Long duration peaked at X1.84 Solar Flare from region AR3848 on 9Oct24.

 

VEry likely to have a CME associated with it. Let's wait & see.

From what we've got so far, looks like there should be some kind of earth directed CME associated with this.

 

Edited October 9, 20241 yr by Parth

This thing is FAST

Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 5176 km/s was recorded.

Some crazy numbers right there. 🔥

Edited October 9, 20241 yr by Parth

Wow

 

Looking real good

Edited October 9, 20241 yr by Herbrax

2 minutes ago, Herbrax said:

 

LASCO C2

Looks like a fast one that’s for sure 

Yeah... WOW... those are beautiful.

5 minutes ago, Jay said:

Looks like a fast one that’s for sure 

Anyone can do the maths for the speed?

Well then, we have 3 CMEs incoming. The first two may arrive late on the 10th or early on the 11th. Timing on this 3rd CME is to be determined.

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Well then, we have 3 CMEs incoming. The first two may arrive late on the 10th or early on the 11th. Timing on this 3rd CME is to be determined.

Is more imagery needed to calculate the speed?

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Is more imagery needed to calculate the speed?

The more imagery, the better the forecast.

what are those speeds omg

Electrons really skyrocketed right away too:

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

Electrons really skyrocketed right away too:

what is your forecast 

CACTus CME seems to have only clipped the beginning of the CME, makes the video, and the data, kimda broken looking. (Makes me want to run CACTus myself!)

Seems that CME arrivals will become weekendactivities.

Does anyone know when Cactus will be updated?

 

Weather conditions will be good in northern germany this Weekend.

That’s a real stunner of a CME. Fast, dense, full halo, what more could you want?

We have a S1 storm now. 

Hopefully the CME will reach us this time but it does look good.

1 hour ago, Herbrax said:

Anyone can do the maths for the speed?

1 hour ago, tniickck said:

what is your forecast 

Estimating the speed for a CME that's coming right at us definitely isn't easy, and requires some fairly mathy maths to do precisely. I considered delving into it a while ago, but I doubt I'll really make much headway there compared to the various models published by space weather forecasting agencies.

However, I guess we could try to make an assumption about the angular width and assume it to be headed straight at us like a perfect cone, so that we can use some simpler maths; could lead to garbage results, but it's the best I can do off the top of my head.

A typical angular width would be ~45° from what I gather, which means that the halo we're seeing would in extremely simplified terms be 22.5° off center. Based on that we can take the observed speed in the yz-plane, and convert it to speed on the x-axis by dividing it by the tangent of the angle, which is what I tried to use for the estimates going off to the sides.

So the missing step is to squint hard at LASCO imagery and try to glean what the speed in 2D is. So far there's not much imagery in yet, but from C2 an initial estimate would be ~2.8 Solar diameters in an hour, which corresponds to ~1082 km/s in that direction; dividing that by tan(22.5°) gives a speed in our direction of ~2613 km/s.

To me that sounds too high, and needless to say there's obviously a ton of rough approximations going on here. Simply widening the CME to 60° would reduce the speed to ~1874 km/s. However, it's definitely interesting that the speed seems to be so high in the yz-plane to begin with, that means it's probably at least that fast in our direction too.

So yeah, do with it what you will; I might repeat it when more C3 imagery comes in to see if it checks out.

And just a small addition to that: using the formula I've referenced previously from one of Möstl's papers, that would yield a transit time of around 25-32 hours for those two estimates. I personally expect longer, since that's fairly extreme, but I guess it's not unheard of. We'll see what it becomes with more imagery, and if it's even close to being correct when (or if) it reaches us.

Edited October 9, 20241 yr by Philalethes
longer, not lower

Anyone know how long it generally takes the ccmc guys to put an CME on their scoreboard?

Oh time again already! 😎 Is it too early for arrival time predictions or when can that be expected?

I think I need to start to make sacrifices to the weather god already to make sure that the weather stays nice when this arrives 😂

From the current forecast I'm looking at a clear sky window from around 18UTC on Friday 11th and it will last all night so fingers crossed! 

If it really is that fast it may stack up with the slower glancing blow ones.Result = a fun weekend! 😎   

04:45 UTC - 10cm Radio Burst

Begin Time: 09/10/2024 01:36 UTC Maximum Time: 09/10/2024 02:03 UTC Duration: 174 minutes. Peak flux: 2700 sfu

Afaik peak sfu could indicate the strength of the CME. Thoughts? 

Edited October 9, 20241 yr by Pleroma

NOAA anticipating arrival late on the 10th/early on the 11th, subject to change. About the same time as the other CMEs were anticipated 
 

Good morning!

I will provide my sleep schedule, so you guys can calculate the time windows for possible major activity. How does it happen, that major activity on Sun starts exactly 30-60 minutes after I go to sleep? 

Jokes aside - this eruption looks very spectacular with major CME. LASCO C3 image is what dreams are made of - bright, fast, energetic, full halo CME followed by an instant response from solar protons, that starts to degrade the image quality. I didn't do very complex math, I just picked start and end time and then messaged how far the outer edge of CME has traveled and the result was:

01:12 - 03:12 = 2 hours = 10R⊙ = 966 km/s.

That is of course not totally correct because this calculation can be applied only when viewing CME from the side, but not from the front as in this case, but it gives the idea, that speeds are going to really be high - not lower than 1000 km/s Give a look to @Philalethes - much better description of situation and calculations made.  

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

Estimating the speed for a CME that's coming right at us definitely isn't easy, and requires some fairly mathy maths to do precisely. I considered delving into it a while ago, but I doubt I'll really make much headway there compared to the various models published by space weather forecasting agencies.

 

Snowing (protons) on lasco after the CME

Edited October 9, 20241 yr by Jay