oemSpace Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I would like to know which forecast will be more accuracy on when CME effects on Earth. One says on 9 Oct 00-06 UT, other say on 10 Oct 00 UT Does anyone have any suggestions? Thanks in advance for any suggestions :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Yesterday's CME impact (20:23 UTC October 8th) is likely the CME pictured on the image you provided. It was however a full day earlier than expected. CME impact times are very hard to predict and provided times are often only an approximate. It often happens that CMEs are faster or slower than expected. The NOAA prediction (.txt file screenshot) shows an updated prediction which was released after the CME already impacted our planet. The picture from ENLIL comes from a model run which was made well before the CME impacted our planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Like Marcel explains, it's very hard to determine an exact impact time. There is Always a large impact window of 6h before and after the estimated impact time.The Enlil model is only a model and calculates the CME path on an automated bae with what we already know about CME distributions. Models are no accurate thing but can only be trained to get more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oemSpace Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Yesterday's CME impact (20:23 UTC October 8th) is likely the CME pictured on the image you provided. It was however a full day earlier than expected. CME impact times are very hard to predict and provided times are often only an approximate. It often happens that CMEs are faster or slower than expected. The NOAA prediction (.txt file screenshot) shows an updated prediction which was released after the CME already impacted our planet. The picture from ENLIL comes from a model run which was made well before the CME impacted our planet. Does anyone have any suggestions on what kind of graph is getting closer to real-time data for CME's impact? so for a long period of forecast, I am still monitoring those given graphs, but keep an eye any other real-time graphs as CME gets closer to predicted date, so I would not miss it next time. Does anyone have any suggestions? Thanks everyone very much for any suggestions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carl Gruber Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 With our current capabilities, once a CME has been analysed and modelled (by either NASA or the NOAA), we have no further way to confirm it's speed and intensity until it reaches the ACE spacecraft. Therefore, the best way to monitor it's progression is to keep an eye on the solar wind parameters provided on SpaceWeatherLive which are recorded by ACE. Once a sudden impulse has been detected on these charts, it takes approximately 45 minutes to reach Earth. I hope that helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 Does anyone have any suggestions on what kind of graph is getting closer to real-time data for CME's impact? so for a long period of forecast, I am still monitoring those given graphs, but keep an eye any other real-time graphs as CME gets closer to predicted date, so I would not miss it next time. Does anyone have any suggestions? Thanks everyone very much for any suggestionslong period forecasts are worthless because you can't predict CME's.Like Carl sais there is no further way to now when it's getting closer. All we have is the EPAM monitor that can give us a sign when the CME is nearby ACE and an impact is imminent.@Carl: welcome on the SpaceWeatherLive forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Carl Gruber Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Thank you Vancanneyt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oemSpace Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Thanks, to everyone very much for suggestions :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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