It looks like proton energy was high enough to cause a slight increase in neutrons measured by the two neutron monitors at the south pole.

It's hard to be 100% sure because the measured neutron count often spikes for no reason. I think the largest spikes on the chart is just noise, but there is definitely a small bump right after the time of the flare at both neutron monitors.

It does indeed match the time of the 500 MeV increase (02 to 04 UTC). Quite possible that this is related to the energetic protons.
But that alone would not be sufficient to meet the formal GLE criteria:
"A GLE event is registered when there are near-time coincident and statistically significant enhancements of the count rates of at least two differently located neutron monitors including at least one neutron monitor near sea level and a corresponding enhancement in the proton flux measured by a space-borne instrument(s)."

But it could qualify as a sub-GLE:
"A sub-GLE event is registered when there are near-time coincident and statistically significant enhancements of the count rates of at least two differently located high-elevation neutron monitors and a corresponding enhancement in the proton flux measured by a space-borne instrument(s), but no statistically significant enhancement in the count rates of neutron monitors near sea level."

ENLIL model is up

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

2 hours ago, Aten said:

It looks like proton energy was high enough to cause a slight increase in neutrons measured by the two neutron monitors at the south pole.

It's hard to be 100% sure because the measured neutron count often spikes for no reason. I think the largest spikes on the chart is just noise, but there is definitely a small bump right after the time of the flare at both neutron monitors.

Very interesting @Aten.  Thanks ,  Mike outta likes ( what else is new? )  🤣

Edited June 8, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Stupid iphone needs a reeducation camp

7 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

ENLIL model is up

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Looks very dense but not a direct hit It's a shame too since the associated flare was quite strong.

The GLE at what probably is Mcmurdo base is under 24/ 7 darkness and pointed away presently as we approach aphelion too. This fact just hit me.  Thanks for weighing in Aten. Mike. 

Edited June 8, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Too many hrs of trying to concentrate with an aging mind. Haha

Is there a chance for a direct hit. The bulk isn't too far off from earth in those projections. Is it within the realm of possibility/statistical range of the model? 

18 minutes ago, Yani said:

Is there a chance for a direct hit. The bulk isn't too far off from earth in those projections. Is it within the realm of possibility/statistical range of the model? 

We'll receive a glancing blow at most unfortunately

 

2 hours ago, Parabolic said:

We'll receive a glancing blow at most unfortunately

It looks like they are predicting a G2. Do we know what caused the G2 levels yesterday yet? Apparently the models can miss things if we still don't know what happened yesterday but it will be interesting to see what happens around the 10th !

38 minutes ago, Cokelley said:

It looks like they are predicting a G2. Do we know what caused the G2 levels yesterday yet? Apparently the models can miss things if we still don't know what happened yesterday but it will be interesting to see what happens around the 10th !

Yesterday was from a CME and CH arrival at the same time. The CME source is unclear, but one possible source is that there was a very faint CME that launched from region 3697 several days prior to the arrival.

Another flare. Couldn't do all this while it was facing us could it?

33 minutes ago, Sagatha said:

Another flare. Couldn't do all this while it was facing us could it?

Why be generous to us if it can royally flip us off?

 

It also seems to double peak again

Edited June 9, 20241 yr by JaiGalaar

1 hour ago, JaiGalaar said:

Why be generous to us if it can royally flip us off?

 

It also seems to double peak again

 

1 hour ago, JaiGalaar said:

Why be generous to us if it can royally flip us off?

 

It also seems to double peak again

I think one of them was from the eastern regions.

Yeah the second M-class one

This region on its way in needs to be nice and keep up the output I reckon 

Looks like 3697 is done. Flux went down to C1 and hasn't went above C2 for a while.

M-flare from this region. Maybe the last one that is visible to us.

right, whos taking bets on one last X class when its behind the limb. would be our luck

10 hours ago, Misaka said:

M-flare from this region. Maybe the last one that is visible to us.

It had another one in its pocket! M3.3!

49 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

It had another one in its pocket! M3.3!

He's leaving us again. Maybe to surprise us all when he gets back?😏

9 minutes ago, Х-ray said:

He's leaving us again. Maybe to surprise us all when he gets back?😏

Only to be quiet the whole time it's facing us and becoming active once it hits the limb again

10 minutes ago, Sagatha said:

Only to be quiet the whole time it's facing us and becoming active once it hits the limb again

Perhaps this is his distinguishing feature: to flare up only by touching the limb?😊

Another flare for this region, thought it was at its peak but seems to be creeping up again.

It keeps rubbing salt in the wounds 

It's looking to be lengthy 

 

(Still new to this so apologies if incorrect)

Edited June 10, 20241 yr by Sagatha
Dw my sadness is mostly theatrical

M5 now. Its looks like its still not over for the region