Marcel de Bont Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity August 16th 2013 Active Region 1818 is a region which has been on the disk for a couple of days now but never really had a magnetic layout which was really worth mentioning. This changed yesterday evening when we saw the development of a magnetic delta structure. This growth has continued and we can see a reasonably sized delta structure north of it's leader spot. It is now a group with a Bèta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. While it did produce some low-level C-class flares yesterday, it has been fairly quiet today with no significant flares recorded. It's magnetic layout however suggests it doesn't have to be so quiet, it has the potential to produce a moderate (R1) flare. If it does flare, it is worth noting that this region is in a fairly good position to launch an earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection. The pictures below show Active Region 1818 as it currently looks like: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-30017000-1376643737.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-02580300-1376643739.jpgWhat can we expect the coming 24 hours? C-class solar flares are very much a possibility from this group and because of the magnetic delta structure, we can say there is a small risk for a moderate (R1) M-class solar flare. A larger flare will only be possible if the group continues to develop and ideally becomes a bit more compact but at the moment it's unlikely. M-class flare probability: 30% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 17, 2013 Author Share Posted August 17, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive ReportAnalysis of the Solar Activity August 17th 2013Not much changed within Active Region 1818 since our last report. It showed some slight decay in the central and trailing portions but the main leader spot and it's magnetic delta structure have not changed significantly and were stable. The delta spot did come slightly closer to the spot which has an opposite polarity which is a good development. 1818 retains it's Bèta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. The pictures below show Active Region 1818 as it currently looks like:http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-84264500-1376726868.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-71195900-1376726869.jpg1818 has been the only region which produced solar flares during the past 24 hours but they were all minor flares. Three C-class flares were observed, with a C2.6 solar flare being the strongest one recorded. It's magnetic layout still makes it a contender for an isolated low-level M-class solar flare, despite losing some penumbral mass as described earlier. This region is still in a relatively good position to launch an earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection but as time progresses, it rotates more and more out of view.What can we expect the coming 24 hours?Not a whole lot changed in this group since yesterday. We can expect an occasional C-class solar flare and there remains a slight risk for a low-level M-class flare. M-class flare probability: 25% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chanceWe will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 17, 2013 Author Share Posted August 17, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report M3.3 & M1.4 class solar flare Active Region 1818 finally erupted today with a M3.32 solar flare which peaked at 18:24 UTC. It is too early to tell if there was a Coronal Mass Ejection but considering the duration of the flare, it is very much possible. SDO/AIA 171A imagery also suggest that new loops are being rebuild and that indicate the old coronal loops have been blown away. If there is a CME then it is very much possible that it has an earth-directed component. At the time of writing, the flux is again crawling back into the M-class after dipping into the C-range for a few minutes. Keep follow us for the latest updates. Update: A M1.4 class solar flare was observed right after the M3 flare. The flux dropped into C-range but slowly climbed again and peaked at M1.4 shortly after. A Coronal Mass Ejection is now visible in the latest images but it will take a while before there are enough images available for a solid analysis. Because of the duration and location of these events we can not rule out that we see a proton storm later today. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-90000100-1376766932.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-24071400-1376767704.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-07990500-1376767741.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-25505600-1376768034.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-08141600-1376770712.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-25833300-1376771221.jpg If we take a quick look at 1818's current state we see it still has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. It actually has two delta's now. They are smaller then the delta first present, it's likely that it broke up into two delta structures. Another M-class solar flare remains possible. The pictures below show Active Region 1818 as it currently looks like: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-76457000-1376766933.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-99293100-1376766933.jpgWhat can we expect the coming 24 hours? Now with two deltas present we can not rule out another low-level M-class solar flare. M-class flare probability: 30% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted August 18, 2013 Author Share Posted August 18, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report M3.3 & M1.4 class solar flares Coronal Mass Ejection analysis Active Region 1818 erupted yesterday with two M-class solar flares. The first flare was a M3.3 solar flare. While the flux dropped back into the C-class it started to slowly rise again to peak a second time as a very long duration M1.4 solar flare. These flares were accompanied by a Coronal Mass Ejection. For more details about the flares please read our previous update.Coronal Mass Ejection analysis Because of the solar flare it's location we could already conclude relatively fast that a CME would likely have an earth-directed component. When the first STEREO images arrived we quickly saw a a bright and dense CME leaving the sun. Now it's more then 12 hours after the solar flares and we got enough footage to make a first analysis. We see a impressive and relatively fast Coronal Mass Ejection. Most ejecta will miss the Earth but there is a clear earth-directed component. A glancing blow will occur. The cloud of plasma left the sun around 1000km/sec. We did saw a slight increase in solar protons but they are expected to remain below storm levels. EPAM also responded which also suggest the cloud has an earth-directed part. Below you can view a video which was posted on our Facebook page. We see the M-class solar flares and the Coronal Mass Ejections. More information will follow regarding expected Kp-values and a time-window for a possible CME arrival. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=501976229889302How does Active Region 1818 look like right now? Active Region 1818 still has a clear Beta-Gamma-Delta layout. It currently has one delta spot north of it's leader spot but it did show a slight decay. These images how how AR 1818 currently looks like: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-47180900-1376820976.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-24020800-1376820977.jpgWhat can we expect the coming 24 hours? It's delta is still present so we can not rule out another low-level M-class solar flare. M-class flare probability: 25% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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