Big Flare lighting up now, getting steadily shorter intervals.

9 hours, 8 hours, now 6 hour intervals.  Somethings brewing. 

Edit: Was just a small M1 flare, but im going with an uneducated gut feeling here and saying wait an hour. 

Edited June 2, 20241 yr by Balarius

This region is in roughly the same area where it started getting really active on it's first Earth-side rotation so it would be really interesting to see it follow that same pattern. Interesting to note that as 3664 became active at that time, 3663 basically went quiet. Almost like it was a hand-off.

1 hour ago, Balarius said:

Somethings brewing. 

Something is definitely brewing, the complexity seems to be consolidating with these small flares. (But i'm not educated enough to say it for sure)

Alright, a little X8 or X9 with a CME earth-directed ? Pretty please ? 

6 hours ago, kb117 said:

Please, tell me how this would be a good thing? Y'all want another Carrington event?

Absolutely 👍 

1 minute ago, silverstingray said:

Absolutely 👍 

May I add unequivocally and the lower the BZ the better!!  

6 hours ago, kb117 said:

Please, tell me how this would be a good thing? Y'all want another Carrington event?

The auroral displays would be absolutely stunning, and we'd learn so much more about the interaction of extreme space weather with Earth, including some actual empirical evidence for how it affects the current state of human technology in the most geomagnetically affected areas.

If you're scared I'd recommend having a look at this thread and taking any further questions about it there.

M2 Flare from this region.

Flaring up again

M1.98 (M2) Solar flare

It might be just intuition, but I think the r3697 is starting to resemble r3664, or atleast it does on approximate size and sunspot structure on 06/05/24.

On 5/31/2024 at 4:25 PM, Loganas said:

Hey everyone, I've just noticed that the flaring of this region is in a sort of "suspension bridge pattern"

It makes a powerful flare, dies down, slowly rises and then another powerful flare (~X1) with equal spacing between each event. I don't know much on the physics side, so hopefully there's someone who can (sorta?) explain this, and why its happening in regular intervals of 2 days ~8 hours.

If this is correct then there should be another X flare, or at least around X on 03/06/2024 05utc-10utc

How is this model holding up? Can it be predicted out to the time it reaches the western edge of the solar disc?

46 minutes ago, TheChef said:

How is this model holding up? Can it be predicted out to the time it reaches the western edge of the solar disc?

Yes, this is the same one.

1 hour ago, TheChef said:

How is this model holding up? Can it be predicted out to the time it reaches the western edge of the solar disc?

Nothing on the sun is wholly predictable… there is no way to model an active region and its flares more than a few minutes or hours at a time - that this region was following a pattern or timing sequence was completely random and happenstance 🤷‍♂️

Edited June 2, 20241 yr by Justanerd
Logic

Should patterns continue - should see flaring again within an hour

13 hours ago, kb117 said:

Please, tell me how this would be a good thing? Y'all want another Carrington event?

Imagine the aura's though

Just make sure to turn all your electrics off prior

I think we should be very careful with trying to find patterns like this and then believing it when it's 99% a coincidence. It's in the nature of us humans to find patterns to get understanding on things that happens. 

I must say I really got a kick out of the suspension bridge construction using the ebb and flow over a few days of X radiation graphically  posted awhile ago though.  Looked really cool!   Then  the sun saw it and just HAD to alter a really nice pattern! 

Edited June 2, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953

37 minutes ago, arjemma said:

I think we should be very careful with trying to find patterns like this and then believing it when it's 99% a coincidence. It's in the nature of us humans to find patterns to get understanding on things that happens. 

Well said!

22 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I must say I really got a kick out of the suspension bridge construction using the ebb and flow over a few days of X radiation graphically  posted awhile ago though.  Looked really cool!   Then  the sun saw it and just HAD to alter a really nice pattern! 

Haha yeah. Of course it had to change as soon as I mentioned it 

@mozy what do you think about the region as it is currently?

7 hours ago, Loganas said:

Haha yeah. Of course it had to change as soon as I mentioned it 

Naturally. 🤪 And I realize that the processes are random, nevertheless I'd like to see what the pattern looked like if it had continued for a few more days. 

7 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

@mozy what do you think about the region as it is currently?

Boring, I don't expect any further major flaring, It's just collapsing overall

Dissing the active regions has been effective in the past, although I agree with @mozy here. It is spitting C class but seems dormant otherwise. 

The opposite of every prediction I make is a the norm so lemme try...

 

Yep.  The spot seems to be dying out, I wouldnt expect anymore X-Flares from this has-been.

Edit:  Dude...

It was only an M1 but that timing was kinda rude. 

Edited June 3, 20241 yr by Balarius

17 minutes ago, Balarius said:

The opposite of every prediction I make is a the norm so lemme try...

 

Yep.  The spot seems to be dying out, I wouldnt expect anymore X-Flares from this has-been.

Edit:  Dude...

It was only an M1 but that timing was kinda rude. 

You were typing that while the X-ray flux was going up 😛

13 minutes ago, mozy said:

You were typing that while the X-ray flux was going up 😛

Well, lemme try again.

I bet you wont do it again 3697!

I mean...