Active Region 1755

[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Solar Activity Update May 20th 2013

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Yesterday we could already see that there was a bright Active Region hiding behind the eastern limb. It is old Active Region 1731. We saw C2.9, C1.5, C2.0, C4.2 and C9.9 solar flares coming from behind the limb and noticed a rise in the background X-ray flux. Last night around 05:25 UTC it erupted with a M1.7 solar flare. A Coronal Mass Ejection is now visible in the latest STEREO images. This Coronal Mass Ejection is not earth-directed. The region is now starting to rotate into view and that means that the coming days we will be able to see it's magnetic layout and judge it's flare potential.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-14506600-1369047227.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-10841800-1369047232.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-11435700-1369047249.png

 

What can we expect the coming 24 hours?

It is not possible yet to see how complex this region is but we can say that the eruptions must have been stronger because they all happened behind the eastern limb. The C9.9 solar flare must have been a M-class solar flare for example. We can safely say that more M-class flares from old Active Region 1731 are likely.

 

M-class flare probability: 45% chance

X-class flare probability: 10% chance