Marcel de Bont Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity 17 February 2013 Synopsis M1 event We were just watching images from SDO and noticed that AR1675 developed a very interesting magnetic structure with a delta spot in the central penumbral area. It looked very compact and was enough for this M-flare. Just as we were updating our Facebook and Twitter pages, AR1675 started to erupt very impulsively with very short C flares. First C2, then C5 and to top it all - one more peak reaching M1.96. Picture of AR1675's magnetic structure as attachment. What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? We have to wait for new SDO images to see what is left of the delta structure after this flare. We will post another update later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 SpaceWeatherLive Report Analysis of the Solar Activity 17 February 2013 Synopsis past 24h What an interesting day after a long period of almost complete silence on the Sun. The day began with a small C-class flare from region 1675 and was the precursor of more spectacle. This region showed a very strong delta structure which was very compact with an other spot of opposite polarity which was about to become unstable. It was until 15h30 UTC that the region become unstable and produced it's first of a series impulsive C-class flares, the first was an impulsive C2 flare which caused a chain reaction with an other C5 flare and then exploded on 15h50 UTC in a M1.9 impulsive flare. This event also caused a tenflare but as far as we have LASSCO and STEREO data there was no CME visible. The sunspot stabilized a bit returning to background levels but until now it still produces some minor C-class flaring. When we look at the magnetic structure before the flare and now, there is a difference. So, is this region still capable of producing a big flare? It could but the chances dropped a bit... the magnetic layout has changed a bit, the strongest delta structure (spot with an opposite polarity in the same penumbral area) is still there but we already can draw a line between the other spot of opposite polarity; the other delta structure is also there but the distance with the other spot has got a bit bugger. If the magnetic delta structure in the polarity mix retains, the chance remains. We do hope the sunspot region develops further and gives us some more activity. In attachment we added a magnetic layout of the region (only visible for members). Also, watch the video of the eruption on our YouTube channel: What can we expect in the upcoming 24h? There remans a chance for an impulsive M-class flare as long as the delta structure remains intact or develops further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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