Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity June 16th 2013 Analysis of the past 24h It where quiet times this month with barely any visible active regions on the visible Solar disk, the contrast with the very active mont May was big. But we are glad to announce that there has come an and to this silence with multiple new active regions that appeared in the last 48 hours on the southeastern border of the Sun with also some new developed regions in the same area. It looks like we can expect a new period, or is it too early to say this? The situation this afternoon: On the image above we can see the new regions that where numbered together with their magnetic spot polarity. The most interesting region is 1775 who'd looked to have a magnetic delta structure, but due to the proximity of the border of the Sun, it was too early to justify this. But when we look on the latest imagery (see below) we can tell that most regions where pretty stable but that there's been a huge difference in region 1775 compared to this afternoon with a big penumbral growth in the central part, forcing the faculae away with many new spots that developed within and a growing delta spot. This strong growth and the delta structure could be enough to produce an impulsive M-class flare... What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? The overall solar activity will be low with an increasing chance for an impulsive M-class flare from region 1775 due to the strong growth and delta structure. M-class flare probability: 30% chance X-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 Minor update this morning when we look at the regions development. It's really great to see that this regions evolve very rapidly and become even more complex. New delta structures are growing and also growth in penumbral size. The backgroundflux rises slowly to B7 with two very low C-class flare at this point. An M-class flare is possible as this region continues to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity June 17th 2013 Solar activity remained quiet today with only a few minor C-class flares. All spots remained stable except for region 1775 who developed quickly the past few days but still failed to produce a significant flare. Time to digg a bit deeper in the sunspot region and find a cause... When we look at the regions magnetic layout it reveals much of the magnetic complexity within this region with two profound delta spots who remained stable during the day and lots of new spots that developed in the central area of the region. Also a few minor delta spots grew in the northern part as well. The region is still developing and is magnetically complex enough to produce moderate flares (up to M-class). Let's hope the region activates itself and starts to produce some flares, we'll find out tomorrow... What can we expect in the next 24h? Solar activity will be low with a chance for an M-class event from region 1775. Chance for M-class flares: 30% Chance for X-class flares: 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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