Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity April 5th 2013 Finally there has come an end to the quiet period the Sun has been through. It came already clear yesterday when bright magnetic loops appeared on the eastern limb and a long duration C-class flare. Today this region rotated on the limb but it is not yet rotated fully into view so we can not determine the exact complexity. This evening (UTC hours) this region flared a moderatly strong M2.29 class Solar flare with a non earth directed CME. LASCO and STEREO data are not yet available to determine the details of the CME, due to the position of the flare, this is not Earth directed. And what with the other regions on the visible solar disk? Region 1713 remained quiet and retains some magnetic complexity but didn't evolve much the last 24 hours and it looks like both magnetic parts are moving away from each other. 1711 looks very much like a unipolar spot and is no threat for flares. 1715 and 1708 are almost completely disappeared after some fast growth in the past days. We can also welcome many new and yet unnumbered regions. The Sun is peppered with fresh spots but most of them are not yet big enough and won't get a number yet. One region in particular is very noteworthy, just east from 1714 is a fast growing region and caused some minor flares already and magnetically it looks like it has some minor polarity intermixing; so this one could mean something in the following days if this fast growth keeps going. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Because the new region is not rotated fully into view yet, it's hard to give any numbers on how much the chances are for M-class flares. Due to the flare this evening, there remains a threat for M-class flares but we'll know more tomorrow when it's rotated fully into view. M-class flare probability: 20% chance X-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joeri Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Video derived from our youtube channel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 6, 2013 Author Share Posted April 6, 2013 The x-ray background flux went up since the M-class flare yesterday and we know the Sunspot numbers that had been given to the new regions. The region that produced the M2.29 flare yesterday is numbered as 1719 and is now rotated fully into view. The region is covered in faculae and that doesn't look promising, the magnetic map of this region does show some magnetic complexity but the best part of the sunspot is rather gone. We do expect more C-class flares but an M-class flare from this regions looks very small.In our update last night we mentioned a fast growing region to the east of 1714, it has been given number 1718 and it's development overnight went on and is now a magnetically complex region with a good mix of polarities and is a threat for C-class flares. If this fast development continues, this region might get very interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 6, 2013 Author Share Posted April 6, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity April 6th 2013 Analysis of the past 24h It was a calm day, but not so quiet as we saw the past weeks. Today we saw many low level C-class flares coming from regions 1711, 1718 and 1719. Those are the regions with the most potential on the visible solar disk. The background flux is around B4 level. Let's begin the update with 1719, this was the region responsible for the M2 flare from yesterday. Although the region does not look impressive because it is covered in faculae, it mentioned to flare with multiple C-class flares. The reason for that is that a region of positive polarity is squashed between spots of the opposite polarity which causes the flares. 1718 is a region that developed quickly yesterday and maintained a growth today and did flare some low-level C-class flares today. If expansion persist, more activity will come. Magnetically there is polarity intermixing so more C-class flares can occur. 1711 stays an impressive spot with many minimini spots in the southeastern part with many light arcs that where visible in the imagery but there's not more to tell about this one ;-) What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? M-flare is a low possibility. C-class flares are very likely with most chances from region 1718 and 1719. M-class flare probability: 20% chance X-class flare probability: 1% chance If you are subscribed to our YouTube channel you saw some new videos appear on the channel, check them out and subscribe. This one is from this evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joeri Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Rapport Analysis solar activity April 11, 2013 What happened past 24h? On April 11th, 2013, sunspot region AR1719 produced an M6,51 class solar flare. When this area turned further onto the solar disk, there appeared to be a large plage around the region, something what refers to a fading region. However, in this case the plages referred to a growing region. Also the magnetic field of the sunspot region was growing. At the moment, this region has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, and this resulted into a powerful M6,5 class solar flare. Probably, there was a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with this solar flare, which will be Earth-directed due to the position of the sunspot region on the solar disk. More information later. What can we expect the following 24h ? There will be a chance for another M class solar flare, especially by AR1719 or otherwise, by AR1718. M-class flare probability: 25% chance X-class flare probability: 5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted April 11, 2013 Author Share Posted April 11, 2013 CME analysis The M6.51 flare of this morning was associated with a large and bright coronal mass ejection with an Earthward component. Immediatly after the flare, the EPAM monitor gave us a good sign that the CME was associated with an Earthward component. SDO pinhole imagery showed a very clear flare as well as on the STEREO A and B satellites, these satellites also indicated a full halo CME. A radiation storm is now in progress, S1, but can increase to S2 in the afternoon. LASCO images are not fully available but we get a good hint on the distribution of the CME. A very bright protion is headed towards the west (away from Earth) but still a clear full halo CME was visible so a less brighter part is heading towards Earth. The initial CME speed is calculated around 1000km/sec. Will the Middle Latitudes get aurora this weekend? There is a fair chance for the upper Middle Latitudes but it's still a bit early to speak about chances. We'll keep on monitoring the data and provide details in a later bulletin. An early impact window can be opened from Saturday morning till the afternoon (UTC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Vidcast 2 - Solar Activity roundup April 11th with the M6.51 flare! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joeri Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 Here also a new video of the M6,5 class solar eruption: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Rapport Analysis solar activity April 18th, 2013 What happened past 24h? 1719, the active region that entertained us the past weeks with two M flares (M2.29 & M6.51) says goodbye with a long duration C6.54 flare. It might have even been a bigger flare because the region was already of the visible solar disk. We will never know. The region produced a nice CME but it is not earth directed. Goodbye 1719! http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-22098300-1366317059.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-90919700-1366317062.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-83760000-1366317067.pnghttp://www.spaceweatherlive.com/community/uploads/monthly_04_2013/post-94-0-67163200-1366317070.jpg What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? Not much to expect the upcoming 24 hours. All visible regions are either stable or slowly decaying. The chances for noteworthy flares are very low. Check out all sunspot groups here.M-class flare probability: 10% chanceX-class flare probability: 1% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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