Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch - 16-17 March 2013 Solar Activity and Geophysical Activity Summary On March 15th we saw a long duration M-class eruption around AR1692 and AR1696. A filament erupted between these two areas and ejected a large Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) out into space towards earth. This eruption happened near the central of the solar disk when the M1 eruption occurred. On the LASCO imagery we saw a perfect full halo CME. The largest part went northeast of the ecliptic but a good portion was earth directed. The speed of the CME was not so clear at this moment due to data gaps. Judging by the STEREO imagery the speed of the CME lies around 1000km/sec, according to the LASCO images the speed could be about 1400km/sec; this difference in the speed will play a large role when it comes to deciding the aurora chances for specific regions. It is not easy to decide when the CME arrives because of this. More details about the eruption can be found Synopsis Auroral Activity chances Will there be a chance for the middle latitudes? That is the big question and for now it remains hard to say. ENLIL indicates a very early arrival, tomorrow evening. ENLIL judges that the CME left the sun with a speed of 1400km/sec; STEREO however judges that it was a bit slower: about 1000km/sec. The time frame that we can expect an impact is from Saturday evening 22h UTC until Sunday 12h UTC. For Europe, if the CME arrives early then there will be a chance, if it comes later then it's likely there will be no chances. It's going to be a lot of now-casting. The EPAM-monitor will let us know when the CME gets close to Earth. How heavy will the storm be... At impact the CME will have a speed of about 800km/sec if it's arrival time is early. The question however remains: what will the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) do? At the moment it looks like the direction of the will be Northward and this will halt the development of a strong geomagnetic storming. It is however possible that there will be periods of a southward component after the impact and this could start a brief geomagnetic storming. KP7 is not completely impossible if conditions get favorable. What does this mean for the middle latitudes? For visual aurora, this impact looks like it is going to be too weak. However: for photographic aurora there is most certainly a possibility. A lot will depend on the parameters after the impact. Attention: only after the impact it will be really possible to decide what the chances will be! All times in this article are in UTC. Low Latitudes: 5% chance Middle Latitudes: 30% chance High Latitudes: 90% chance Low, Middle and High Latitude help topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joeri Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 If you have pictures of the Northern or Southern lights and you are a member of this forum, you can post them into our gallery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward Louckx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Here in Mikkeli, Finland 61° 41′N clear weather forecast until Monday morning. I'll keep my eyes and camera pointed to the sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Here in Mikkeli, Finland 61° 41′N clear weather forecast until Monday morning. I'll keep my eyes and camera pointed to the sky!Hello Ward Louckx, welcome to the SpaceWeatherLive forums. Great to hear that you will probably have clear skies! We look forward to your pictures and observations. I'm in Sweden and the forecasts here are not so good as for you but who knows! Let's hope the CME arrives in a good time frame for us. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 The EPAM monitor shows us that the CME is on track for a late night impact, it is just below event-level. I do expect we will surpass the S1 class space radiation storm and it could be strengthen a bit more just before impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 EPAM showed us very good when we could expect the impact with a fast rise around 5 o clock UTC time. And a bit past 5 we saw the impact. The solar wind rose with over 170km/sec to 611,3 sec; the solar wind increased an hour later to 720km/sec. Our alert system was a bit confused with the very fluctuating strength of the IMF and solar wind speed and thus generated three impact alerts. It's very hard to calculate if the solar wind and IMF fluctuate so hard. We apologize for the multiple alerts. A G2 moderate geomagnetic storm is currently in progress due to the ongoing strong southward direction of the IMF. It still fluctuates between north and south but it would be sufficient for nice storming above high latitude regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward Louckx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 On my location it was already bright daylight at that time (5UTC, 7AM local). so I was not able to capture any Northern lights. How long do this conditions normally stay? It get's dark here again at 17UTC, probably that will be too late I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 we'll have to wait and see how long the storm will last. We'll have to monitor and re-evaluate this evening how big the chances are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 The direction of the IMF is now north and will bring a halt to strong geomagnetic storming. The strength of the IMF is also weakening and is now moderate in strength. The chances for this evening are getting lower but we remain alert.Performance mode is now active on the forum to lower the load on the server due to massive amount of visitors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 On my location it was already bright daylight at that time (5UTC, 7AM local). so I was not able to capture any Northern lights. How long do this conditions normally stay? It get's dark here again at 17UTC, probably that will be too late I assume. You are on a high latitude so there is a chance that there is still enough activity tonight to see some aurora. Keep an eye on the data and your local magnetometers. It's hard to say how long these conditions last, but for high latitudes there is absolutely a chance. I will also be around to keep an eye out, but for me the weather is a problem here in Sweden at the moment. Is the weather better there in Finland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward Louckx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 You are on a high latitude so there is a chance that there is still enough activity tonight to see some aurora. Keep an eye on the data and your local magnetometers. It's hard to say how long these conditions last, but for high latitudes there is absolutely a chance. I will also be around to keep an eye out, but for me the weather is a problem here in Sweden at the moment. Is the weather better there in Finland? For the moment the weather forecast says clear skies until 12~02 local time >> Let's hope they are correct here. Hopefully you get some gaps between those clouds as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is weakening, this could mean that the storm will subside in the forthcoming hours. High latitude skywatchers will have a show tonight but not as great as Canada and northern US states.We will continue to monitor the situation closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 For the moment the weather forecast says clear skies until 12~02 local time >> Let's hope they are correct here. Hopefully you get some gaps between those clouds as well. Very nice. Keep an eye out the coming hours, it is looking good for sky watchers in Scandinavia/Finland. Bz is keeps it's moderately strong south component right now and if it continues like this, sky watchers on high latitudes are in for a nice show. If you manage to snap some pictures tonight please share them with the community by uploading them to our gallery. I wish you a good hunt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 For the high latitude watchers: I just watched outside (Sweden) and saw a very clear green band right overhead. Ward Louckx, I am sure you can see aurora to right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward Louckx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I just came inside, cause my toes are frozen. I already had a spectacular show! We were on a roof, at the edge of our city, waiting for the sun to set. First really low, only photographic lights, but then they became clear and then we got a huge show of dancing curtains, green and purple. I have some photographs, first time I did that so they are not that high quality, but I'll post them later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I just came inside, cause my toes are frozen. I already had a spectacular show! We were on a roof, at the edge of our city, waiting for the sun to set. First really low, only photographic lights, but then they became clear and then we got a huge show of dancing curtains, green and purple. I have some photographs, first time I did that so they are not that high quality, but I'll post them later! Congratulations! Love to see them. Do keep an eye out for more auroras in the coming hour at least, as the Bz continues to be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward Louckx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I uploaded my pictures from last night, location: Mikkeli, Finland. We were lucky the polar light was straight on top of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest adrianna Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Just in case you like good stories, March 17th is my birthday, with your report you made me stay looking to the sky, and just because of you I had the chance to see the lights (I missed almost all the show because I only could see them for a few minutes and the colors were between very light green and white but it was worth it), I had lost all my hope and faith until I received your report and started following very closely all the forecasts, the Ovation model gave me the strenght to keep watching. THANK YOU now I'm back in Mexico and I cannot stop thinking how I'm going to do to get there again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Happy belated birthday and welcome on the SpaceWeatherLive forums! Great to hear our reports were helpful to you and that you managed to see the aurora borealis. Very nice to hear your story, this is exactly why we make these reports! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kins Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I uploaded my pictures from last night, location: Mikkeli, Finland. We were lucky the polar light was straight on top of us! You've seen so much purple, lucky you! Super photos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sietse Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Our Scottish member Mark Brown has opened an album with aurora photo's taken in the Scottish Highlands, He deserved a mention in this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Mark Brown indeed has posted some very nice pictures, be sure to check them out. Do need to make a side note here and that his pictures were not taking Sunday but on two different chances last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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