Vancanneyt Sander Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Solar Activity Analysis May 3rd 2013 Analysis of the past 24h Solar Activity reached high levels today with two unsuspected M-class solar flares that occurred this evening. First there was a minor M1.35 class solar flare that put on a small show: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-82160100-1367619331.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-18118900-1367619335.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-62502500-1367620112.jpg But that was just nothing compared to what followed in the hour after the M1 flare. A major M5.71 flare bursted from old region 1725: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-1-0-61301200-1367619400.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-81931900-1367935116.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-28885900-1367620121.jpg This new region appeared on the limb this morning and was the region that produced multiple CME's when it was still on the farside of the Sun. Now the region is visible onto the visible solar disk we can get a sneak peak of the magnetic configuration of the region. Because it's still near the limb it will get a Beta classification but from the first magnetogram images there is polarity intermixing in the leader spots that might be sufficient enough for more activity. The new region will be numbered as 1739. The M5.71 flare was strong enough to blast a giant blob of hot plasma into space resulting in a bright coronal mass ejection that left the sun with a speed above 1000km/sec. This CME will not be geoeffective due to it's position. The CME could be viewed very easily in the SDO imagery: Shortly after there was also a filament eruption just south of the region. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? M-class flares are possible from both 1731 and 1739. M-class flare probability: 40% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions or comments? Feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of solar flares, CME impacts and much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report SpaceWeatherLive Solar Activity Update May 4th 2013 Almost 24 hours have passed since the M1 and M5 solar flares from yesterday. Active Region 1739 caused the strongest flare but the region was still too close to the limb to really see how it's magnetic layout looked like. If we take a look at the visual white-light images of the sun, we see that the area since it became visible grew a lot of new spots in the southern area of the region with also a large increase of penumbral coverage. Magnetically we can now better see how the region looks like and as we suspected yesterday, there are delta structures to be found in this region. We see one around the leader spot as we mentioned yesterday but it's rather small. More centrally located in the area we see a much stronger delta structure. There are also places within the area that have opposing magnetic polarities but don't have a spot or they are still separated. On the images below you see the most interesting areas with an indicating of the different polarities for each spot. To sum it all up: the region is magnetically very complex. It gained many spots and the new delta structures increase the chances for strong solar flares. An X-class flare is possible. Update C5.6 flare at 12:36 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report SpaceWeatherLive Solar Activity Update May 5th 2013 Today we take another look at Active Region 1739 and see how it developed since our last report. The group lost some penumbral area but we can find three delta spots which are indicated by arrows on the image below. The delta structure in the north of the region is the most interesting one where two spots of opposite polarities are pretty close to each other, this delta structure is also the strongest one. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-73775100-1367763030.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-16210100-1367763031.jpg The group has been restless the past 18 hours with two C5+ (C8.0 & C8.4) flares and many smaller C-class flares. The largest flare it produced was a C8.4 flare at 06:43 UTC which you can see on the image below. These were impulsive flares and did not have Coronal Mass Ejections associated with them. The background flux is currently at B6. What can we expect in the upcoming 24 hours? Due to the complexity of this region we can expect minor M-class flares and a very slight chance of a X-class event. M-class flare probability: 35% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted May 5, 2013 Author Share Posted May 5, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Solar Activity Update May 5th 2013 Synopsis past 24h It was a very active day, solar activity reached moderate levels with an impulsive M1.4 flare from region 1739 and more than a dozen C-class flares from regions 1739 and also one from 1734. None of these flares where accompanied by a Coronal Mass Ejection. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-20784200-1367935000.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-95158400-1367934996.png 1739 This area had the most activity today but visually this regions doesn't look impressive, the sunspots are very small and region 1738, just north of the region, has a bigger spot than in 1739. The region is in decay today and lost more spots and penumbral area and smaller spots. Due to this, the background flux is also lower than yesterday around B5. Although we'd seen multiple C-class flares and an M-flare from this region, it's magnetic complexity has also dropped to only one delta spot. The chances for a major flare are getting very low. 1734 Why do we mention this region in the update, not because it's the biggest region on the visible solar disk but also because there is something interesting happening. This area produced a rather small C-class flare and possible we could see some more activity from this region in the next 24 hours. The magnetic complexity has gotten bigger... A small spot is visible in the big penumbral area between the two biggest sunspots. This small spot has an opposite polarity and thus is a delta spot, it's still small but it can get interesting if it's developing further. This was also the location where the small C-class flare occurred. Also, in the small sprouts around the region there is also a small spot of opposite polarity but due to it's location this is not very noteworthy. We can conclude by saying this region, if the delta spot grows, could give some new activity from this region. What can we expect in the next 24h? 1739 will be the main region from where activity will happen but we do not expect major activity. Only at maximum a small M-class flare is possible. 1734 can contribute to the C-class activity from region 1739. M-class flares: 25% chance X-class flares: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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