Marcel de Bont Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report When Active Region 1731 showed up on the eastern limb it looked like an impressive region. The first thought was however that it was in decay because of all the faculae around it. As time passed, most of the faculae started to disappear and the region started to grow more spots. Over night, the region continued to evolve and especially in the central part it grew a lot of new spots. What we see now is that a weak magnetic delta structure has formed in the northern part which increases the chance for flares but as of now it is too weak to cause strong solar flares. We can expect multiple C-class flares from this region today and there will be a small chance for an M-class event. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=451129918307267 We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions or comments? Feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of solar flares, CME impacts and much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Update Analysis of the past 24h We can see some spot movement in Active Region 1731. The region looks to be stable and does not really seem to be growing or decaying. The region has a clear Bèta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. We can find a total of 4 delta structures but they are not very strong. This region produced a C6.6 flare today which peaked at 14:14 UTC. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-34352400-1367420875.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-97137400-1367420878.jpg C6.6 flare: What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Despite the delta structures we can't expect very strong solar flares from this region. The magnetic mix is just not strong enough for that. More C-class flares are likely with a small possibility for a M-class event. M-class flare probability: 30% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted May 2, 2013 Author Share Posted May 2, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity May 2nd 2013 Analysis of the past 24h This morning around 05:10 UTC, Active Region 1731 erupted with a M1.1 solar flare. The Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that was associated with the event had a speed of only 300 km/s and is not earth directed. This CME will not increase geomagnetic activity here on earth. In the bottom of this post you will find a YouTube video of this event. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-05106700-1367524393.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-24178600-1367524396.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-82505100-1367524398.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-94-0-18724800-1367524401.jpg If we take a look at the group itself then we see that the region lost some penumbral area and spots. The region also lost some of it's magnetic complexity. We can only find one delta structure and it's very weak. It could disappear the coming hours. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Even though the region still has a magnetic delta structure we can not expect large solar flares from this region. It is likely that the region continues to decay the coming hours. C-class flares remain possible but M-class flares are getting more and more less likely. M-class flare probability: 15% chance X-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.