Tim De Blanck Posted April 20, 2013 Share Posted April 20, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity April 20th 2013 In these images we can see how fast region 1726 and 1727 have been evolving the past day. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-125-0-38421900-1366480813.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-125-0-21266900-1366480850.jpg The left picture has been taken April 19th 2013 around 5:00 UTC and shows the sunspot right when it started to emerge. The picture on the right shows the sunspots like they were today around 9:00 UTC. Active Region 1726 Below is the magnetogram from 1726. We can see that the region is getting more complex, the red (negative polarity) and blue (positive polarity) areas are mixed up with each other and that can cause flares. This region has already been producing some minor C-class flares the past day. Active Region 1727 Below is the magnetogram from 1727. This region is also developing fast but it is less complex then region 1726. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? It is likely that both of the regions will develop further. From 1726 we can expect more small flares (C-class) because of the magnetic complexity in the region. 1727 however is less complex then 1726 but we can also see some small flares from this sunspot. There is a small chance for a M-class event but it is not very likely at this point. We will continue to monitor the activity and post updates on the forum, Facebook, Twitter and Google+. Keep following us for the latest information. Got questions or comments? Feel free to post in this topic and we will do our best to help you out! We also have an email alert system which informs you of solar flares, CME impacts and much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Update Active Region 1726 has continued to develop the past night and has increased in magnetic complexity. Two clear delta spots have emerged within the core of the region which can cause a strong solar flare. There is even a small chance for a X-class flare at this point if the delta structure doesn't weaken or disappear. The background flux has also been rising the past hours and now hovers now around B7. We also saw some small C-class flares and a possible weak, earth directed CME. EPAM supports this, it is difficult to see on LASCO as there have been a couple of impressive far side Coronal Mass Ejections. The ENLIL model also shows this CME: http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/wsa-enlil The eruption with the CME of this morning: UPDATE: The protonflux has risen a bit because of the CME from this morning but it is still below storm levels and expected to remain so. A rise up to a S1 storm is not likely. CME impact is expected for tomorrow but this might be a bit early. The impact will not be very noticeable High latitude sky watchers will get a nice show however, the IMF is expected to be negative (south). A KP of 4 is expected around April 22/23th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Update Let's take a quick look at the most recent images from SDO and see how 1726 has developed the past 6 hour. The region seems rather calm with only a few C-class flares but the background flux has risen to around B9. 1726 again underwent some drastic changes and the small delta structure from this morning has grown to a large spot near the main leader spot. We count a total of 3 delta spots in this region now. The newest delta spot is located in the west-side of this region and while it is not very big it is squeezed between 2 spots with negative polarity. The structure of this region is now so complex that a X-class flare is possible. M-class flare probability: 50% chance X-class flare probability: 15% chance Proton storm: 30% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Update After a long time of being relatively quiet, Active Region 1726 finally erupted with a moderate M1 solar flare. The eruption was very impulsive and that means there was no CME associated with it. Now that we have more footage of the flare it becomes very clear that the M1 flare came from where the strong delta spot is located. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-49682600-1366644007.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-81409000-1366644013.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-50997300-1366644018.png 9371f5131ea885ffb84d325506d8c8ed The delta spot did rotate a bit the past hours and tries to dig itself in the core of the leader spot. This could have caused the impulsive M1 flare. On the other side of the group we also noticed something interesting. A small line with reversed polarity and a very tiny spot within the penumbral area, is also trying to make a way trough the core of the eastern main spots. This delta spot is however very small and thus weak and will not cause strong flares soon. A bit more to the west, in the center of the area there is also something going on in the penumbral area of a spot with reversed polarity but no visible spot. If a spot develops here then we again see a strong magnetic structure that could cause flares. If a spot would develop in this area, this could lead to a stronger magnetic complexity in this region and could mean an increase in the chances of a flare. To clarify this a bit, here is an image with the conflicting zones and the current delta spots: AR1726 with it's huge coronal loops: Update 20:23 UTC: Polarity of every single spot. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-12417600-1366662276.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-74864500-1366662278.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim De Blanck Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity April 25th 2013 Analysis of the past 24hRegion 1726 will start to rotate of the visible solar disk the coming days. This region was the source of many C-class flares and only one impulsive M1 flare the past few days. The region lost much of her magnetic complexity and the last delta spot has also disappeared now. 1726 also lost a lot of her other spots and is starting to be covered in faculae which means the region is starting to decay. http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-125-0-51032700-1366897604.jpghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-125-0-69822400-1366897593.jpg What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Because this region lost all of her delta spots, there is almost no risk anymore for strong solar flares. It will be classified as having a Bèta-Gamma magnetic configuration.M-class flare probability: 15% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Video The past week we observed the rapid development of a promising new region on the sun. The region received NOAA number 11726. Over time it grew numerous delta spots and it started to look like there was finally a region with the potential to produce X-class solar flares. The region however, was rather disappointing when it came to strong solar flares. While it did produce over 60 C-class flares, it only produced one M-class solar flare. A very impulsive M1.00 class flare. On our YouTube channel we have a video to honor this once so interesting region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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