming from the spots as can be seen as the intense colors on the magnetogram. This magnetic tension made it restless. A background X-ray flux of B9 is being observed now and it erupted with multiple strong C-flares. Yesterday: C8.0 and today a C9.5 solar flare. At 09:00 UTC it produced it's strongest solar flare of the past 48 hours: an M1.1 solar flare. An exact value is not known as GOES was eclipsed by the Earth during the peak of the solar flare. The GOES XRS instrument picked up an X-ray flux of M1.12 when it could view the Sun again. A weak Coronal Mass Ejection is visible on the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 images but looks to be heading mostly towards the south. Here is Active Region 1865 as it currently looks like. The deltas are indicated by arrows: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-87493800-1381837032.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-89578900-1381837033.jpg The M1.1 solar flare https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=530446420375616 What can we expect the coming 24 hours? Active Region 1865 retains a compact Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. C-class solar flares are likely from this region and it is complex enough to produce another M-class solar flare. M-class flare probability: 35% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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