so i shouldn't be worried about this sunspot when it come back? Kind of worried about a Carrington CME.

Lasco updated

57 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Dr. Finley on Twitter! @Philalethes might know something too

Thanks, I will look it up and do some googling.

1 hour ago, casualseer366 said:

But when the sun approaches the maximum, it starts making the news, more people start paying attention and one thing they notice is "hey, how come I didn't hear about this stuff earlier?  Why does it seem to be only happening now?  A few years ago, there wasn't anything going on?"

Indeed; a classic example of the recency illusion.

8 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Indeed; a classic example of the recency illusion.

Thank you for giving this a name. theres also another phenomena, but i forgot the name, where you will notice stuff more after you learned about it, or the name of it.

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Dr. Finley on Twitter! @Philalethes might know something too

20 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Thanks, I will look it up and do some googling.

I didn't until now, but I did find the data pages for each of the PSP instruments; they're not up-to-date though, they seem to be published in bulk once per "encounter" (perihelion passage, I believe), the last of which was in March of this year (2024). Here are the data pages for the instruments:

• FIELDS
• WISPR
• SWEAP
• IS☉IS

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you for giving this a name. theres also another phenomena, but i forgot the name, where you will notice stuff more after you learned about it, or the name of it.

Probably thinking about the frequency illusion (Baader–Meinhof phenomenon), which is indeed very closely related. Also a very common form of cognitive bias.

11 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I didn't until now, but I did find the data pages for each of the PSP instruments; they're not up-to-date though, they seem to be published in bulk once per "encounter" (perihelion passage, I believe), the last of which was in March of this year (2024). Here are the data pages for the instruments:

• FIELDS
• WISPR
• SWEAP
• IS☉IS

Cool, thank you!

It's sad that they don't update more often but it's also understandable as I don't think that is their main priority.

21 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I didn't until now, but I did find the data pages for each of the PSP instruments; they're not up-to-date though, they seem to be published in bulk once per "encounter" (perihelion passage, I believe), the last of which was in March of this year (2024). Here are the data pages for the instruments:

• FIELDS
• WISPR
• SWEAP
• IS☉IS

Probably thinking about the frequency illusion (Baader–Meinhof phenomenon), which is indeed very closely related. Also a very common form of cognitive bias.

Exactly this!

So how big would a CME get to be Carrington type?

Am i reading this right? X8.79?!?! 

WHAT 

OF COURSE ITS ON THE LIMB THOUGH

Edited May 14, 20241 yr by Solarflaretracker200

29 minutes ago, danderson400 said:

So how big would a CME get to be Carrington type?

The most commonly cited estimated for the Carrington flare that produced the CME is X64 in current terms. A CME of that caliber must be very fast and dense (the Carrington event CME is estimated at an average transit speed of ~2400 km/s).

Edited May 14, 20241 yr by Philalethes
speed, not time

another one?

Here we go again (assuming it's from this region)!

Aaaand another one. I think this breaks the record for the most X-flares from a region as someone noted yesterday.

2 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Here we go again (assuming it's from this region)!

Yes looking at suvi i think it is

Looking at SDO it's definitely from this region.  

so, yesterdays flare was not so much occulted but what about this one? What do you think is the true reading? @Vancanneyt Sander said If we can still see the loops "good" its not that much occulted. i think it was a bit stronger but dont know how much..

10 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Aaaand another one. I think this breaks the record for the most X-flares from a region as someone noted yesterday.

From the archive it seems it's tied between this and 10808 at 11 X-flares, but I might have missed some region; not sure about earlier regions and what data exists on those.

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

so, yesterdays flare was not so much occulted but what about this one? What do you think is the true reading?

Probably a bit higher, but hard to say how much. The other flare was estimated at X8 by STIX as well:

2 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

From the archive it seems it's tied between this and 10808 at 11 X-flares, but I might have missed some region; not sure about earlier regions and what data exists on those.

Probably a bit higher, but hard to say how much. The other flare was estimated at X8 by STIX as well:

yeah but stix has to be used carefully sometimes it overestimates flares by alot. yesterday it gave a margin up to X28 but we know it wasnt that high because it was not that occulted. (just saying this before people here go crazy)

Probably like x4 to x4.5

12 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

yeah but stix has to be used carefully sometimes it overestimates flares by alot. yesterday it gave a margin up to X28 but we know it wasnt that high because it was not that occulted. (just saying this before people here go crazy)

In this case we observed it at X8.8 from our side too though, so it's probably reasonably accurate, maybe even very slightly underestimating it.

But the point about the margin is true, people definitely shouldn't look at the upper bound and think "yep, that must have been an X20!"

SolarHam mentioned that this is the 12th X-flare from this region while on the archive it should be the 11th. Who would have thought there would come a day we lost count of the Xs.

5 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

SolarHam mentioned that this is the 12th X-flare from this region while on the archive it should be the 11th. Who would have thought there would come a day we lost count of the Xs.

There is a an X1.02 on May 8 which apparently wasn't assigned to any region, which from the images seems to clearly have been from this region, so that could be the missing flare.

Pretty meaty looking CME from that flare too on LASCO. Really hope this region is still going when it comes back around.

Limb of dissapointment strikes again....