Active Region 1718

[Marcel de Bont]

A magnetic delta structure developed in the central part of AR1718. The chance of for significant flare is increasing...



See here all the current active regions on the sun.

[Marcel de Bont]

SpaceWeatherLive Report

Analysis of the Solar Activity April 12th 2013

 

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It took a long time before AR1718 produced a M-class flare. Ever since the fast growth which started on the 8th of April, this complex region was not able to create a serious solar flare. This region however was quite busy today. The background flux stayed high and it errupted with a few C-class flares. This region also continued to grow a bit and has a complex magnetic structure. It was only a matter of time before this region would create a significant flare. There is almost certainly a CME associated but we can not discuss this yet because there are no images available yet. There is a chance for an earth-directed CME but we will tell more about that in our next update.

 

The star of the show today was AR1718 but what about AR1719 that caused the M6.51 flare? The magnetic delta structure in the southeastern part of the region is unfortunately weakening a bit. This region also looks not so bright as yesterday and it is a smaller treath for large flares then it used to be.

What can we expect in the upcoming 24h?

AR1718 is the region to keep an eye on, more M-class flare are still possible.

 

M-class flare probability: 50% chance

X-class flare probability: 5% chance

 

http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-75165200-1365804156.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-53983800-1365804159.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-75171600-1365804162.jpg

[Marcel de Bont]

The CME that was launched after the M3.3 flare is not earth directed. LASCO confirms this.