Looks like post flare arcades.  Cool. 

1 minute ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Looks like post flare arcades.  Cool. 

Good morning to you and hagrid from me and Merlin. 🐈 great observation!!

About a thirty degree “ window”. Not a perfect guarantee but best chance anyway 

Is this the delta?

Good morning to Merlin too Min! 

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

oh what would that mean for the CME? Do other cmes not move as much? Excuse me if that’s a stupid question, I just woke up

It looked to be moving away in all directions so I expect a full halo from this. Obviously we await LASCO for confirmation though. Other CMEs can move as much as this too, but this one just happened to look nice in my opinion.

Off to bed for me, it’s almost 4:30am 😬. Hopefully I wake up to nice LASCO data.

6 minutes ago, helios said:

Is this the delta?

I think there are two of them at least.  The one you nailed and the finger poking at the positive also. 

10 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

About a thirty degree “ window”. Not a perfect guarantee but best chance anyway 

Is this what @Philalethes once explained?

9 minutes ago, helios said:

Is this the delta?

Yes and the big red blob to the left is one too

17 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

oh what would that mean for the CME? Do other cmes not move as much? Excuse me if that’s a stupid question, I just woke up

Absolutely YES! For example, On November 4, 2003, an X40 (and likely even stronger) solar flare occurred just around the southwest limb from AR 0486. The CME that resulted from the flare was traveling at speeds exceeding 2700 km/s which is incredibly fast compared to this expected one, which I doubt would have velocities higher than some 1500 km/s, although these are just speculations at the moment as the data is so, so preliminary, actually the flare has not even ended.  

3 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

Absolutely YES! For example, On November 4, 2003, an X40 (and likely even stronger) solar flare occurred just around the southwest limb from AR 0486. The CME that resulted from the flare was traveling at speeds exceeding 2700 km/s which is incredibly fast compared to this expected one, which I doubt would have velocities higher than some 1500 km/s, although these are just speculations at the moment as the data is so, so preliminary, actually the flare has not even ended.  

I really missed your input on here   thank you! So the CME looked rather fast?  

This region is still growing and is a good candidate now.  The closest red negative is almost brown the strength is so high.  More X classes please…..

Jester will have his predictive crystal ball bright all week now. 🤣🤣🤣

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I really missed your input on here   thank you! So the CME looked rather fast?  

Glad to hear it!  Thank you! It was just an educated guess, rather than a real prediction. I would like to have LASCO data so that a calculation could be made about CME speed based on the leading edge of the CME on top of the background sky as a reference (also referred to as plane-of-sky speed). Good material if you want to read a bit more about it: https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/RoR_WWW/SWREDI/2018/CMEAnalysisStereoCAT_MLeilaMays_201706.pdf  (starting from page 3).

Very nice X-flare. And in a good position too. Why not always like this.

Hopefully the LASCO pictures will come as soon as possible.

I wrote this right before I went to bed and forgot to hit "Submit Reply". That was 6 hours ago.

"I feel like the chance for an X flare is higher than 5%." 😄

Edited August 14, 20241 yr by cgrant26

Nice to see several people back we haven’t seen in some time.  Cool….

Is there any update on whether the eruption has been eruptive?

You can see a CME from the M4.4 limb flare that popped off a few hours prior on C2/C3 now. Still nothing from our X1.1

Edited August 14, 20241 yr by cgrant26

3784 may look and be like 5629 that showed a surprise with an X28.5 when it departed from the western limb. 3784 spewed an X1.11 flare just recently. It spewed C flares, then an M1.2 flare, a M4.2 flare, and then the X1.11 flare. It started its eruptions on 2024/08/12.

Edited August 14, 20241 yr by faster328

I think there starts to show faint CME on the STEREO coronograph. Not sure if this is related to the X1.1 event, but looks like given the current position of spacecraft.

Here is the dimming on solar demon

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings_details.php?science=0&dimming_id=10887&delay=80&prefix=pBDI_&small=1&aid=0&graph=1

4 minutes ago, Cokelley said:

Aquí está el oscurecimiento del demonio solar.

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings_details.php?science=0&dimming_id=10887&delay=80&prefix=pBDI_&small=1&aid=0&graph=1

Well, it seems that it was something decent.

6 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

I think there starts to show faint CME on the STEREO coronograph. Not sure if this is related to the X1.1 event, but looks like given the current position of spacecraft.

About to create a topic for that.

9 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

I think there starts to show faint CME on the STEREO coronograph. Not sure if this is related to the X1.1 event, but looks like given the current position of spacecraft.

Is the big CME from the western limb? And the streamers? I’m very bad with lasco and stereo-a cor.

10 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

I think there starts to show faint CME on the STEREO coronograph. Not sure if this is related to the X1.1 event, but looks like given the current position of spacecraft.

I’m sorry but that doesn’t look faint it does look very bright. Isn’t that from the x1?

13 minutes ago, Cokelley said:

Here is the dimming on solar demon

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings_details.php?science=0&dimming_id=10887&delay=80&prefix=pBDI_&small=1&aid=0&graph=1

the dimming doesnt actually look too crazy

 

Looks very much like an eruption to me, but can't really see signs of it in the few coronagrams we have so far. In the very latest C2 image there seems to be something emerging, but that seems a bit late; if it that were a component traveling perpendicular to us it'd have a speed of just 100 km/s, heh. I guess a possibility is a narrow eruption that's traveling straight toward us.