Marcel de Bont Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity April 29th 2013 Analysis of the past 24h Solar activity was low today but we did had more then 12 little C-class flares, the strongest being a C5.9 flare from AR1730. The two most complex regions are now AR1730 and AR1731. AR1731 still has a weak delta structure but it's still not a real compact area which is why it is only able to produce small C-class flares now. AR1730 now has three clear delta spots and provides the best chances for a moderate flare. The C5.9 flare of just moments ago demonstrates this perfectly. On the above image you can see the three delta spots. There might have been a CME associated with the C5.9 flare but it's too early to confirm this as there are no images available yet. When the images come, we will be able to see if we might have 2 CME's coming. After the C5 there was also a long duration C1 flare from AR1731. C5.9 flare: The new region on the eastern limb looks magnetically complex but because of it's location it's not yet really possible to tell how it's magnetic layout looks. The region is however surrounded by faculae and that often means it is in decay. Nonetheless, it seems like there is still a good magnetic mix in the main spot. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? We expect another day with many C-class flares, mainly from AR1730, AR1731 and AR1734. There remains a small chance for a M-class flare, mainly from AR1730 and AR1734. M-class flare probability: 30% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions or comments? Feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of solar flares, CME impacts and much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Update Analysis of the past 24h Active Region 1730 has been slowly decaying the past 24 hours. It did produce two C5+ events: C9.6 and C5.5. The delta structures in this region decayed significantly but are still there. Right now there are two delta spots but they might decay the coming hours. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-29712400-1367422114.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-46588200-1367421838.jpg What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Even though AR1730 still has a Bèta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout, we shouldn't expect big flares from it. It's magnetic complexity is just not big enough to produce large solar flares. It is likely that the region continues to decay. During this process we might see some small flares. M-class flares are possible but unlikely. M-class flare probability: 30% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dom Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Very informative and useful ! Thanks Marcel ! DOM :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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