Active Region 1745

[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Solar Activity Analysis May 10th 2013

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Analysis of the past 24 hours

Solar activity is now moderate after four quiet days on the sun with only a few low-level C-class flares. The past evening and night we saw a rise in the background x-ray flux, signs that a new Active Region was approaching the eastern limb. This is old Active Region 1726 which despite it's size, remained fairly calm with only one small M-class flare when we last saw her.

On May 9th 2013 around 23:16 UTC we already saw a C9 class-flare which was followed just 2 hours later on May 10th with a M3.9 class solar flare. This last solar flare, the M3.9, occurred just behind the solar limb so it could have been an even bigger event. None of these flares had a CME associated with them.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-66443000-1368176216.gifhttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-63679400-1368176232.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-66859200-1368176236.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-00278200-1368180966.jpg

 

What can we expect in the upcoming 24 hours?

The region is now rotating on the visible solar disk but it is not possible yet to tell how it looks like magnetically. The next few days we will see the region rotating towards earth and it will be possible to see it's magnetic layout. We still have to wait 6 days for earth directed eruptions, we can only hope that the region stays active for so long.

 

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M-class flare probability: 35% chance

X-class flare probability: 1% chance

 

 

We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions or comments? Feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of solar flares, CME impacts and much more.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Solar Activity Update May 10th 2013

 

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Solar Activity remains high with returning region 1726 which keeps producing C-class flares and an other M1.37 flare. No CME is expected from this event.

 

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At the moment only the leader spot is visible which is quiet big in umbral and penumbral size. Magnetically it's still to early to determine the precise configuration until all spots are visible. But with an increased background flux of B8 and multiple flares, there will be no doubt about further flare activity.

 

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[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Solar Activity Analysis May 11th 2013

 

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Analysis of the past 24 hours

It is very quiet around old Active Region 1726 which now carries number 1745. It seemed very promising when it announced itself with a M3-class solar flare but after one final M1-class solar flare it stayed rather quiet with only a few low C-class flares. Now that we completely see the region it became clear why it's so quiet:

 

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We see a large leader spot with large penumbral coverage but there are very few spots surrounding the large leader spot. While it did remain fairly stable today and showed no obvious growth or decay, it did became clear that Active Region 1745 is surrounded by faculae and that is not a good sign. It often indicates that a region is decaying. While there is still some minor polarity mixing going on in this group, a strong solar flare is unlikely but not impossible.

 

The most interesting event from today came from a new sunspot group in the southwest which has yet to be numbered. It produced the highest flare of the day, a C8.0 flare. This flare did not create a Coronal Mass Ejection. When this group rotated on the visible solar disk it only had one large spot with some faculae around it. However, this group started to grow very rapidly the past 18 hours and now contains multiple spots. More activity from this region is possible if it continues to grow. The x-ray background flux lies currently around B9.

 

EDIT: This group now has number 1746.

 

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Another growing region is Active Region 1741. While it didn't grow so fast and so much as the region we discussed above, it does show some minor polarity mixing. There are however no spots associated yet with the zone in the middle where positive polarity can be observed. Only the western side of this region currently has visible spots with positive polarity  This region is not capable of producing strong solar flares but an isolated C-class flare is possible if it keeps developing.

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-82950300-1368308802.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-27613800-1368308799.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-20199200-1368308805.jpg

 

What can we expect in the upcoming 24 hours?

C-class flaring is likely from both Active Region 1745 and Active Region 1746. There remains a slight chance for a M-class event from both of these regions.

M-class flare probability: 30% chance

X-class flare probability: 1% chance

[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Solar Activity Update May 13th 2013

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Let's not forget about this region. Everybody's attention is now going to the new region which is releasing M and X-class flares but Active Region 1745 is also growing with lot's of new spots in the south-western part. A magnetic mix is starting to develop there which could cause some eruptions.

We also now see two small magnetic delta structures which could cause further activity, an impulsive M-class flare is now possible. This region did produce a few small C-class flares today.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Solar Activity Update May 22 2013

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Due to a datagap we almost missed a big event in the making around sunspot region 1745 which erupted this afternoon with a strong M7 class solar flare. This region is now located near the western limb. Immediately after the eruption, a moderate space radiation storm arrived at Earth (these protons are accelerated with the flare to a almost the speed of light and arrive thus very early at Earth). The S2 class space radiation storm peaked just moments ago.

With the flare, a very big and bright Coronal Mass Ejection was visible in both STEREO A and B imagery which could mean the CME is partially Earth directed. The EPAM monitor also showed a sharp rise with the flare and could confirm that we might expect an impact in one of the coming days.

The first LASCO imagery indicate that most of the material is directed away from us but from the latest difference images there is a weaker part visible (partial halo) that is Earth directed but as always we will wait until all LASCO imagery is available to determine the exact CME trail. As of our first analysis the CME speed lies around 1500km/sec.

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-57449100-1369238306.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-59428000-1369238310.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-24858700-1369238317.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-17763300-1369239121.jpg

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=461361283950797

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=461366300616962

Keep following us for latest updates!

[Marcel de Bont]

We now have more LASCO footage available, time for a closer look at the Coronal Mass Ejection from the M7 solar flare:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=461469643939961

 

As was clear from the beginning, most of the ejecta will be heading west and away from earth but we can expect a glancing blow around May 25th. There is a weak component visible (in blue) that is coming towards us. We can speak of an asymmetric full halo CME, but we have to keep in mind that only a weak part will hit us. To compare: it will be comparable to the small impact that we saw from the X-class flares of last week.

 

The proton storm has been gaining in strength after a slow drop. LASCO images show the protons that are hitting the sensor right now which cause white noise in the images.

 

PS: SIDC confirms what we mentioned in our analysis.