13 minutes ago, AndrewB said:

SWPC says the morning halo is the result of the C6.7 flare peaks at 05:54Z in AR3683 near SW limb and it will impact Earth on Wednesday sparking G1-G3 storm. SIDC thinks so too.  LOL. Could the two agencies be seriously wrong? For me It seems, like previous users, that the morning halo is from the farside, probably from AR3664.

I find that really hard to believe given the fact that I can see the halo at 05:36Z on C2, at which point that flare had just barely begun. Also seems completely unrealistic for a flare that small to produce a halo like that, although looking at the imagery there does seem to be a fair amount of movement there for a flare that small (but it doesn't look eruptive, and clearly seems to happen after the halo is already visible on C2).

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

I find that really hard to believe given the fact that I can see the halo at 05:36Z on C2, at which point that flare had just barely begun. Also seems completely unrealistic for a flare that small to produce a halo like that, although looking at the imagery there does seem to be a fair amount of movement there for a flare that small (but it doesn't look eruptive, and clearly seems to happen after the halo is already visible on C2).

I agree with you, Philaletes. Experts on Twitter do too.

 

1 uur terug, AndrewB zei:

SWPC says the morning halo is the result of the C6.7 flare peaks at 05:54Z in AR3683 near SW limb and it will impact Earth on Wednesday sparking G1-G3 storm. SIDC thinks so too.  LOL. Could the two agencies be seriously wrong? For me It seems, like previous users, that the morning halo is from the farside, probably from AR3664.

What the...? This is insane. How can they both be wrong?! This is clearly a far side eruption most likely from 3664. You can even see it in the corona if you look closely at SDO 193A around the time of the CME. This is 100% a far side eruption and i am willing to bet good money on it. No way that little C-flare produced such a major CME.

It's odd, SWPC even recognize themselves in the discussion, that the halo is visible before the flare:

Quote

Analysis and modelling are underway for a halo CME first seen in C2 imagery at
20/0536 UTC. This event is associated with a C6.7 flare at 20/0554 UTC
from AR 3683.

 

5 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

What the...? This is insane. How can they both be wrong?! This is clearly a far side eruption most likely from 3664. You can even see it in the corona if you look closely at SDO 193A around the time of the CME. This is 100% a far side eruption and i am willing to bet good money on it. No way that little C-flare produced such a major CME.

I dont know how to access the Suvi archive, but was there even dimming visible that would correlate to a cme? I think @Philalethes mentioned, that there was barely a CME. 

Im so so so confused. I dont see model runs anywhere. 

5 minutes ago, helios said:

It's odd, SWPC even recognize themselves in the discussion, that the halo is visible before the flare:

 

Jesus christ..

I think this animation should put the discussion to bed.

11 minutes ago, helios said:

It's odd, SWPC even recognize themselves in the discussion, that the halo is visible before the flare:

 

Better take cover, this CME is moving faster than light and backwards through time; actually, it hit us two days ago!

A comparison with the LASCO and STEREO A images would have been enough to find out that the CME is on the farside. While the CME is full halo in the LASCO images, there is no full halo in the STEREO A images but still directed west. If it were directed towards the earth it would also have to be full halo or in east direction in the STEREO A images since STEREO A is west of the earth.

Should be unacceptable for them to make a rookie mistake like this, or rather keep making rookie mistakes like these no?

24 minutes ago, mozy said:

Should be unacceptable for them to make a rookie mistake like this, or rather keep making rookie mistakes like these no?

I *think* iv'e witnessed them doing this type of mishap at least once? Not too sure. What about you? (I've only been in it for 5 years so...)

But to answer your question, yes. Especially with SIDC and possibly Met chiming in.

I mean, im excited for AR3683 as well, because for such a young area it shows a lot of future promise but...cmon. 

it was modeled finally. SolO is gonna get hit at about midnight UTC with density 50 and speed 1200, probably G5 if the same was on Earth. Btw SolO measured the flare which was the source of the CME as X12

Edited May 20, 20241 yr by tniickck

22 minutes ago, tniickck said:

it was modeled finally. SolO is gonna get hit at about midnight UTC with density 50 and speed 1200, probably G5 if the same was on Earth. Btw SolO measured the flare which was the source of the CME as X12

but isnt the flare strength relatively uncertain ? I dont understand the CJ Sigma things/measurements and uncertainty stuff. @Philalethes do you maybe know some more details? 

22 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

but isnt the flare strength relatively uncertain ? I dont understand the CJ Sigma things/measurements and uncertainty stuff. @Philalethes do you maybe know some more details? 

i figured it out. in the past, as i remember, i made a thread that SolO measured the X6.3 flare on 22nd Feb as X15. i understood that it is due to the fact it was closer to the sun and the values were higher there. you should always look at GOES approx when using stix, it interpretes the measurements to 1 AU value. for example SolO is now about 0.8 AU away from Sun and it measured today's morning flare as X16, it was approximated to 1 AU as X12

Edited May 20, 20241 yr by tniickck

4 minutes ago, tniickck said:

i figured it out. in the past, as i remember, i made a thread that SolO measured the X6.3 flare on 22nd Feb as X15. i understood that it is due to the fact it was closer to the sun and the values were higher there. you should always look at GOES approx when using stix, it interpretes the measurements to 1 AU value. for example SolO is now about 0.8 AU away from Sun and it measured today's morning flare as X16, it was approximated to 1 AU as X12

Yeah i know, but it still gives a wide range and i dont know how reliable/precise it is because it gave other flares on the limb (x6 or so,) as x18 etc.

still very nice update! Thank you. 

19 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

but isnt the flare strength relatively uncertain ? I dont understand the CJ Sigma things/measurements and uncertainty stuff. @Philalethes do you maybe know some more details? 

Yeah, it's probably not that accurate, at least not for flares that strong. As we talked about for the previous ones, it got the X8.8 right, but some time before that it had overestimated a flare by quite a bit too, so it's hard to say anything for sure.

The confidence interval (CI) indicates how sure they are that the flare actually would have fallen within that range. 1-sigma is a fairly low confidence level, meaning that they expect ~68% of the actual flares to fall within the stated range; in contrast, in particle physics the gold standard is 5-sigma, where 99.99994% of the measurements are expected to fall within the given range.

Even on the opposite side, the protons have increased slightly. 

 

Maybe the SWPC saw a halo in the halo. Eh, I'd rather they mess up than the NWS.

Edited May 20, 20241 yr by Jesterface23

It would be especially nice if this region is continuing to be fed when it returns.  Another weather, bz, moon perfection is too much to ask. But would be nice to get another “ proton sandwich” as @tniickck coined a good analogy last week, I thought. 

2 hours ago, Christopher Shriver said:

Mmm, I think I just lost my appetite lmao! What an incredibly fun couple of days.

Haha.  We may not like to chunder ( aussieism) But we wish multiple chunders from its next round.👍👍

Apparently this region is still active, it produced an estimated X12 flare yesterday, as seen with STIX.

It passed the central meridian as seen from Solar Orbiter about two days ago.

Edited May 21, 20241 yr by FredSchuller
updated quick-look light curves (X12 estimate)

Quote

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 21 0030 UTC

After further modeling and analysis, the halo CME observed in
coronagraph imagery earlier in the period, was determined to be a
far-sided event, likely from old Region 3664.

The world is back in order 😌

Edited May 21, 20241 yr by helios

I'm still kind of worried it will do a big CME at earth, but i doubt it.

Just read through the early part of the thread, as this all began before I took an interest in solar weather (thank you 3664!) - and I gotta say, hope to experience the ride with yall when she wraps back around! 

12 hours ago, FredSchuller said:

Apparently this region is still active, it produced an estimated X12 flare yesterday, as seen with STIX.

It passed the central meridian as seen from Solar Orbiter about two days ago.

 

It hasn't done a CME today, according to DONKI so maybe it's calming down.