Cactus CME show it as only 1250 so everyone clam down it is not Carrigton class by any means.

5 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

We dodged a BB.

6 hours ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said:

As a total newbie to all this kind of thing, can someone explain to me why this carrington level sunspot didn't seemed to worry anyone around ? (i'm not making this up, it's litteraly written in space weather.com) which kind of sunspot can really be dangerous and how likely it is to appear ? 

I didn't read whatever article that was but I had a quick peak at the website. From the amount of ads on their page and selling eclipse pendants it looks like the type of website that posts sensational stories to drive views. You can find much more reliable science backed sources.

10 hours ago, arjemma said:

Sadly with social media and fearmongering accounts so many people nowadays thinks that X-eruptions are very dangerous and could cause an apocalypse.

It's too harsh a statement on your part. Like other people who come to this site, I look at the overall picture of everything that is happening, and when I see the crimson red inscriptions X*number* on the entire screen of my laptop, in any case it will make me more wary. Although, as has been written many times on this forum, these solar flares will have a small impact on the earth. And for the media, this is a good reason to increase the viewing of the article and cause panic among other readers. Not all people have the interest or time to read tons of messages on this forum and how it will affect the earth when automatically the color of the message and large numbers signal the brain about danger. Although for some it makes them want to dig deeper and learn more about outbreaks (like me). That’s why you shouldn’t call people “stupid,” at least those who come here and once again ask the question about the outbreak and whether it can Boom the earth.

9 hours ago, Philalethes said:

We have seen even in recent times that were probably faster, including one earlier this cycle (that I remember @arjemma called a "beautiful big eruption", I even dug up the thread where it was initially discussed here), and the 1972 CME still stands as the fastest we know of (at a transit time of ~14.6 hours, an average transit speed of almost 3000 km/s).

Nice find, that eruption was a big beautiful eruption indeed haha 🤩 

I'm still in awe when I look at it. Insane speed and would have been very interesting to know how it would have affected earth if it was on our side of the sun. I remember that we had sunny weather all week during that and that I was so disappointed that it was on the far side cause the aurora could have been amazing.

Best case scenario our oppressors at big electric have to fix billions of dollars worth of stuff while we all have a campout party. 20+ cents per kwH makes me laugh at their problems. Maybe one day an x100 will come around and rid the world of them. Fingers crossed.

3 hours ago, Ильнур Хафизов said:

It's too harsh a statement on your part. Like other people who come to this site, I look at the overall picture of everything that is happening, and when I see the crimson red inscriptions X*number* on the entire screen of my laptop, in any case it will make me more wary. Although, as has been written many times on this forum, these solar flares will have a small impact on the earth. And for the media, this is a good reason to increase the viewing of the article and cause panic among other readers. Not all people have the interest or time to read tons of messages on this forum and how it will affect the earth when automatically the color of the message and large numbers signal the brain about danger. Although for some it makes them want to dig deeper and learn more about outbreaks (like me). That’s why you shouldn’t call people “stupid,” at least those who come here and once again ask the question about the outbreak and whether it can Boom the earth.

Her message wasn't harsh at all and she didn't call anyone stupid.  Websites post sensational stories with untrue or misleading facts to make people click and they don't care about the misplaced fear they cause. If people don't have time like you say than it makes it all the more important to find a reliable science backed source instead of somone making money off you reading their mistruths.

3 hours ago, Ильнур Хафизов said:

It's too harsh a statement on your part. Like other people who come to this site, I look at the overall picture of everything that is happening, and when I see the crimson red inscriptions X*number* on the entire screen of my laptop, in any case it will make me more wary. Although, as has been written many times on this forum, these solar flares will have a small impact on the earth. And for the media, this is a good reason to increase the viewing of the article and cause panic among other readers. Not all people have the interest or time to read tons of messages on this forum and how it will affect the earth when automatically the color of the message and large numbers signal the brain about danger. Although for some it makes them want to dig deeper and learn more about outbreaks (like me). That’s why you shouldn’t call people “stupid,” at least those who come here and once again ask the question about the outbreak and whether it can Boom the earth.

When have I called people "stupid"? I don't understand what you want to say with this comment.

Fearmongering that social media and some newspapers cause is not healthy and it causes unnecessary anxiety. It's not the people who come here that are scared that I am annoyed about, I am annoyed at these social media accounts that are spreading these doomsday apocalyptic messages. Ben Davidson is an example of someone who does this. I am and have always directed my annoyance to the source of the fearmongering which is the big accounts on social media that has a lot of following and that is spreading all this false information.

You must have read my comments all the wrong way.

9 minutes ago, StargazingHippy said:

Her message wasn't harsh at all and she didn't call anyone stupid.  Websites post sensational stories with untrue or misleading facts to make people click and they don't care about the misplaced fear they cause. If people don't have time like you say than it makes it all the more important to find a reliable science backed source instead of somone making money off you reading their mistruths.

This! This is exactly what I meant with my comments. It's the fearmongers with a big following that I am directing my critique to. Thank you!

55 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Когда я называл людей "глупыми"? Я не понимаю, что вы хотите сказать этим комментарием.

Разжигание страха, которое вызывают социальные сети и некоторые газеты, вредно для здоровья и вызывает ненужное беспокойство. Меня раздражают не люди, которые приходят сюда напуганными, меня раздражают эти аккаунты в социальных сетях, которые распространяют эти апокалиптические сообщения о конце света. Бен Дэвидсон - пример того, кто это делает. Я всегда направлял свое раздражение на источник распространения страха, которым являются крупные аккаунты в социальных сетях, у которых много подписчиков и которые распространяют всю эту ложную информацию.

Вы, должно быть, неправильно прочитали мои комментарии.

Это! Это именно то, что я имел в виду в своих комментариях. Я направляю свою критику распространителям страха с большим количеством подписчиков. Спасибо!

That's what we've come to, dear friend: even your seemingly harmless message can be perceived as completely aggressive. In the end, everything depends on the different perception of each of us: and excessive tension is just as harmful as excessive carelessness.

Sincerely, Ilnur. Where are you from, dear friend? Ufa, Bashkiria? Greetings to a compatriot! 🙏

Decouple. You have to decouple your idea of flares and CMEs. A massive flare can have a minor CME, and vice versa.

15 hours ago, Marcus said:

From what I’ve looked on the top 50 strongest solar flares this X8.7 is the 15th strongest 

the CME must be big

Big flares don’t equate to big CME’s. We’ve had plenty of X-class flares that have not produced a CME & plenty of smaller flares that have produced whoppers. 

Sure, most of us want huge CME’s with the big flares… doesn’t mean we’ll get them. 

11 minutes ago, silverstingray said:

Big flares don’t equate to big CME’s. We’ve had plenty of X-class flares that have not produced a CME & plenty of smaller flares that have produced whoppers. 

Sure, most of us want huge CME’s with the big flares… doesn’t mean we’ll get them. 

You've got it right. That X flare didn't put out a big CME, so to say that we dodged a bullet would be a overstatement.

1 hour ago, Maitreya said:

That's what we've come to, dear friend: even your seemingly harmless message can be perceived as completely aggressive. In the end, everything depends on the different perception of each of us: and excessive tension is just as harmful as excessive carelessness.

Sincerely, Ilnur. Where are you from, dear friend? Ufa, Bashkiria? Greetings to a compatriot! 🙏

Yes sadly people are affected by fearmongering and untrue information on social media that their brain goes on high alert for everything. This is actually normal human reactions. This is why we never should encourage people who spread false information and fear. We should debunk them when we can and we should rely on scientific theories that are the most proven. That’s actually what this forum does best. This forum is very scientific based and that is amazing.

Me and many other regulars on this forum have researched this a lot and with knowledge comes resilience. The more knowledge you have the less anxiety you get. 

I totally get that many people don’t want to learn about space weather, that’s okay. These people however need to block these social media accounts that are responsible for the fearmongering, and especially if those accounts creates anxiety. It’s not healthy to keep following people that always puts out doomsday scenarios.

I know there will always be people that don’t agree with me. I do find this very harmful cause anxiety and fear can be very crippling. It’s a serious issue and it honestly can ruin lives. 

All I ask is to not encourage these fearmongers and instead direct people away from their accounts.

This is the last statement from me in this manner. I am sorry if I sound harsh but I know how fear can affect people. 

Edited May 15, 20241 yr by arjemma

very suprised.

It appears that mankind has come full circle.  In the ancient times a display such as many of you witnessed was feared as the end of everything.  Later years brought out the realization that these displays are just a part of the beauty of the world we live in and were appreciated as such.  Now with sensationalism and half truths many have the same fears as those in ancient times did.  It's unfortunate!

In the last century sensationalism sold newspapers.  Today it's clicks.  It all boils down to a saying that is all too often true. "follow the money"  I'm personally quite ignorant about solar weather.  I do, however, recognize the expertise of many on this site.  I've seen articles on the web that even with what little knowledge I have of the subject it was plain that the author didn't know what he was talking about!  

So for those who fear, put your fears aside and listen to the folks on this site.  These solar cycles have been going on since the beginning of time and the sun is a stable star.  It's not going to destroy us anytime in the near or not so near future.

Last weekend was a very exciting time.  I felt the excitement along with those who had clear skies and were able to see the fantastic displays.(I was clouded in)  It was truly exciting and there was nothing to fear.

Hello there.

So I found this community because I'm one of those who have been affected by fearmongering of media. That's not to say this is entirely the fault of those sensationalist posts, I'm probably already predisposed towards extreme anxiety due to other stuff.

I kinda wanted a more factual information, which is extremely hard to come, all I find are biased educated guesses from both sides. doesn't help that the number of coincidences we are experiencing in the world right now is boosting by superstitious side.

2 hours ago, jarvisgobrr said:

I'm probably already predisposed towards extreme anxiety due to other stuff.

Oh yeah, I know that feeling. I've been trying my hardest to block social media due to all the sensationalizing of... pretty much anything and everything science (YouTube included for obvious reasons). Why people flock to those who have documented instances of misreading papers and/or not having any formal education in space weather is beyond me.

Edited May 15, 20241 yr by Bedreamon

5 hours ago, jarvisgobrr said:

Hello there.

So I found this community because I'm one of those who have been affected by fearmongering of media. That's not to say this is entirely the fault of those sensationalist posts, I'm probably already predisposed towards extreme anxiety due to other stuff.

I kinda wanted a more factual information, which is extremely hard to come, all I find are biased educated guesses from both sides. doesn't help that the number of coincidences we are experiencing in the world right now is boosting by superstitious side.

No one here is saying there are no effects what we all say is that they are not dangerous or catastrophic like many clickbait websites would lead you to believe and the media is designed to distract you from more important topics. Solar weather is not an exact science which is why we rely on the educated guesses of the people with the education. This group is a community forum so you'll find every level of knowledge and especially in the unproven theories thread there is always some lively discussion as people learn more and science develops. What is the question or information that you wanted a reliable source for I'm sure someone here will help.

Edited May 15, 20241 yr by StargazingHippy

I have been wandering the forum for a bit, and I see a lot of people saying that we are more protected against events like this compared to the time of the infamous "Carrington Event". It kinda irks me that like most fearmongering people I had also thought that these geomagnetic storms would have sent humanity back decades, and I for some idiotic reason didn't take all the advancements in technology since then into consideration. But I still would find it distasteful, if I were to regurgitate only what this site tells me, so I was wondering if someone would be kind enough to show me some resources where I could learn more about the impacts of such space weather, something like a textbook perhaps? While maybe so resources also teaching me about the physics of such event. I could just search, but that usually leads to me sensational media stuff, and I thought it'd be better to ask here than waste time refining my 'search'.

Also, I think I read somewhere in this forum that transmissions line would be at danger mainly but houses and such would be fine from such events? What is the reason behind this? Although, honestly I could just be remembering wrong.

Edited May 16, 20241 yr by Shin
Added another question

11 hours ago, Shin said:

I was wondering if someone would be kind enough to show me some resources where I could learn more about the impacts of such space weather

To get an idea to start with, here is a report of the event in 1989, which is the strongest geomagnetic storm we have good records of, including a section on the damage to equipment ("Damage to Equipment" section on page 7 of the PDF, or page 42 of the document its taken from).

As for more some more general resource that touches upon the general effects and some basic physics, something like An Introduction to Space Weather by Moldwin might be a good read. For example, it might address your question:

12 hours ago, Shin said:

Also, I think I read somewhere in this forum that transmissions line would be at danger mainly but houses and such would be fine from such events? What is the reason behind this?

In chapter 6 of the book ("Technological Impacts of Space Storms") there is section 6.7 ("Ground System Impacts"), with an introduction:

Quote

A number of technological systems on the ground are susceptible to space weather. During a large geomagnetic storm, large time-varying currents flow into and through the ionosphere. These ionospheric currents can induce currents in the ground and long conductors on the surface. Electric power lines, telephone lines, and pipelines are examples of long conductors on the ground. Induced currents in these systems can overload electrical components, causing failure, or can decrease the lifetime of the infrastructure by enhancing corrosion. The main principle behind these induced currents is called Faraday’s law of induction. This physical relationship describes how a time-changing magnetic field can induce current and voltage in a conductor. Electricity can be described in terms of current or voltage, which are related through a relationship called Ohm’s law. In space, electrical currents flow into, through, and out of the ionosphere. These currents intensify and move to lower latitudes during geomagnetic storms. The time-changing and spatially varying currents create a time-changing magnetic field. According to Faraday’s law, this time-changing magnetic field can then induce a voltage in long conductors and through the conductive layer of Earth’s surface. These geomagnetic induced currents (GIC) can couple into ground electrical and pipeline systems. A power transmission wire is a good conductor designed to carry electrical signals long distances. On Earth, we have millions of kilometers of wire connecting buildings and houses with power plants and phone companies. These electric and communication grids are therefore susceptible to space weather effects. Figure 6.5 demonstrates how currents flowing in the ionosphere due to space weather events create GIC that can couple to power transmission systems and lead to damage in power transformers throughout the grid system.

It might not be entirely clear why it only affects long conductors from this though, but in short it's essentially because the resulting voltage gradients are actually quite small, but occur over very long distances. If you look at e.g. this model, you can see how the upper end of what's normal is only ~100 mV/km; that means that it would take 2300 km of wire along the gradient to achieve a voltage of 230 V, which is common for power outlets. You can also see how the stronger storms can have gradients of as much as 1 V/km (1000 mV/km), or even 10 V/km (10,000 mV/km) or more for the very strongest. The 1989 storm has been estimated at peak gradients of ~20 V/km in certain places, which is the most extreme we've ever observed. There you can note that it would just take 11.5 km of wire along the gradient to achieve 230 V, making it clear how long transmission wires can be affected; on the other hand, even at those extremes, even a wire running along the gradient of a 100-meter long house would just experience a voltage of 2 V end-to-end, which is why short lines would not be at risk.

I would also note that Moldwin does address the scenario of a "perfect storm" and what the absolute worst-case scenario would be, which is what most anxious people seem to be the most afraid of:

Quote

It is estimated that if a perfect storm occurs during the next solar maximum (a large geomagnetic storm occurring during a heavy electrical usage interval due to a cold snap or heat wave, or even during an interval of low electric use when more power is shuttled across larger distances), hundreds of transformers could be damaged or destroyed. Replacement could take years because transformer manufacturing is expensive and fairly limited. The US Department of Homeland Security estimates that such a storm could cost over $2 trillion dollars due to the severe economic disruption and could potentially cause civil unrest due to impacts on transportation, agriculture, retail, healthcare, water supplies, and communication systems.

This however neither addresses just how rare such a storm would be nor how contemporary power grids are actively on the lookout for extreme geomagnetic activity and more ready to save those crucial pieces of equipment than ever before. For the recent storm I've now seen multiple reports of grid engineers taking what was happening into consideration and either taking parts of the grid offline or being highly prepared to do so at a moment's notice, and doing so would greatly diminish the risk of such a worst-case scenario, because putting that equipment back online is not going to be much of a problem compared to having to replace it.

@PhilalethesThanks a lot for all the information, now I can add that to the random assortment of knowledge my mind contains. I will also be reading that report and the book.

Hey, just a question which might be a bit stupid since I'm no electrical engineer but do we have circuits designed to protect against DC on power lines?

I thought something like this inserted at regular intervals on power grids could alleviate a bit the risks.

It would be a bit wasteful, and maybe dissipate a lot of power, and I'm not sure how big a capacitor and inductor would have to be or if its even feasible. but something like this should be theoretically possible, right?

 

Edited May 17, 20241 yr by jarvisgobrr