So? Will the 2005 record for a magnetic storm be broken? I am amazed that everyone is such an expert, why are you happy about solar flares if they can have a bad effect on humanity, namely headache (due to a magnetic storm), nausea and so on. Just as many sources write, there may be a blackout

Just now, Денис Максименко said:

why are you happy about solar flares

Because they are exciting and give good aurora!

1 minute ago, Денис Максименко said:

if they can have a bad effect on humanity, namely headache

There is no scientific evidence supporting space weather having an impact on human biology.

1 minute ago, Денис Максименко said:

there may be a blackout

Highly unlikely, our grids are designed to handle this and experts are monitoring it.

Bottom line, there is really nothing to worry about.

2 minuten geleden, Sam Warfel zei:

Reminder: please see the message at the top of the page.
Thanks guys!

Please all, do not use this topic to discuss the geomagnetic conditions at Earth. Keep this topic about sunspot region 3664 only or the forum will become very messy and chaotic. Thanks for understanding.

Wow, as I was browsing the DeFN page from earlier I just discovered that they actually publish live hourly vector magnetograms of all the active regions! I've been looking for that for quite some time, that's awesome. With that it's much easier to get an idea of the shear present in a given region. Here's the most recent one from this region:

14 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Wow, as I was browsing the DeFN page from earlier I just discovered that they actually publish live hourly vector magnetograms of all the active regions! I've been looking for that for quite some time, that's awesome. With that it's much easier to get an idea of the shear present in a given region. Here's the most recent one from this region:

That's awesome! Im excited to check this out.

17 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Wow, as I was browsing the DeFN page from earlier I just discovered that they actually publish live hourly vector magnetograms of all the active regions! I've been looking for that for quite some time, that's awesome. With that it's much easier to get an idea of the shear present in a given region. Here's the most recent one from this region:

nice find!! Great find! Wow.

 

and, hows the shear?

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

nice find!! Great find! Wow.

and, hows the shear?

The way to get an impression of it is to look at the borders between the polarities (black and white), many of which are marked with green from automatic detection. Where you see arrows moving across the border from white (positive) to black (negative) there's typically little shear, and where you see arrows moving along the border between the polarities there is more shear.

13 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

The way to get an impression of it is to look at the borders between the polarities (black and white), many of which are marked with green from automatic detection. Where you see arrows moving across the border from white (positive) to black (negative) there's typically little shear, and where you see arrows moving along the border between the polarities there is more shear.

Thank you for stumbling upon this and sharing it. Definitely feel like I struck gold with this one.

Looks like X-ray flux is going up again...

Edited May 10, 20241 yr by cgrant26

52 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

Thank you for stumbling upon this and sharing it. Definitely feel like I struck gold with this one.

Im very happy too! i just have problems reading it. whats your impression about current shear?

👻 Let's summon another X-flare shall we 👻

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

Im very happy too! i just have problems reading it. whats your impression about current shear?

At first glance this area here seems to show the most promising shear.

2 hours ago, Philalethes said:

The way to get an impression of it is to look at the borders between the polarities (black and white), many of which are marked with green from automatic detection. Where you see arrows moving across the border from white (positive) to black (negative) there's typically little shear, and where you see arrows moving along the border between the polarities there is more shear.

http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/hmi/sharp/dataviewer/

Absolute treasure trove of data!

47 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

At first glance this area here seems to show the most promising shear.

Yep, also here and here by the looks of it:

47 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

Absolute treasure trove of data!

Yeah, there's really vast potential in that data already, and we're just piling up more and more data too. There's so much that could be discovered with the data we've already produced with the right analysis.

If you fetch the seriesname list at the Lookdata tool you'll see how many data series there are, and the SHARP series are just a handful of them. If you e.g. fetch the hmi.sharp_720s series specifically you can also see all the different values available for each record in that series, including the unsigned flux and various others that are used (like the helicity value listed there). There are lots of papers using most of those features to try to predict the evolution of flares and regions in general, which also typically list features that tend to be more useful than others.

Here are e.g. the records for this current region with some of those values, including the unsigned flux; apart from the flux, which tends to increase monotonically over time almost no matter what happens, you can see that most of the activity seems to occur when those other values are increasing, whereas now that they've plateaued or even decreased a bit, the region seems to have mellowed out. There could of course be variation from region to region, it's a small sample size of 1 after all, but it does check out with how most activity occurs when the region becomes more complex.

Edited May 10, 20241 yr by Philalethes
bad grandma

Flaring again? Trending to greater values….?

1 hour ago, WhereingtonEvent said:

Flaring again? Trending to greater values….?

x-ray flux looks to be steadily declining so not at the moment. Then again, every time this region goes quiet for a while, it seems to pop big.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Edited May 10, 20241 yr by cgrant26

g5 this sunspot was nice

1 hour ago, Open said:

g5 this sunspot was nice

I agree. I enjoyed every moment of it!

A strong X class solar flare is erupting. This one will probably be  a major one.

Edited May 11, 20241 yr by Sotiris Konstantis

Opa, here we go

Just now, mozy said:

Opa, here we go

i just wanted to text you!

Already at X2

X3.18 already

Here we go again!

X5

its not loading for me 😕  How do you get your data that quick?