2 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

Can I ask you a question... Why so many M and X flares this month, is this unusual, because graphs shows unstable this month and April... any historical events that was the same, or it's unique?

I ask, because this unstable parts is really long, compared with calendar's statistic, is it bad?

And yea, I know that was X's larger than this, but anyways, it's too frequent and long... which makes me ask this

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

When we get such a complex region like this one, it isn't uncommon. These complex regions are rare though, but given we are in the years of solar maximum, they can pop up at any time without notice.

Very interesting, but what if it's affect sun? Or if it's hitting a lot of this little X's that means that it will be chiller and not be stronger overall

This show the decay, a bit closer, can anyone tell if the area has shrunk?

 

Just now, Arman Sargsyan said:

Can I ask you a question... Why so many M and X flares this month, is this unusual, because graphs shows unstable this month and April... any historical events that was the same, or it's unique?

Not unusual at all around the time of Solar maximum and for some time after. If you scroll through the months in the archive from around year 2000 you'll see lots of months with a lot of flares at and after maximum.

3 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Not unusual at all around the time of Solar maximum and for some time after. If you scroll through the months in the archive from around year 2000 you'll see lots of months with a lot of flares at and after maximum.

Hmm... let me see, and if any question occur, I would like to ask

5 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

Very interesting, but what if it's affect sun? Or if it's hitting a lot of this little X's that means that it will be chiller and not be stronger overall

It will vary per region, not the Sun overall. Different parts of a region can be more complex than others as well and doing different things. Still a lot that we don't know exactly

7 minutes ago, danderson400 said:

This show the decay, a bit closer, can anyone tell if the area has shrunk?

 

Most of the region is on the other side of the Sun at this point. It might all be over the limb withing the next half a day.

7 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Not unusual at all around the time of Solar maximum and for some time after. If you scroll through the months in the archive from around year 2000 you'll see lots of months with a lot of flares at and after maximum.

I scrolled the whole 2000 year events and noticed that many "Green lines" after relatively small orange graphs, it usually don't take month, maximum maybe 10-15 days... I just interested in graphs where 30 day's for example... orange-red lines on graphs

16 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Currently, very likely no. Plus arrivals from CMEs that close to the limb will just about always be fairly weak at L1/Earth.

Thanks for the evaluation. 

12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

When we get such a complex region like this one, it isn't uncommon. These complex regions are rare though, but given we are in the years of solar maximum, they can pop up at any time without notice.

Do you think this year is maximums year? i thought 25 o:

21 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It is possible to be impacted by CMEs slightly over the limb, though rare. So far from STEREO A's lower quality imagery, I don't see a shock large enough to have any Earth-directed component. Note any halo is mostly on the far side.

Thanks². will you keep us updated?  Youre Mr.CME  

4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It will vary per region, not the Sun overall. Different parts of a region can be more complex than others as well and doing different things. Still a lot that we don't know exactly

Most of the region is on the other side of the Sun at this point. It might all be over the limb withing the next half a day.

 

9 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It will vary per region, not the Sun overall. Different parts of a region can be more complex than others as well and doing different things. Still a lot that we don't know exactly

Since this date, it's only orange and red Lines...
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2024/04/11/xray.html
It's the longest I've seen

9 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

I scrolled the whole 2000 year events and noticed that many "Green lines" after relatively small orange graphs, it usually don't take month, maximum maybe 10-15 days... I just interested in graphs where 30 day's for example... orange-red lines on graphs

Could you link to the exact page you're looking at? There are a lot of colored graphs and bars in the archive, so it's hard to tell exactly what you're referring to.

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

Could you link to the exact page you're looking at? There are a lot of colored graphs and bars in the archive, so it's hard to tell exactly what you're referring to.

Here
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2024/04/11/xray.html

1 minute ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

Here
https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2024/04/11/xray.html

What exactly on that page are you referring to? The graph of the X-ray flux? Doesn't seem very unusual to me.

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

What exactly on that page are you referring to? The graph of the X-ray flux? Doesn't seem very unusual to me.

Since 11 April 2024 there were no or little green graphs, until this days...
"Green lines"

Edited May 14, 20241 yr by Arman Sargsyan

Just now, Philalethes said:

What exactly on that page are you referring to? The graph of the X-ray flux? Doesn't seem very unusual to me.

He's new to the whole Spaceweather World. He's worried about the length of the current intense flaring. He looks at the Graph and all he sees is orange and red, since we had high background flux and Frequent X flaring. He was unable to see similar periods in the graph with such intense/long activity. thats how i interpret it.

Just now, Arman Sargsyan said:

Since 11 April 2024 there were no or little green graphs, until this days...
"Green lines"

To answer your question like @Jesterface23 did before, a high background flux and many flares happen with such regions as 3664. The graph is one thing to look at, but alone its just one peace of the whole mosaic.

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

He's new to the whole Spaceweather World. He's worried about the length of the current intense flaring. He looks at the Graph and all he sees is orange and red, since we had high background flux and Frequent X flaring. He was unable to see similar periods in the graph with such intense/long activity. thats how i interpret it.

Correct!

Just now, Arman Sargsyan said:

Correct!

We had multiple days ( up to 3-4ish i think?) with constant M class background before. A big sunspot thats complex will do that from time to time. its not something that happens every 2 weeks but the graph alone is relatively useless in saying anything except "its active right now" 

4 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

Since 11 April 2024 there were no or little green graphs, until this days...
"Green lines"

The line being green on the graph just means the X-ray flux has dipped down into B-class, which is very quiet. You'll find lots of periods where the flux is continuously in C-class (orange and above). Look e.g. around here, just as an example near 2000, as I mentioned. You can also find multiple periods like this even earlier in this cycle.

Edited May 14, 20241 yr by Philalethes
link, typo

Also the green dips were actually occultations and not an actual decrease of x-rays.

3 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

The line being green on the graph just means the X-ray flux has dipped down into B-class, which is very quiet. You'll find lots of periods where the flux is continuously in X-class (orange and above). Look e.g. around here, just as an example near 2000, as I mentioned. You can also find multiple periods like this even earlier in this cycle.

Hmmm... 24 day straight orange since July 5 2000. And now we have 15 days straight ( Actually little longer, but because I saw several long green ones, I decided to not include them)

2 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

Hmmm... 24 day straight orange since July 5 2000. And now we have 15 days straight ( Actually little longer, but because I saw several long green ones, I decided to not include them)

But! But I just noticed that this graphs is decreasing after 10 May 

35 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

Can I ask you a question... Why so many M and X flares this month, is this unusual, because graphs shows unstable this month and April... any historical events that was the same, or it's unique?

I ask, because this unstable parts is really long, compared with calendar's statistic, is it bad?

It's kind of like hurricane season.  On earth, during certain parts of the year hurricanes (or typhoons) are a lot more common to the point where it's not unusual for major hurricanes develop.  It happens the same times every year, but each season is unique so it's not like they can predict a hurricane at a specific time but from mid-August to late-October, one can expect major hurricanes to develop in the Caribbean. 

The solar cycle is like that, we have a solar minimum where the sun is pretty quiet and not much goes on, and we have a solar maximum where it gets a lot more active and you see a lot more complex sunspots and solar storms.  But unlike Earth the cycle isn't yearly but 11 years.   This means we have a few years where nothing much happens and the sun is calm and not active, and it ramps up where you have a lot of activity as it approaches the solar maximum.  What I see happens is people don't pay much attention to solar weather and the solar cycle when the sun is calm, it's not in the news.   But when the sun approaches the maximum, it starts making the news, more people start paying attention and one thing they notice is "hey, how come I didn't hear about this stuff earlier?  Why does it seem to be only happening now?  A few years ago, there wasn't anything going on?"  That's the solar cycle for you, nothing was going on a few years ago because we were in the quiet part of the cycle.   

2 minutes ago, casualseer366 said:

It's kind of like hurricane season.  On earth, during certain parts of the year hurricanes (or typhoons) are a lot more common to the point where it's not unusual for major hurricanes develop.  It happens the same times every year, but each season is unique so it's not like they can predict a hurricane at a specific time but from mid-August to late-October, one can expect major hurricanes to develop in the Caribbean. 

The solar cycle is like that, we have a solar minimum where the sun is pretty quiet and not much goes on, and we have a solar maximum where it gets a lot more active and you see a lot more complex sunspots and solar storms.  But unlike Earth the cycle isn't yearly but 11 years.   This means we have a few years where nothing much happens and the sun is calm and not active, and it ramps up where you have a lot of activity as it approaches the solar maximum.  What I see happens is people don't pay much attention to solar weather and the solar cycle when the sun is calm, it's not in the news.   But when the sun approaches the maximum, it starts making the news, more people start paying attention and one thing they notice is "hey, how come I didn't hear about this stuff earlier?  Why does it seem to be only happening now?  A few years ago, there wasn't anything going on?"  That's the solar cycle for you, nothing was going on a few years ago because we were in the quiet part of the cycle.   

This is where you got me. The real reason why I started to be interested in these things is that I just planning to move into Europe side, and both it's interesting to see Auroras and it's the first thing which I saw is fascinating and horrifying

5 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

Hmmm... 24 días seguidos en naranja desde el 5 de julio de 2000. Y ahora tenemos 15 días seguidos (en realidad un poco más, pero como vi varios verdes largos, decidí no incluirlos)

¡Pero! Pero acabo de notar que este gráfico está disminuyendo después del 10 de mayo. 

Hello, that would be a flow line that could be said that there are many sunspots, solar flare or just one sunspot launched Small flare C, that would be the orange flow line and the green one B O A, in addition to indicating a little if there is a spot a little complex

(I hope I explain myself well, someone correct me if I said something wrong)

13 minutes ago, casualseer366 said:

It's kind of like hurricane season.  On earth, during certain parts of the year hurricanes (or typhoons) are a lot more common to the point where it's not unusual for major hurricanes develop.  It happens the same times every year, but each season is unique so it's not like they can predict a hurricane at a specific time but from mid-August to late-October, one can expect major hurricanes to develop in the Caribbean. 

The solar cycle is like that, we have a solar minimum where the sun is pretty quiet and not much goes on, and we have a solar maximum where it gets a lot more active and you see a lot more complex sunspots and solar storms.  But unlike Earth the cycle isn't yearly but 11 years.   This means we have a few years where nothing much happens and the sun is calm and not active, and it ramps up where you have a lot of activity as it approaches the solar maximum.  What I see happens is people don't pay much attention to solar weather and the solar cycle when the sun is calm, it's not in the news.   But when the sun approaches the maximum, it starts making the news, more people start paying attention and one thing they notice is "hey, how come I didn't hear about this stuff earlier?  Why does it seem to be only happening now?  A few years ago, there wasn't anything going on?"  That's the solar cycle for you, nothing was going on a few years ago because we were in the quiet part of the cycle.   

You are very right, I initially found out about space weather in 2015, yes, a year after solar maximum 24
but I didn't know much about the effect or how it worked until I found the spaceweatherlive page where I saw the geomagnetic storms in 2017
until I realize that in 2020 I could see solar flares and cmes
So in 2020 I focused a little more on researching space weather.

I have caught up and I am in reaction jail 👮‍♀️ (what else is new? 😂)

There were two CME's at the approximately same time, one from this X-event and then one from the NE limb. STEREO A is showing them both so it's hard to differentiate if there is any halo at all. STEREO A also has low quality and isn't in line with earth. I haven't seen any new images from LASCO yet. It does look more narrow than expected on STEREO A which could mean that it's a complete miss.

The parker spiral isn't fully understood and the Parker Sola Probe has studying the spiral as one of its missions.
There are a few papers out there that has been discussing how particles and CME's can be deflected by the spiral. 

This is a quote from this paper: https://space.ustc.edu.cn/users/1157234616JDEkdTA1LmZoMy4kUjdEZ2xBRXo4WDhYV3RaNjl5NUxZMA/publication/materials/20060918154440.624_cme_deflection.pdf

Quote

Under the effect of the Parker spiral magnetic field, a fast CME will be blocked by the background solar wind ahead and deflected to the east, whereas a slow CME will be pushed by the following background solar wind and deflected to the west. The deflection angle may be estimated according to the CMEs’ transit speed by using a kinetic model. It is shown that slow CMEs can be deflected more easily than fast ones. This is consistent with the observational results obtained by Zhang et al. (2003), that all four Earth-encountered limb CMEs originated from the east. On the other hand, since the most of the EFHCMEs are fast events, the range of the longitude distribution given by the theoretical model is E40◦,W70◦, which is well consistent with the observational results (E40◦, W75◦).

There are a few theories involving this and this is just one of them.

With that said, the CME looks narrow (on our side) when looking at the first images from STEREO A but we still need our friend LASCO to do its thing. However it does look like it's a miss, but we will have to wait and see about the speed when CACTUS has modelled it. The parker spiral is an interesting element but it can only do so much.

Even if we would get a glancing blow I'm sure it will be rather faint and might not even bump the data so we might not even notice it anyways.

@MinYoongi

2 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Me he puesto al día y estoy en la cárcel de reacción  👮‍♀️ (¿qué más hay de nuevo? 😂 )

Hubo dos CME aproximadamente al mismo tiempo, una de este evento X y luego otra del limbo NE. STEREO A los muestra a ambos, por lo que es difícil diferenciar si hay algún halo. STEREO A también tiene baja calidad y no está en línea con la tierra. Todavía no he visto ninguna imagen nueva de LASCO . Parece más estrecho de lo esperado en STEREO A, lo que podría significar que es un completo error.

La espiral de Parker no se comprende completamente y la sonda Parker Sola tiene como una de sus misiones estudiar la espiral.
Hay algunos artículos que han estado discutiendo cómo la espiral puede desviar  las partículas y las CME .

Esta es una cita de este artículo:  https://space.ustc.edu.cn/users/1157234616JDEkdTA1LmZoMy4kUjdEZ2xBRXo4WDhYV3RaNjl5NUxZMA/publication/materials/20060918154440.624_cme_deflection.pdf

Hay algunas teorías que involucran esto y esta es solo una de ellas.

Dicho esto, el CME parece estrecho (de nuestro lado) cuando miramos las primeras imágenes de STEREO A, pero aún necesitamos que nuestro amigo LASCO haga lo suyo. Sin embargo, parece que fue un error, pero tendremos que esperar y ver la velocidad cuando CACTUS lo haya modelado. La espiral de Parker es un elemento interesante, pero no puede hacer mucho.

Incluso si recibiéramos un golpe indirecto, estoy seguro de que será bastante débil y es posible que ni siquiera altere los datos, por lo que es posible que ni siquiera lo notemos de todos modos.

@MinYoongi

Here you have a little more information, I think this is an image of X 8.79, I hope I'm not mistaken.

Edited May 14, 20241 yr by Isatsuki San
I put inflation instead of information, I have mental autocorrect haha

12 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Here you have a little more information, I think this is an image of X 8.79, I hope I'm not mistaken.

Thanks!

Hm yea I would say that most (if not all) will miss us. I have forgot if Parker Solar Probe has got public data, does anyone know (I have probably asked this before but my brain apparently didn't think that was important information)? I know Solar Orbiter does through STIX but the CME won't hit it.

4 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Thanks!

Hm yea I would say that most (if not all) will miss us. I have forgot if Parker Solar Probe has got public data, does anyone know (I have probably asked this before but my brain apparently didn't think that was important information)? I know Solar Orbiter does through STIX but the CME won't hit it.

Dr. Finley on Twitter! @Philalethes might know something too