There's no way that this is earth directed.
But a proton event is possible

Just now, helios said:

There's no way that this is earth directed.
But a proton event is possible

Theres stereo update

3 minutes ago, Bedreamon said:

Never mind, just got reminded of why I shouldn't go on there. People thinking these storms are cover-stories for political discourse.

Anyway, I saw the NOAA post about the CME not being earth-directed, so let's see if that holds water.

Where did you see that?

6 minutes ago, helios said:

There's no way that this is earth directed.
But a proton event is possible

I'm agree. On COR2A images CME is a surprisingly narrow compared to many previous ones. Even taking into account the fact that we look completely from the side.

Let’s all wait for lasco.

16 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

what do you think about earth impact?

Not that easy to say so far with only 3 STEREO pictures and hardly any other information. Even if the CME does somehow reach us, it will only be a edge part and not very strong.

I imagine a guy and a gal lying in bed. She says to him “ your phone is beeping like crazy, im gonna smash it if ya don’t turn it off dear!” 

by the way, stix can give us more info about this flare

 

15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Where did you see that?

I don't have the tweet on-hand since I closed my browser as soon as I realized it.

1 minute ago, Bedreamon said:

I don't have the tweet on-hand since I closed my browser as soon as I realized it.

oh okay. i have found nothing on their channels so you maybe read something else

@AndrewB @helios @tniickck so to you it looked like a miss on stereo cor? 

Hello everyone, had a question; is the limb a part/region of the Sun known to produce strong flares ? 

Edited May 14, 20241 yr by MasterOfTheSun777

1 minute ago, MasterOfTheSun777 said:

Hello everyone, had a question; is the limb a part/region of the Sun known to produce strong flare ? 

there are theories about that but i dont think theres proof / a consensus

I think it is too far behind the limb to have any effect, apart from SEP.

Just now, MinYoongi said:

there are theories about that but i dont think theres proof / a consensus

Thanks for your reply ! Interesting 

1 minute ago, helios said:

I think it is too far behind the limb to have any effect, apart from SEP.

yeah i tend to think so too but comments about 2003, 2017 made me a bit uncertain. here are the eit waves that @arjemma mentioned earlier for the interested. I dont know if they give a tell about earth directedness or not though.

 

Is AR3664 now tied for most X flares? Highest I could find was AR10808 with 11 and if I counted them correctly we should have 11 too now.?

Just now, SamDieGurke said:

Is AR3664 now tied for most X flares? Highest I could find was AR10808 with 11 and if I counted them correctly we should have 11 too now.?

Unsure. Is there maybe a chart about this in the Archive or do you have to search by hand?

Just now, SamDieGurke said:

Is AR3664 now tied for most X flares? Highest I could find was AR10808 with 11 and if I counted them correctly we should have 11 too now.?

That is correct!

It is possible to be impacted by CMEs slightly over the limb, though rare. So far from STEREO A's lower quality imagery, I don't see a shock large enough to have any Earth-directed component. Note any halo is mostly on the far side.

Just now, MinYoongi said:

Unsure. Is there maybe a chart about this in the Archive or do you have to search by hand?

Only went through the top flares and the top 25 largest regions on the swl archive so at least probably tied for most in the last … years. Idk how far back the archive goes

Hey, that's me again... is there any impacts to us? Anything?

You can tell based on Gong farside images that there is decay.

 

Look at the image from the day before.

 

 

Can anybody tell that the sunspot has shrunk a lot?

Just now, Arman Sargsyan said:

Hey, that's me again... is there any impacts to us? Anything?

Im pretty sure it wont have a direct hit since it is off the edge of the sun, but Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere causing shortwave radio black outs over the Americas. if you want to read more check out https://www.spaceweather.com/. 

2 minutes ago, Arman Sargsyan said:

Hey, that's me again... is there any impacts to us? Anything?

Currently, very likely no. Plus arrivals from CMEs that close to the limb will just about always be fairly weak at L1/Earth.

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

Currently, very likely no. Plus arrivals from CMEs that close to the limb will just about always be fairly weak at L1/Earth.

Can I ask you a question... Why so many M and X flares this month, is this unusual, because graphs shows unstable this month and April... any historical events that was the same, or it's unique?

Just now, Arman Sargsyan said:

Can I ask you a question... Why so many M and X flares this month, is this unusual, because graphs shows unstable this month and April... any historical events that was the same, or it's unique?

I ask, because this unstable parts is really long, compared with calendar's statistic, is it bad?

Just now, Arman Sargsyan said:

Can I ask you a question... Why so many M and X flares this month, is this unusual, because graphs shows unstable this month and April... any historical events that was the same, or it's unique?

When we get such a complex region like this one, it isn't uncommon. These complex regions are rare though, but given we are in the years of solar maximum, they can pop up at any time without notice.