Marcel de Bont Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 11th 2013 Active Region 1861 is a region which has been growing fast over the past 48 hours and developed a complex Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. We see three magnatic delta structures of which the most eastern delta in the trailing portion of this group is the largest and most significant one. Two smaller deltas are located near the leader spot and in the central portion of the group. The entire group has significant magnetic mixing going on and is unstable. The background flux currently lies around the C1 level and C-class flares occur often. Two of these C-class flares were C5 solar flares at 04:10 UTC and 09:18 UTC. It's significantly complex magnetic layout (Beta-Gamma-Delta) poses a realistic threat for M-class solar flares. The pictures below show Active Region 1861 as it currently looks like. The delta spots are indicated by arrows. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-34119400-1381491665.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-34530400-1381491670.jpg This group is now located near the center of the solar disk and will be in a good position for Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) the coming days. This is a region to keep an eye on.M1.5 solar flare from old Active Region 1853 Unrelated to this Active Region but an event of moderate interest: an M1.5 solar flare occured today at 07:25 UTC. It was located just behind the eastern limb. This is likely old Active Region 1853. This region is currently on the eastern limb and will rotate onto the disk in the coming 24 hours. It will then receive a new number. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=527896163963975What can we expect the coming 24 hours? The background flux is high and Active Region 1861 is often producing C-class flares. There is a good chance that an M-class (R1 to R2) will occur during the next 24 hours from this region. X-class flares are at the moment unlikely but if this group keeps developing the way it is doing right now, it can not be ruled out. M-class flare probability: 55% chanceX-class flare probability: 15% chance We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system and Twitter account which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more.Donate and support this project so we can invest in heavier servers to give you a better experience on our site and can stay online during major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 12, 2013 Author Share Posted October 12, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 12th 2013 Solar activity was low since our last report. No M-class flares were detected after the M1.5 solar flare of the eastern limb. Active Region 1861 was however very active and produced countless of C-class flares of which five were high-level C-class flares. Yesterday (C5.5, C5.4, C6.3) and today two more: C5.2 and C5.4. If we take a look at Active Region 1861 right now we see a region which has lost much of it magnetic complexity. The polarities became better divided and it lost all but one delta spot. This delta spot is however struggling to hang on and it is like to disappear as well in the coming hours. It does posses large umbral spots on the sides which is worth noting. Sunspot region 1861 as it currently looks like: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-61710600-1381577633.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-35764300-1381577634.jpg The X-ray background flux has also fallen to around B6 which is lower than yesterday. Active Region 1861 is still producing low-level C-class on a regular basis but the chances for an M-class flare have dropped along with it's magnetic complexity. M-class flaring however can absolutely not be ruled out. Should it produce a strong solar flare anyway then a resulting CME is likely to be Earth-directed. It is currently in a perfect position for an Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection.What can we expect the coming 24 hours? Solar activity is likely to be low (regular C-class flaring) with a slight chance for an M-class flare from either 1861 or 1865. M-class flare probability: 25% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 13, 2013 Author Share Posted October 13, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity October 13th 2013 Active Region 1861 was quiet since our last report. No M-class flares were detected from this region. Active Region 1861 did produce some low-level C-class flares since our last report but nothing interesting. It again simplified in magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours and lost some spots. It's polarities are now nicely divided... which is bad news for solar flares. No delta spots are to be found anymore. Sunspot region 1861 as it currently looks like: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-32487900-1381662190.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_10_2013/post-94-0-87333100-1381662190.jpgWhat can we expect the coming 24 hours? It's lack of magnetic complexity makes it even an even lesser threat for solar flares than yesterday. 1861 could still produce an occasional C-class solar flare but the chance for an M-class flare from this region is low. M-class flare probability: 15% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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