what wonders me about this region is that it never seems to change after a flare. i may be not seing stuff shifting, but as far as I can tell, even an X-Class never reduces its complexity. It was the same for the last rotation.

Å195

59 minutes ago, Juress said:

Å195

Very pretty video, thank you   

@Philalethes Could you take a look and let us know if the region is caged?

This is the 4th X class solar flare from this region! I can see pretty promising complexity, it is beginning to face Earth and we have a new moon on the 5th. Pretty exciting times.

5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

@Philalethes Could you take a look and let us know if the region is caged?

I highly doubt that

3 minutes ago, mozy said:

I highly doubt that

May i ask why? I dont know how to spot it really. I thought about caging with the latest flares, but they were really impulsive so thats most likely the reason there were no CME.

Just now, MinYoongi said:

May i ask why? I dont know how to spot it really. I thought about caging with the latest flares, but they were really impulsive so thats most likely the reason there were no CME.

Region has been decaying all the way on farside and It's only really the delta flaring now with the latest 2 X-flares, the region as a whole was more involved with the previous flares. Seems unlikely that a weakening sunspot that has constantly been shooting out CME's will randomly get caged since from what I have learned those situations are more associated with big/strong regions that stay quiet for a certain period of time, I'm no expert but that's from my observation.

52 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Very pretty video, thank you   

@Philalethes Could you take a look and let us know if the region is caged?

The unsigned flux seems to have dropped a bit since yesterday, so based on that alone there would tend to be less caging, although the flux is relatively high:

But as discussed previously it's probably also a matter of how the flux is organized too; looking at the last 48 hours from SDO in 171 Å it doesn't seem to have the same level of organization as the large region we were looking at when we first started discussing caging, where you essentially had a large bunch of coronal loops all together over the region from positive to negative.

It does however seem more organized now than during its previous rotation, where it also had quite high flux even as it launched CMEs:

In this case there were several notable CMEs from it for a couple of days even after it crossed the upper bound, and even some more large ones after it had rotated over the limb when the flux presumably was still around that level. So while the flux is one indication of confinement, it certainly doesn't tell the whole picture.

Edited June 1, 20241 yr by Philalethes
wrong wavelength

Thank you @mozy and @Philalethes for the great explanations. i sadly ran out of reactions but still wanted to let you two know. 🙂 

 

Btw, Solen / jan Alvestad said this about this region :  

Quote

still has a significant magnetic delta configuration with strong to very strong magnetic shear.

Not to sound mean but he sometimes overexaggerated a lot and lately is not the good source i thought he was for years, so maybe someone ( @Parabolic ?  ) could tell me about the current shear situation?

Obviously there is shear, due to the 2 X flares. That much i know.  

17 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

current shear situation

The situation doesn't seem very different from the last vector magnetogram that was posted here; there's definitely still a solid delta there, as you can probably see yourself, and that one does have notable shear, but there doesn't seem to be that much shear beyond that. I wouldn't really say that anything Jan says there is wrong, but maybe the "very strong" part is a bit exaggerated.

The delta does seem to be shrinking/breaking apart currently, further flares will probably only accelerate the decay.

8 minutes ago, mozy said:

The delta does seem to be shrinking/breaking apart currently, further flares will probably only accelerate the decay.

Where exactly? To me it looked like its growing 😮 ! I gotta train my eye more. Is it "drifting apart"  or just decaying?

5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Where exactly? To me it looked like its growing 😮 ! I gotta train my eye more. Is it "drifting apart"  or just decaying?

First pic few hours ago, second pic now, spreading & losing some darker coloration

7 minutes ago, mozy said:

First pic few hours ago, second pic now, spreading & losing some darker coloration

I def. see what you mean. It looked a bit different in HD / Zoomed in to me. did not notice the shrinkage.

2 hours ago, mozy said:

First pic few hours ago, second pic now, spreading & losing some darker coloration

https://gyazo.com/e4944d4b3c95c60567682ea84e234223

1 hour evolution. I now realy see what you meant. top part slightly grew i think. do you think the delta is falling apart?

10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

https://gyazo.com/e4944d4b3c95c60567682ea84e234223

1 hour evolution. I now realy see what you meant. top part slightly grew i think. do you think the delta is falling apart?

Wouldn't call it falling apart just yet, but it sure is decaying some.

@mozy @Philalethes I have not payed much attention to the trailing part of the region. is it somehow changing/growing to make up for the delta stuff in the leading part? Is there any noteworthy changes in the region?

1 minute ago, mozy said:

Wouldn't call it falling apart just yet, but it sure is decaying some.

hmm okay. could it re-grow? or what do you think will its evolution be?

3rd time's the charm?... maybe?

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

3rd time's the charm?... maybe?

We stay tuned.. i thought the delta is getting weaker. weird

Where did you see the current flare coming from this region so soon? I couldn't see it in any image

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

We stay tuned.. i thought the delta is getting weaker. weird

Well that’s probably going to finish it

1 minute ago, Ester89 said:

Where did you see the current flare coming from this region so soon? I couldn't see it in any image

same.. i guess jester is going of the most probable region for this flare being this one 

3rd X flare?!

2 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

Where did you see the current flare coming from this region so soon? I couldn't see it in any image

Here’s for 3!

X1.03 peak