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2 minutes ago, Prizma1227 said:

doesn't look eruptive so far unfortunately.

alan is right, its not peaking yet. where are you looking for eruptiveness? Suvi is behind 20-30 mins.

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  • Marcel de Bont
    Marcel de Bont

    Certainly a very interesting group with potential. Stating that it can produce an X10 solar flare is a bit of a bold statement as I doubt that but it does have X-flare potential. Let's keep an eye on

  • Philalethes
    Philalethes

    X10+ flares are extremely rare, so unless the region were to look like a giant big mess (like e.g. 3664) I'd say it's almost always reasonable to doubt that it could produce such a flare. It looks pro

  • Philalethes
    Philalethes

    Seems like it's been oscillating back and forth in terms of color. Hard to say if it's due to different lines of sight and/or complexifying/simplifying, but it is a bit lighter in color currently; see

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Hace 4 minutos, Alan Yohualli dijo:

No lo diría hasta ver hasta dónde llega la llamada.

¡¡¡X1.0!!!!

 

Hace 2 minutos, MinYoongi dijo:

Alan tiene razón, todavía no ha alcanzado su pico máximo. ¿Dónde buscas que haya actividad eruptiva? Suvi está entre 20 y 30 minutos detrás.

It is now at X1.0 and rising

Edited by Alan Yohualli

8 minutes ago, Prizma1227 said:

doesn't look eruptive so far unfortunately.

In sdo images it looks somewhat eruptive, but that is based off a single frame so we should wait for more images to be sure.

Edited by Aten

1 minute ago, Aten said:

In sdo images it looks somewhat eruptive

i mean it has barely peaked, do eruptions occur after or before/during peak? i think we need to be a few frames more patient

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

alan is right, its not peaking yet. where are you looking for eruptiveness? Suvi is behind 20-30 mins.

yeah, was just what i saw at the time, thus why i said "so far" 

apologies for the incorrect conjecture :)

 

Edit:

looking at 131Ang it seems like there is a bit of ejection. will have to wait and see!

Edited by Prizma1227
didnt want to double post

Just now, MeteoLatvia said:

Here we go! I can see some movement in SUVI 131, but definitely agree with @MinYoongi - more frames are needed to see the extent of the event.

Welcome back, friend! Glad to see you back around :) 

15 minutes ago, Prizma1227 said:

dead sexy.

Well, I planned on sleeping after making that video but now I might need to stay up a couple hours to make one for this flare haha. It's already 1am here damnit 😂

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Just now, Parabolic said:

Well, I planned on sleeping after making that video but now I might need to stay up a couple hours to make one for this flare haha. It's already 1am here damnit 😂

the sun doesnt sleep :P get some rest mate, its not going anywhere!

1 minute ago, Prizma1227 said:

the sun doesnt sleep :P get some rest mate, its not going anywhere!

Good advice that I should probably follow haha

1 minute ago, Parabolic said:

Good advice that I should probably follow haha

i sense that you are planning on not sleeping then :P

look forward to your video either way ❤️ 

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4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Welcome back, friend! Glad to see you back around :) 

Thank you! :) Actually, it's really nice feeling to be back here, in such a great community. :) 

I added a GIF with AIA 131 imagery. I am not an expert for sure, but I would say we have a chance for CME because I see quite a lot of motion, but still an early guess.

ezgif-7-380123d967.gif.83c75bdd469c1ca384d5b998e3f194d0.gif

Here we go! Guys a quick question as I'm joining the party. When did this region get the delta and is it looking good as a whole???

This one looks really good. I can see quite a bit of movement on SUVI 284.

spacer.png

Edited by Calder
Added gif

This is the one, and the two before will help, I think. It depends on the speed. So I will  prepare my camera and myself to be standby Thursday/Friday.

9 minutes ago, helios said:

It looks like it has coronal dimming, but only after 06:20, so the eruption just started
dim.jpg.375e207888702503fc469253b4f3889b.jpg

 

8 minutes ago, Calder said:

This one looks really good. I can see quite a bit of movement on SUVI 284

Good morning Helios and thank you for the preliminary dimming ! It’s always behind by approximately 15mins but sometimes more, and the imagery itself is behind 15-20 so it always takes a little bit. 
 

@Calder oh what would that mean for the CME? Do other cmes not move as much? Excuse me if that’s a stupid question, I just woke up :D

1 minute ago, Ferdie said:

This is the one, and the two before will help, I think. It depends on the speed. So I will  prepare my camera and myself to be standby Thursday/Friday.

Which 2 before?

Of course, coronography will tell us the final story, but as @helios - there definitely is coronal dimming. By now it doesn't look like something massive, but also not that small either. At least we finally have some truly Earth-directed action, not limb disappointment.

ezgif-7-d0674e076d.gif.2413d427978f1e2f46043cf018178e1d.gif

Fantastic to see this has now become active in terms of flaring. I did wonder if it was going to pass us by before really kicking off. I am right in saying it's current position is bang on should any CMEs be launched?

Just now, BlueRoom said:

Fantastic to see this has now become active in terms of flaring. I did wonder if it was going to pass us by before really kicking off. I am right in saying it's current position is bang on should any CMEs be launched?

Currently, it's probably near the best position (Solar disc center) we could hope for any Earth-directed CMEs. In my experience - strong, eruptive flares at these positions are quite rare, it has also been confirmed by analyzing historical data: https://x.com/eelcodoornbos/status/1756710312219119618/photo/1

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