Well good luck for anyone going out! Hoping these conditions remain for my night to as it's supposed to be completely clear tonight

Giving it until just before 9 GMT then having a go I think if this continues.

Yeah, I am going to pursue this one, too. Right after dark. 3 more hours for me till dark. Good luck everyone!!

It looks like the ground went into the flux rope. The Bz component remains on a steadily southerly trend.

Upd. Oh, no, no, she started scaring me with the change of direction.

Hopefully This Sustains -10+ BZ Soon when Clouds Will be completely out of the area

This arrived Earlier then Expected 3 hours prior.

Both components are favorable BT 8 BZ South -8

This may be the shock front of the CME.

Edited March 4Mar 4 by Peogauuia

Last year the esteemed Prof. @arjemma explained to us about Flux Rope. I think it would not be superfluous to remind about it in this case. Although we did not have the heroic arrival of the CME, in the form of a sudden increase in wind and receiving notifications from the SWL application, but still I think we are inside the Flux Rope.

Do we have any idea on how long this will last?

As in passing through the cme and not our current activity as I still got another 10 hours or so before dark

Seems like We are Pulling out of the Impact and it's only Sunset here now Unfortunate.

Edited March 4Mar 4 by Peogauuia

40 minutes ago, SearMr Cool said:

Do we have any idea on how long this will last?

As in passing through the cme and not our current activity as I still got another 10 hours or so before dark

in any case, if the CME was affecting us, it was only tangentially. I think that's it, EPAM is going down.

1 minute ago, Samrau said:

in any case, if the CME was affecting us, it was only tangentially. I think that's it, EPAM is going down.

Yeah definitely unfortunate but for anyone who was in dark clear skies would of been a nice show

2 minutes ago, SearMr Cool said:

Yeah definitely unfortunate but for anyone who was in dark clear skies would of been a nice show

Probably. I'm cloudy, and so are the people I know who could send me pictures. Let's wait for the rest of you to see if anyone's lucky

It was probably Just a light Graze that's about it Very unfortunate.

2 minutes ago, Peogauuia said:

It was probably Just a light Graze that's about it Very unfortunate.

Well got a currently active region still slowly growing and the regions that produced the impressive x2 and m5 flares (which will start to cross over in 5-6 days) so hopefully we get something from them

Yeah Hopefully 4001 Hasn't Lost its Magnetic Complexity and M-X flare Potential On the Farside Same with Old 3998 The M flare producer.

However There has been no farside Eruptions lately.

Edited March 4Mar 4 by Peogauuia

So far we'd still be waiting on a CME arrival. So far everything has been somewhat elevated ambient solar wind conditions.

Edited March 4Mar 4 by Jesterface23

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

So far we'd still be waiting on a CME arrival. So far everything has been somewhat elevated ambient solar wind conditions.

Please describe it in more detail. You obviously know more )

I'd like to believe that, but I don't think we should expect more. EPAM was showing a slight uptick, then a loss of data and then went into a downturn. I took that to mean that it was ending. The Bz index was south for almost 3 hours, with almost 2 hours of almost flat line. I have not noticed this in CH HSS or just from background wind. So I thought I entered somewhere on the edge of Flux Rope and exited. Correct me where I'm wrong, if not about everything

6 minutes ago, Samrau said:

Please describe it in more detail. You obviously know more )

Well, there has been no shock arrival at all. Looking at the past 3 days, the IMF is all over the place. The solar wind has some bad data here and there, but nothing really stands out.

1 hour ago, Peogauuia said:

Yeah Hopefully 4001 Hasn't Lost its Magnetic Complexity and M-X flare Potential On the Farside Same with Old 3998 The M flare producer.

However There has been no farside Eruptions lately.

Yeah that's been worrying me a bit to lol

9 minutes ago, SearMr Cool said:

Yeah that's been worrying me a bit to lol

Yeah So for now it's all up To Region 4012 To Grow and Get magnetically Complicated But at this rate I don't Expect anything Strong From it for now.

Southward BZ again Probably won't last long.

Though at this point, we won't be seeing any shock arrival from this CME. The current solar wind velocities are too high.

So, I just spent 4h imaging the N horizon and there was not even a smidgen of any aurora (42.2N geographic but about 52N geomagnetic, upstate NY). HPI fell from 67 to low 50s when it got dark here and then hovered in 40s with Bz fluctuating but mostly negative and as low as -6.8nT. The density was quite small, as pointed out above there was not really any shock arrival due to the high SW speed and the low speed of the CME. I spent some quality time under the starry sky and checked whether all constellations were in place (they were), made sure that all the planets behave (Jupiter was mischievous, chasing after Venus) and the Milky Way flows unobstructed into the universe of seas. All good and peaceful. A clear sky where I live is very rare, so this was quite enjoyable. Next time, I am bringing my 10" Dobson to help pass the time :)

Well disappointment is inevitable in this game, unfortunately. We have a couple more years punctuated by episodes of unbridled excitement in store for us, no doubt.

Well EPAM protons are on the rise not sure if it's related to this though

6 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

So far we'd still be waiting on a CME arrival. So far everything has been somewhat elevated ambient solar wind conditions.

My thoughts exactly. Not so sure we won't be seeing any of it though, at least speed has slowed down a bit now; but I'm guessing it'll be fairly weak if we do see some impact. And it could also miss entirely, of course.

1 hour ago, JessicaF said:

So, I just spent 4h imaging the N horizon and there was not even a smidgen of any aurora (42.2N geographic but about 52N geomagnetic, upstate NY). HPI fell from 67 to low 50s when it got dark here and then hovered in 40s with Bz fluctuating but mostly negative and as low as -6.8nT. The density was quite small, as pointed out above there was not really any shock arrival due to the high SW speed and the low speed of the CME. I spent some quality time under the starry sky and checked whether all constellations were in place (they were), made sure that all the planets behave (Jupiter was mischievous, chasing after Venus) and the Milky Way flows unobstructed into the universe of seas. All good and peaceful. A clear sky where I live is very rare, so this was quite enjoyable. Next time, I am bringing my 10" Dobson to help pass the time :)

Looks like around 21-22 was primarily when anything would have been happening, at least from the AE-index and magnetometers.

NOAA comments:

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters became enhanced starting around 03/1800 UTC due to

the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with a filament eruption off

the SE part of the disk on 01 Mar. Total field has risen towards 8 nT

with a sustained southward Bz component around -8 nT. Solar wind speeds

have bumped up slightly towards 500 km/s but are not affected otherwise.

There is rotation in the phi angle indicating a churning of the solar

wind as the CME moves through.

.Forecast...

Solar wind parameters will remain enhanced into 05 Mar until CME

influences wane and will trend back towards nominal levels 06-07 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet throughout the day with

unsettled conditions setting in during the synoptic period of 18-21 UTC.

Around 04/2130 UTC Kp increased rapidly due to the sustained southward

Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field with the arrival of the

aforementioned CME. A Kp=4 Warning is currently out until 05/1200 UTC

and a Kp=5 Warning through 05/0600 UTC. These warnings may be extended

if conditions persist.

.Forecast...

Current Active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming conditions are

expected on 05 Mar with a slight chance for G2 (Moderate) levels. As CME

influences wane the field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled

conditions through 07 Mar.

-Bri

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

3 hours ago, JessicaF said:

So, I just spent 4h imaging the N horizon and there was not even a smidgen of any aurora (42.2N geographic but about 52N geomagnetic, upstate NY). HPI fell from 67 to low 50s when it got dark here and then hovered in 40s with Bz fluctuating but mostly negative and as low as -6.8nT. The density was quite small, as pointed out above there was not really any shock arrival due to the high SW speed and the low speed of the CME. I spent some quality time under the starry sky and checked whether all constellations were in place (they were), made sure that all the planets behave (Jupiter was mischievous, chasing after Venus) and the Milky Way flows unobstructed into the universe of seas. All good and peaceful. A clear sky where I live is very rare, so this was quite enjoyable. Next time, I am bringing my 10" Dobson to help pass the time :)

👍 I usually did. If I didn't get the aurora borealis, I could at least take pictures of the starry sky. looking at the milky way is also quite nice, especially when you catch a meteorite fall.

Since the end of last year, I stopped chasing dubious predictions. time is precious.

and after that night, I became smarter, just like you. now we have learned even more and put our findings into practice. Next time we will predict with fewer mistakes.