1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Solarham said the bulk goes West but still some earth directed component

I live not super far north but at a longitude where aurora traditionally tend to sink to lower latitudes to where they're visible at about 4 kp so even a little earth bound I'll take for bonus aurora early next week 😁 

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Solarham said the bulk goes West but still some earth directed component

Ah! When did it start its growth? I gotta be honest, i have not watched this part of the region as thoroughly as the others.

Sometime during the night, same area that started the flare yesterday afternoon/evening.

2 minutes ago, mozy said:

Sometime during the night, same area that started the flare yesterday afternoon/evening.

What exactly are you looking for to define a delta? I keep reading into it but none of it seems to click (I'm more a visual learner ig) and are there certain types of deltas that are more likely to be active or produce extra big ones? Something something magnetic shear..

3 minutes ago, coinpeace said:

What exactly are you looking for to define a delta? I keep reading into it but none of it seems to click (I'm more a visual learner ig) and are there certain types of deltas that are more likely to be active or produce extra big ones? Something something magnetic shear..

Rapid growth, movement, close proximity & size tend to produce more flares / bigger flares.

I didn't get it at first aswell, but just by following spaceweather for a while & following every region you eventually start getting it, I'm no expert myself but yeah 😎

NOAA has just given it size of 2420

1 minute ago, mozy said:

Rapid growth, movement, close proximity & size tend to produce more flares / bigger flares.

I didn't get it at first aswell, but just by following spaceweather for a while & following every region you eventually start getting it, I'm no expert myself but yeah 😎

youre as close to an expert as it gets, to be honest. You're confident in your knowledge and i always come to you for information or help.

Just now, MinYoongi said:

youre as close to an expert as it gets, to be honest. You're confident in your knowledge and i always come to you for information or help.

Thanks but I'm not😅 I'm just passionate about it, outside the sunpots themselves I'm just as blind as most people really

1 minute ago, mozy said:

Rapid growth, movement, close proximity & size tend to produce more flares / bigger flares.

I didn't get it at first aswell, but just by following spaceweather for a while & following every region you eventually start getting it, I'm no expert myself but yeah 😎

Ahh so we're basically waiting for a rubber band ball to twist until rubber bands start snapping, and where positive and negative regions are adjacent, that makes a little bit more sense to me on its own, thanks man 😎 

Comparing the intensitygram with yesterday's it also seems that some spots have grown and that the region in general is more compact

 

1 minute ago, Ester89 said:

Comparing the intensitygram with yesterday's it also seems that some spots have grown and that the region in general is more compact

 

Definitely agree, we might not get these longer breaks between each flare with this new movement that is taking place.

2 minutes ago, Ester89 said:

Comparing the intensitygram with yesterday's it also seems that some spots have grown and that the region in general is more compact

 

Nice comparison! I really did not see it like that. its always impressive to see the big changes.

1 minute ago, mozy said:

Definitely agree, we might not get these longer breaks between each flare with this new movement that is taking place.

I really did not notice it growing or changing. last night you say?

Hey I called g4 early on the other day and noaa decided to agree so let me wish for an x24 today and an x52 in 4 days (for research purposes on the limb lol) 

Approaching the 2003 region that produced the x44 in size (2610)

7 minutes ago, tniickck said:

NOAA has just given it size of 2420

 

9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Nice comparison! I really did not see it like that. its always impressive to see the big changes.

I really did not notice it growing or changing. last night you say?

https://streamable.com/6qezqt

Red (negative) is gaining more spots - moving to the right while getting darker in coloration, same with the blue (positive) also getting more deep blue.

Edited May 10, 20241 yr by mozy

14 minutes ago, tniickck said:

NOAA has just given it size of 2420

With this size it would be the 4th largest spot since 1996

10 minutes ago, coinpeace said:

What exactly are you looking for to define a delta? I keep reading into it but none of it seems to click (I'm more a visual learner ig) and are there certain types of deltas that are more likely to be active or produce extra big ones? Something something magnetic shear..

A delta itself is defined as an area where two sunspots of opposite polarity share the same penumbra. To see if this is the case you have to reference both the intensitygrams (to see where there are actually umbrae, the darkest cores of the spots, and penumbrae, the more darker orange regions surrounding those cores) and the magnetograms (the colored images marking the polarities of the spots).

For this SWL has implemented a slider feature for each region on the active region page where you can compare those two to each other with relative ease. Here you can see a smooth transition between the two where I've circled the most prominent deltas as of right now:

And yes, there are actually different types of deltas, which do tend to be associated with varying levels of activity, but that's getting into a more detailed view of things. The sizes of the deltas is also an important factor, especially relative to the region as a whole. On this page we can read:

Quote

 

DELTA GROUPS: Deltas are some of the largest and most active areas on the sun. The Delta is defined as two or more umbrae of opposite polarity which are inside a single penumbra or penumbral area. The opposite polarities are generally within two degrees of each other.

Deltas usually form in one of three ways.

1. A single complex emerges at once with the dipoles intertwined and polarities reversed from the Hale-Nicholson rules (ie: (f) polarity leading (p)). This is sometimes known as an "Island Delta" group.
2. Large satellite polarity areas emerge close to existing spots so that the expansion of the emerging flux region pushes a p spot into an f spot or vice versa.
3. A growing bipolar spot group collides with another separate dipole so that opposite polarities are pushed together (this is the most frequent mode of delta group formation). It only forms from emerging umbrae, not plage. If the new dipole emerges into plage only, modest flares may occur without delta spot group formation. If it emerges under or collides with an umbra of opposite polarity, the delta spot forms and larger flares occur. If the dipole collides with an umbra of the same polarity, the two do not necessarily merge, but coexist peacefully.

 

Shear is also something related, but isn't something you can typically see in the imagery that is generally available. It refers to the degree to which opposite polarities that are next to each other have field running alongside their border rather than from one and into the other. This will tend to be associated with delta spots, especially larger ones that get pushed together closely, but it's not always the case and can vary. More shear is also an indicator of complex and unstable magnetic field structures that are prone to releasing energy through flares and CMEs.

Oh its nice the link works again @Philalethes ! i tried it a few  days ago and it gave me blank.

New flare in progress! 😎

1 minute ago, Ester89 said:

New flare in progress! 😎

I got excited too soon, it's already stopped 

Hey, Everyone! I really enjoy this community, how knowledgeable, and positive everyone is. With that being said I'm a pretty anxious about this sunspot. Its absolutely ridiculous. How long until we're no longer in its line of sight if we get an R5 flare and CME?

75% to the probability of flare X. It's nice to watch. What one region can do.

4 minutes ago, Captain Jiffy said:

Hey, Everyone! I really enjoy this community, how knowledgeable, and positive everyone is. With that being said I'm a pretty anxious about this sunspot. Its absolutely ridiculous. How long until we're no longer in its line of sight if we get an R5 flare and CME?

We've taken hits from limb eruptions before, but I'd say after 2 more days most CME's if not all will most likely miss us

4 minutes ago, Captain Jiffy said:

Hey, Everyone! I really enjoy this community, how knowledgeable, and positive everyone is. With that being said I'm a pretty anxious about this sunspot. Its absolutely ridiculous. How long until we're no longer in its line of sight if we get an R5 flare and CME?

I saw a video yesterday that I think said the Halloween storm was all the way over on the edge of the disk, almost 90 degrees off, I guess this region is still a few days off until then.

 

Just now, mozy said:

We've taken hits from limb eruptions before, but I'd say after 2 more days most CME's if not all will most likely miss us

Yes that’s true and even now it’s not perfect anymore and pretty westward right ?

12 minutes ago, Captain Jiffy said:

Hey, Everyone! I really enjoy this community, how knowledgeable, and positive everyone is. With that being said I'm a pretty anxious about this sunspot. Its absolutely ridiculous. How long until we're no longer in its line of sight if we get an R5 flare and CME?

No need to be scared, but I do understand that you might be. When it comes to the west side of the sun (right side if you are watching SDO images) there is a thing called the Parker Spiral. You can read more about the spiral (more commonly known as "Heliospheric current sheet") here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliospheric_current_sheet

This spiral makes it possible for plasma from the sun to reach earth even if the plasma was ejected from the west side of the sun. A good example of this was the CME launched from a X11 event on September 10 2017 where earth was hit by the solar storm even though it was launched from the west limb.

Here's a video and some picture on that event: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/sv/arkiv/2017/09/10/xray.html

Here's an article from SWL about the event: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/306/20170910-x8-2-solar-flare.html

So we have a few days to go until we can't be hit by plasma from this region. We are safe, no need to worry.

Edited May 10, 20241 yr by arjemma

4 hours ago, tniickck said:

ok i woke up due to notifications from swl

love it

Outta reactions already.  Hilarious.  🤣🤣

Edited May 10, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
Typo

16 minutes ago, arjemma said:

No need to be scared, but I do understand that you might be. When it comes to the west side of the sun (right side if you are watching SDO images) there is a thing called the Parker Spiral. You can read more about the spiral (more commonly known as "Heliospheric current sheet") here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliospheric_current_sheet

This spiral makes it possible for plasma from the sun to reach earth even if the plasma was ejected from the west side of the sun. A good example of this was the CME launched from a X11 event on September 10 2017 where earth was hit by the solar storm even though it was launched from the west limb.

Here's a video and some picture on that event: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/sv/arkiv/2017/09/10/xray.html

Here's an article from SWL about the event: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/306/20170910-x8-2-solar-flare.html

So we have a few days to go until we can't be hit by plasma from this region. We are safe, no need to worry.

there even was an X13 a few days before