2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

any cme should be having a westward trajectory and not be a full halo hit anymore right?

I think you could still get an asymmetric halo even if a CME were to launch directly outward; but CMEs can and frequently do also launch at an angle from the region, and CMEs would be deflected eastward as well. I posted a graphic earlier from a paper on CME deflection showing where various halo CMEs that hit Earth originated from on the Solar disc, here.

Just now, Aten said:

Yeah, going by the SUVI images the coronal wave seems to travel much faster than during previous flares from this region.

I can def. see ejecta to all directions but the bulk would be headed away from earth, right?

Just now, Philalethes said:

I think you could still get an asymmetric halo even if a CME were to launch directly outward; but CMEs can and frequently do also launch at an angle from the region, and CMEs would be deflected eastward as well. I posted a graphic earlier from a paper on CME deflection showing where various halo CMEs that hit Earth originated from on the Solar disc, here.

Thank you for this graphic, i remember seeing it but forgot to save it.

5 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

This one has peaked at X5.89 and it is already descending. X6.3 from February 22nd 2024 still remains the biggest one of sc25.

For now. I bet this sunspot will produce an X40 when it reaches the limb.

Can't wait to see this one on C2/C3

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

I can def. see ejecta to all directions but the bulk would be headed away from earth, right?

Patience, we need to wait for coronagraph images.

We're constantly getting bigger and bigger eruptions. Let's see what it gives us while it is approaching the limb.

Just now, Aten said:

Patience, we need to wait for coronagraph images.

I know   But we always talk about the dimmings and stuff so why not. 

I just think any plasma ejected will not be a full halo bulk hit due to the AR's latitude/western orientation. 

ok it goes mostly north in latitude and "straight out from the AR" in longitude.

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings_details.php?science=0&dimming_id=10089&delay=80&prefix=pBDI_&small=1&aid=0&graph=1  

Here is the EUV.

Protons rise. Even the 100 MeV ones

Protons are starting to rise.

4 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Protons rise. Even the 100 MeV ones

That's a pretty hefty spike in the 100 MeV protons.

2 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

That's a pretty hefty spike in the 100 MeV protons.

Indeed it's a huge spike. 

4 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

That's a pretty hefty spike in the 100 MeV protons.

that must be due to the parker spiral i figure?

on the west limb AR's have a better connection when it comes to protons.

The top left eruption is unrelated, it happened before i the flare happened. (Was alr. present at 20UTC) 

I do think there is enough ejecta for a shock or something to arrive at earth, maybe even a full halo, but in the EUV/Dimming video it looks like not that much goes towards the east. How do you interpret this first coronagraph picture from stereo?

Given that this is more or less aimed at earth, what are the chances of it catching up with the other cmes

5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

that must be due to the parker spiral i figure?

on the west limb AR's have a better connection when it comes to protons.

Yep, fast protons will tend to follow the spiral more, so they'll be deflected this way indeed. From STA it currently looks like an asymmetric halo that's more "westward", sounds like a recipe for another hit in a couple of days, if not a bit earlier.

So would earth be getting the bulk or a glance. The newer cmes always confuse me now. 

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

Yep, fast protons will tend to follow the spiral more, so they'll be deflected this way indeed. From STA it currently looks like an asymmetric halo that's more "westward", sounds like a recipe for another hit in a couple of days, if not a bit earlier.

Thank you for the gif. So how much is earth directed? That’s what I’m interested in 🥸 ☺️ because I’m trying to especially train my eye for dimmings and euv.

According to solar ham, most of the plasma should be to the west https://www.solarham.com/

1 hour ago, Fishaxolotl said:

According to solar ham, most of the plasma should be to the west https://www.solarham.com/

I dont think we have a enough coronagraph data to make an accurate judgment on the direction yet. I haven't had the chance to look at stereo yet so I'm saying this based on lasco coronagraph (dang data gaps) c3 looks like it's catching up at least.

1 hour ago, Parabolic said:

I dont think we have a enough coronagraph data to make an accurate judgment on the direction yet. I haven't had the chance to look at stereo yet so I'm saying this based on lasco coronagraph (dang data gaps) c3 looks like it's catching up at least.

Have you seen the dimming and euv ?

6 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you for the gif. So how much is earth directed? That’s what I’m interested in 🥸 ☺️ because I’m trying to especially train my eye for dimmings and euv.

From STA it's very hard to see that, but from looking at LASCO today it seems to confirm the suspicions of a mostly "westward" asymmetrical halo; some of it should reach us.

Just now, Philalethes said:

From STA it's very hard to see that, but from looking at LASCO today it seems to confirm the suspicions of a mostly "westward" asymmetrical halo; some of it should reach us.

Huxt has modelled it as a complete miss, i dont know about other runs by nasa or noaa yet - so its very nice to get a feedback from someone that can read lasco, because i cant  Hehe. thank you! By some do you mean more of a glancing impact? 

I have a question : why are people so interested and almost glad than the sunspot if that large and dangerous now ? Yes it can make beautiful auroras but also bad things on earth, can't it ?

Here we go again 😎

R2 again

Let's go for another X-flare!