Active Region 1817

[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity August 12th 2013

 

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Active Region 1817 is a region which developed rapidly over the past 48 hours. It developed a very well defined magnetic delta structure yesterday evening which caused it to produce six C-class flares yesterday. A C6.7 and a C8.4 solar flare being the strongest flares. A very weak and slow CME was visible after the C8.4 solar flare in the LASCO imagery. We suspect it could have come from another source then the C8 flare because of the way the ejecta was released. STEREO data is incomplete at the time of writing to fully analyse the situation but even if it's earth-directed, it will not cause an increase in geomagnetic activity.

While still possessing a magnetic delta structure, it doesn't seem as compact anymore as during the high-level C-class flares. This explains why the only C-class flare we have seen today is a C1 flare around midnight UTC. The background flux lies around B3 currently, which is low. This signals that the magnetic tension in 1817 isn't as high as we'd like to see for a strong solar flare to occur. The pictures below show Active Region 1817 as it currently looks like:

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-04558100-1376302402.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-52993000-1376302402.jpg

Here is how AR 1817 looked like during the C8 solar flare from yesterday. Note how the delta structure is more compact here:

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-44214800-1376303378.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-70899400-1376303378.jpg

What can we expect the coming 24 hours?

C-class solar flares are likely from this group and because of the magnetic delta structure, we can say there is a small risk for a moderate (R1) M-class solar flare. Larger eruptions are only possible if the group continues to develop but are at the moment highly unlikely.

 

M-class flare probability: 25% chance

X-class flare probability: 1% chance

We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more.

[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Update

M1.5 solar flare / August 12th 2013

 

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Active Region 1817 (S22E17) has just produced a M1.52 solar flare which peaked at 10:41 UTC. It is to early to tell if there was a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with this event. We will post an update later with more information. This is the first M-class solar flare since July 3th 2013.

Event details:

Start:

10:21h UTC

Maximum:

10:41 UTC

End:

10:47 UTC

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-00464700-1376306504.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-47985500-1376308703.png

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=499372956816296&set=vb.133686703412514&type=2&theater

What can we expect later today?

It's only been a short while since our last update so not much has changed within the sunspot group. The region retains it's Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout and there remains a risk for another low-level (R1) M-class flare.

 

M-class flare probability: 25%

X-class flare probability: 1%

We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more.

[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity August 13th 2013

 

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It has been 24 hours since Active Region 1817 produced the M1.5 solar flare and we now have enough footage to analyse the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) it produced. Later in this post we analyse the changes in 1817 and see if we can expect more flares like this. We finally have enough footage to determine the path of the M1.5 solar flare it's Coronal Mass Ejection. We posted a video of the available footage on our Facebook page, the video can be found below.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=499808163439442

The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was slow and narrow. Analysis of both LASCO and STEREO footage suggest all of the ejecta will be heading south of the ecliptic and that the CME does not have an earth-directed component. EPAM supports this theory, with no increase in proton and electron levels on the charts. There was some ejecta visible with a northwards trajectory but that is a backside CME. The spikes are glitches which should be ignored.

This is bad news for aurora watchers, but there is also good news: parts of a very large northern hemisphere coronal hole has now crossed the central meridian of the sun, this means we will see an increase in geomagnetic activity in about 3 days thanks to the high speed solarwind stream coming from it.

What happened with Active Region 1817?

Solar activity has been at low levels the past 24 hours. The largest flare has been a C2.8 solar flare from departing Active Region 1809. The second strongest flare also came from 1809 and that was a C1.1 solar flare. We can conclude that things got quiet around 1817. But why? In the past 24 hours, 1817 was in slight decay and it's magnetic layout became more simple because of the way the leading and trailer spots moved away from each other while loosing penumbral mass in the center region. In the process it ripped apart it's delta spot. We can unfortunately now call this sunspot group a large but simple Beta group with clearly divided magnetic polarities. Below are some pictures showing Active Region 1817 as it currently looks like. Check our previous posts to compare the region with how it looked like 24 hours ago.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-91664900-1376397486.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-38792800-1376397487.jpg

 

What can we expect the coming 24 hours?

C-class solar flares are still possible from this rather large group. However, the way this group is developing now: slowly decaying and with only a simple magnetic layout we got to conclude that M-class flares are not very likely anymore.

 

M-class flare probability: 15% chance

X-class flare probability: 1% chance

We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more.

[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity August 14th 2013

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Things have been quiet around Active Region 1817 during the past 24 hours with only B-flares from this region. AR1817 again showed loss of penumbral mass in the central and trailing parts but there was some growth and consolidation of spots and penumbral mass growth within it's leading portion. There is some opposite (negative) polarity flux emerging south of the leading portion of this group since a few hours which could become interesting if growth continues but at the moment it is not interesting. This new flux would justify a Beta Gamma magnetic classification now. This development is however very minor and the magnetic mixing is not enough for large flares. On the images below we see AR1817 in it's current state:

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-18839400-1376475910.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_08_2013/post-94-0-52536800-1376475910.jpg

 

What can we expect the coming 24 hours?

This group showed no significant changes to warrant an increase or decrease for it's flare chances. While it is a Beta-Gamma group, it does not have enough polarity mixing to warrant an increase for flare chances. A C-class flare is possible, but M-class flares are unlikely.

 

M-class flare probability: 15% chance

X-class flare probability: 1% chance

We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions, comments, or maybe you have a different opinion? Then feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of strong solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejection impacts and much more.