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You'd be surprised by the lack of CME's when we have big flares similar to this. Besides that, the solar storm that was released by the solar flare seems about average (it's too early to make a complete accurate judgement though). 

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As a total newbie to all this kind of thing, can someone explain to me why this carrington level sunspot didn't seemed to worry anyone around ? (i'm not making this up, it's litteraly written in space weather.com) which kind of sunspot can really be dangerous and how likely it is to appear ? 

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29 minutes ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said:

As a total newbie to all this kind of thing, can someone explain to me why this carrington level sunspot didn't seemed to worry anyone around ? (i'm not making this up, it's litteraly written in space weather.com) which kind of sunspot can really be dangerous and how likely it is to appear ? 

I'm not an expert, but for one thing the Earth has been through a lot stronger solar flares and CMEs than what we've seen in the past week.  A few posts above is a screenshot of the X24 flare and solar storm that hit Earth back in 2003, and reports were that parts of Sweden lost power for about an hour and a dozen transformers in South Africa had to be replaced.  It didn't bring total power collapse, the end of society as we know it, or any long lasting consequences.   

The effects of the Carrington event is difficult to compare to modern times.  That event occurred in 1859 and most of the effects were seen in the only real electronic infrastructure of the time, the telegraph system.  In 1859, they did not employ even the most basic of circuit protections on the telegraph lines.  The French physicist Breguet suggested the use of reduced conductors on telegraph lines to protect against lightning strike, but that wasn't until 1864.   Thomas Edison patented the electric fuse in 1890, long after the Carrington event.   The point being, when the C.E. occurred, there were no protections in use on miles and miles of telegraph cable that had been strung everywhere.  Today, our electrical system is much more protected.  If I owned a electric utility or my job was in maintaining the electrical infrastructure I would certainly be paying attention to space weather and it's impact on the electric grid, but it's a totally different situation than what we had in 1859.  

The other difficulty with the Carrington Event is we don't have a lot of clear details on the precise nature of the event as it was before modern observation and recording.  We don't really know how large the event was, although we can make some educated guesses.  We do know it was a very unusual event though, as the time between when Carrington (and others) recorded the flare to the time it impacted Earth was extremely short, only 17.6 hours to go 150 million kilometers.   That means the CME was traveling over 2,000km/s which I believe has not been observed in the time since we've been able to measure it (I think the 1950s).  

Edited by casualseer366
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43 minutes ago, Mogh, Lord of Blood said:

As a total newbie to all this kind of thing, can someone explain to me why this carrington level sunspot didn't seemed to worry anyone around ? (i'm not making this up, it's litteraly written in space weather.com) which kind of sunspot can really be dangerous and how likely it is to appear ? 

Part one: We are far more prepared for anything that is coming, even if a Carrington type event happens today.

Part two: We don't know exactly what a CME has in store until it reaches a satellite. Obviously the fast CMEs are the good ones, but we don't know everything about a CME until it arrives.

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20 minutes ago, casualseer366 said:

I'm not an expert, but for one thing the Earth has been through a lot stronger solar flares and CMEs than what we've seen in the past week.  A few posts above is a screenshot of the X24 flare and solar storm that hit Earth back in 2003, and reports were that parts of Sweden lost power for about an hour and a dozen transformers in South Africa had to be replaced.  It didn't bring total power collapse, the end of society as we know it, or any long lasting consequences.   

The effects of the Carrington event is difficult to compare to modern times.  That event occurred in 1859 and most of the effects were seen in the only real electronic infrastructure of the time, the telegraph system.  In 1859, they did not employ even the most basic of circuit protections on the telegraph lines.  The French physicist Breguet suggested the use of reduced conductors on telegraph lines to protect against lightning strike, but that wasn't until 1864.   Thomas Edison patented the electric fuse in 1890, long after the Carrington event.   The point being, when the C.E. occurred, there were no protections in use on miles and miles of telegraph cable that had been strung everywhere.  Today, our electrical system is much more protected.  If I owned a electric utility or my job was in maintaining the electrical infrastructure I would certainly be paying attention to space weather and it's impact on the electric grid, but it's a totally different situation than what we had in 1859.  

The other difficulty with the Carrington Event is we don't have a lot of clear details on the precise nature of the event as it was before modern observation and recording.  We don't really know how large the event was, although we can make some educated guesses.  We do know it was a very unusual event though, as the time between when Carrington (and others) recorded the flare to the time it impacted Earth was extremely short, only 17.6 hours to go 150 million kilometers.   That means the CME was traveling over 2,000km/s which I believe has not been observed in the time since we've been able to measure it (I think the 1950s).  

Do you mean over 2000kms on arrival? 

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7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Do you mean over 2000kms on arrival? 

Good point, I don't know.  I just know the time it would take to cover the distance needed.   I guess I am not sure if we can ever know how fast it was on arrival.  

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12 minutes ago, Tino Lehtonen said:

The CME looks huge in STEREO, where it originated from?

It looks somewhat small compared to how eruptive it was. There is the X8.79 flare CME on the right and a filament CME on the left.

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5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It looks somewhat small compared to how eruptive it was. There is the X8.79 flare CME on the right and a filament CME on the left.

Ah ok, I meant the one on NE. Was it frome the plage area? It has been letting off a couple of those filaments in a few days. Looks like one triggered the other? Too bad they are heading in every direction except us, can't have too many aurora eh? 😄

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2 hours ago, casualseer366 said:

That means the CME was traveling over 2,000km/s which I believe has not been observed in the time since we've been able to measure it (I think the 1950s).  

We have seen even in recent times that were probably faster, including one earlier this cycle (that I remember @arjemma called a "beautiful big eruption", I even dug up the thread where it was initially discussed here), and the 1972 CME still stands as the fastest we know of (at a transit time of ~14.6 hours, an average transit speed of almost 3000 km/s).

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