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AR 3697


Misaka

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Posted (edited)

Glad ya started it! Except you probably meant 3664. Obviously me and @MinYoongi know whatya probably meant to text.  Our returning AR that dealt us the storm we wish would return again at least once this cycle!! 

Edited by hamateur 1953
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33 minutes ago, Misaka said:

Formerly AR 3446.

Let's see what the region has to offer us this time.

Thank you for opening this thread :)  what do you personally think upon first look? 

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Posted (edited)

Isn't it weird it only produced the X flare and then went silent? I can only see minor C pops and these are probably from all around not just this region. Nothing above M for 24+ hours so in my opinion an extremely small fraction of what we used to know remains (when it comes to complexity). After all it just produced a single CME while on the back side so unless we have new spots in there emerging  there's not much hope in my opinion. 

Edited by Sotiris Konstantis
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22 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Isn't it weird it only produced the X flare and then went silent? I can only see minor C pops and these are probably from all around not just this region. Nothing above M for 24+ hours so in my opinion an extremely small fraction of what we used to know remains (when it comes to complexity). After all it just produced a single CME while on the back side so unless we have new spots in there emerging  there's not much hope in my opinion. 

We are not seeing the whole group yet. There still seems to be some more spots behind the limb. I think you are being a bit pessimistic.

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39 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Isn't it weird it only produced the X flare and then went silent? I can only see minor C pops and these are probably from all around not just this region. Nothing above M for 24+ hours so in my opinion an extremely small fraction of what we used to know remains (when it comes to complexity). After all it just produced a single CME while on the back side so unless we have new spots in there emerging  there's not much hope in my opinion. 

There are more sunspots sticking out, perhaps we don't have enough info

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21 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

We are not seeing the whole group yet. There still seems to be some more spots behind the limb. I think you are being a bit pessimistic.

Let's wait and see! Fingers crossed I'm wrong. If that's the case and judging from the CME yesterday the flare was probably much larger than X2.8. 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Let's wait and see! Fingers crossed I'm wrong. If that's the case and judging from the CME yesterday the flare was probably much larger than X2.8. 

Yep. Probably much larger.  I lost count of the deltas last time. It grew so fast and was so violent that we were yawning “ oh only an M6 “. Haha. 
probably at least a few scraps left of it.. And the C flares only indicate to me anyway that it is at least not a mass of plage coming our way.  If it would be so kind as to bust up that filament mass.  We would appreciate this also.  

Edited by hamateur 1953
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15 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Yep. Probably much larger.  I lost count of the deltas last time. It grew so fast and was so violent that we were yawning “ oh only an M6 “. Haha. 
probably at least a few scraps left of it.. And the C flares only indicate to me anyway that it is at least not a mass of plage coming our way.  If it would be so kind as to bust up that filament mass.  We would appreciate this also.  

May i ask where i can see the "Filament mass" ? Im pretty bad at noticing filaments on center disc, let alone the limbs.. i thought its normal coronal loops. 🙈

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11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

May i ask where i can see the "Filament mass" ? Im pretty bad at noticing filaments on center disc, let alone the limbs.. i thought its normal coronal loops. 🙈

Sure. Just ahead of 3697 perhaps use a longer wavelength than 131. This thing is huge   and could be seen in profile because it was actually obstructing our view at the time 

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2 hours ago, 3gMike said:

We are not seeing the whole group yet. There still seems to be some more spots behind the limb. I think you are being a bit pessimistic.

Here is my first post.
"The optimists invented the airplane, the pessimists the parachute." 
I'm just kidding. 😄
We will have to wait and see.
Greetings from Buenos Aires - Argentina
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23 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

This should be about 80% of the region at minimum. There might not be much more to come over the limb.

image.jpeg.322c2b814dfd580aacedf82b41d0b35d.jpeg

so you think we already see most of it?

but the blurred spot(s) look quite big? or is it exaggerated due to warp/limb ?

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

so you think we already see most of it?

but the blurred spot(s) look quite big? or is it exaggerated due to warp/limb ?

There could be another few spots or spot cluster, but that seems to be mostly it.

There looks to be one umbra that is on the limb, but that spot is connected a a cluster of spots that are still a bit blurred. 

Edited by Jesterface23
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I have seen impressive, complex regions travel the entire disk and have little in the way of production. 3664 was very active and now that it is back, the first thing it does is pop off another x flare. The current trend tends to continue and my money is on 3697 giving us some more fireworks. 

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7 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Glad ya started it! Except you probably meant 3664. Obviously me and @MinYoongi know whatya probably meant to text.  Our returning AR that dealt us the storm we wish would return again at least once this cycle!! 

Yes, that's exactly what I meant. Thanks for the correction 😄

7 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you for opening this thread :)  what do you personally think upon first look? 

The region doesn't look as strong and big as it once was. But that was to be expected since we had already seen a drop in activity on STIX recently. 

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Excited to see what it has in check for us this time! Mostly C-Flares up until this point (Except the greetings it left us hehe). Could it be that the limb makes the flares appear weaker as they are?

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15 minutes ago, Adohran said:

Excited to see what it has in check for us this time! Mostly C-Flares up until this point (Except the greetings it left us hehe). Could it be that the limb makes the flares appear weaker as they are?

Nah, It's just crackling with small C-class flares currently, while on the farside it only produced a big flare once every few days or so, that trend might continue.

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Just now, mozy said:

Nah, It's just crackling with small C-class flares currently, while on the farside it only produced a big flare once every few days or so, that trend might continue.

Wasn't there an X12?

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1 minute ago, TomyyB said:

Wasn't there an X12?

Yes, exactly why I said that it produced a big flare every few days or so while being on the farside, estimated X12 on the 20th and then X1 few days ago and then the X2.9 yesterday😜

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13 minutes ago, Adohran said:

Excited to see what it has in check for us this time! Mostly C-Flares up until this point (Except the greetings it left us hehe). Could it be that the limb makes the flares appear weaker as they are?

Well don't really know and don't really care about the absolute X-ray flux. Not into radios, more of an aurora guy myself. 😅 The CME from yesterday was wild, ENLIL expecting over 60p/cm^3 and decent speed at Earth distance. This single CME would have produced a short G4 easily, be earth directed. There's clearly more to come from this region.

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Posted (edited)

Watching the coronal loops in 131aia I'd say it's going to produce another flare and CME then become quiet until it reaches the west limb again.

Edited by Parabolic
Jokes, it still has lots of juice left
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3 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

Watching the coronal loops in 131aia I'd say it's going to produce another flare and CME then become quiet until it reaches the west limb again.

How do you predict that? I dont know the stuff so well with coronal loops etc. I'd like an explanation so i can understand! :D  Sounds interesting.

Oh i just saw your edit. How do you see it has "juice left" ??

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