2 minutes ago, B9FX said:

Note: CME seen to the W in STEREO COR2A, not yet observed in SOHO LASCO due to a lengthy planned data gap that will end at 2024-05-17T02:10Z. The source is far-sided around the west limb, and very likely old AR 3664, estimated to be located around W120 at this time. Best observed as fieldline movement and an EUV wave starting around 2024-05-16T13:34Z in SDO AIA 171/193/211 and GOES SUVI 284.

Source? thanks!  

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Source? thanks!  

Whoops thought it copied with it its Donki, from M2M Tony Iampietro was the forecaster    Link:   View Space Weather Activity (nasa.gov)

Damn it keeps going

4 minutes ago, mozy said:

Damn it keeps going

Did you see it in Suvi too? Or something in lasco? (I thought I saw an eruption SW quadrant 12:35z) but maybe you’re talking about something not as recent  

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Did you see it in Suvi too? Or something in lasco? (I thought I saw an eruption SW quadrant 12:35z) but maybe you’re talking about something not as recent  

I'm talking about now yes

Edited for sleep deprivation.

Edited May 17, 20241 yr by B9FX
Sleep deprived

14 minutes ago, B9FX said:

They aren't sure the cme they are referring to is unnumbered region of the disk, 

 

Significant interplanetary shock detected by DSCOVR at L1 at 2024-05-17T12:40Z. 

The cause for this shock is still under analysis. It might be caused by an arrival of the CME with ID 2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001 (see notification 20240514-AL-008).  Magnetospheric compression and geomagnetic storm expected. 

Activity ID: 2024-05-17T12:40:00-IPS-001.

 

 

Coronal Mass Ejection
Catalog: M2M_CATALOG
Start Time: 2024-05-14T10:09Z ( STEREO A: SECCHI/COR2 )

All Detecting Spacecrafts:

STEREO A: SECCHI/COR2

SOHO: LASCO/C2

SOHO: LASCO/C3

Activity ID: 2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001 (version 1)

Note: Wide CME seen to the NE in all coronagraphs (STEREO A gets first visible frame). Source is an unnumbered region of the solar disk, centered around N23E35. Starting around 2024-05-14T09:07Z, field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211 alongside a diagonal region of light dimming spanning approximately N40E60 -> N15E30 across that center point. A distinct post-eruptive arcade forms around 2024-05-14T10:47Z across SDO AIA 131/171/193/211.
Submitted on 2024-05-14T18:39Z by Tony Iampietro

A Notification with ID 20240514-AL-008 was sent on 2024-05-14T18:58Z

 

Here is The AL 008 notification 

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-05-14T18:58:27Z
## Message ID: 20240514-AL-008
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-05-14T10:09Z.

Estimated speed: ~744 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -34/41 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001

 
Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-05-17T23:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-3 (below minor).

Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-05-14T10:09:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240514_145400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif

## Notes: 

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s

Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information (CCMC DONKI) Disclaimer
 

And what does this have to do with anything I said 😅

1 minute ago, mozy said:

And what does this have to do with anything I said 😅

Were you  referring to the current solar wind activity ?

 

2 hours ago, mozy said:

Damn it keeps going

 

2 minutes ago, B9FX said:

Were you  referring to the current solar wind activity ?

 

 

No, mozy saw an eruption (not earth directed) from this sunspot on the farside

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

No, mozy saw an eruption (not earth directed) from this sunspot on the farside

 

18 minutes ago, mozy said:

And what does this have to do with anything I said 😅

Bwhahahah my apologies, I must have missed that comment!!! I still need to catch up on sleep from last week, We had 3 rounds of tornadoes and the solar storm in one week !

Another thing to remember, the chance  of a Carrington type CME is very low   and the events we've been getting from the farside are significantly weaker than the Carrington event. So all this fear mongering about such a CME is nonsense to me at least.

Is the Southern CME seen on Lasco from this Region? It could be a filament too, i think. it looks slow? (thats a guess)

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Is the Southern CME seen on Lasco from this Region? It could be a filament too, i think. it looks slow? (thats a guess)

It could also come from 3663 which also looks quite large on the farside images.

11 minutes ago, Misaka said:

It could also come from 3663 which also looks quite large on the farside images.

On which Farside Maps are you tracking it? Can you maybe show me? I only see one southern region being this one! But im always a bit blind.   ❤️ 

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

On which Farside Maps are you tracking it? Can you maybe show me? I only see one southern region being this one! But im always a bit blind.   ❤️ 

Used the farside image from stanford.

http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/timed/current_img/current_synch_NRT.jpg

The top black spot is 3663.

@danderson400:

Better to use this thread for any continued discussion of 3664, at least until it comes back around and we see what's become of it (and it gets a new region number if it's still there).

Until earlier today there hadn't really been any notable CMEs from it lately, but around 05:30Z you can see the first signs of a halo CME on C2, presumably from this region (not certain, but it would fit fairly well). LASCO imagery can be seen here.

SolO is still in a good position to measure whatever flare it might have been associated with, so we'll get an idea of that too when that data comes in (STIX data can be found here).

I wonder if it's a fliament instead?

50 minutes ago, danderson400 said:

I wonder if it's a fliament instead?

no. it was a fast and dense cme

But still weaker than Carrington or 1921, no?

1 minute ago, danderson400 said:

But still weaker than Carrington or 1921, no?

no one knows yet, but i guess it was weaker. waiting for the model 

21 minutes ago, danderson400 said:

But still weaker than Carrington or 1921, no?

We should stop comparing every CME to carrington, I don’t know why even. Farside halo cme‘s happen all the time…

My best guess is, as @Philalethes has already said and this tweet confirms, maybe this region is calming down. we cant know for sure. Less powerful CMEs, Less attentuator use. we'll see in like 9 days or so.

41 minutes ago, danderson400 said:

But still weaker than Carrington or 1921, no?

Not even remotely close.

SWPC says the morning halo is the result of the C6.7 flare peaks at 05:54Z in AR3683 near SW limb and it will impact Earth on Wednesday sparking G1-G3 storm. SIDC thinks so too.  LOL. Could the two agencies be seriously wrong? For me It seems, like previous users, that the morning halo is from the farside, probably from AR3664.

8 minutes ago, AndrewB said:

SWPC says the morning halo is the result of the C6.7 flare peaks at 05:54Z in AR3683 near SW limb and it will impact Earth on Wednesday sparking G1-G3 storm. SIDC thinks so too.  LOL. Could the two agencies be seriously wrong? For me It seems, like previous users, that the morning halo is from the farside, probably from AR3664.

Yeah ive seen Solarham and at least 2 Space weather experts on Twitter say the same? Im so confused. i'll check Met

10 minutes ago, AndrewB said:

SWPC says the morning halo is the result of the C6.7 flare peaks at 05:54Z in AR3683 near SW limb and it will impact Earth on Wednesday sparking G1-G3 storm. SIDC thinks so too.  LOL. Could the two agencies be seriously wrong? For me It seems, like previous users, that the morning halo is from the farside, probably from AR3664.

it is obviously from the farside. kinda funny lmao