Just now, Parabolic said:

Some are slow and some are super fast. There's a lot of things that play a factor in strong Geomagnetic storms. Magnetic field orientation in the solar wind is one of the most important factors and often causes CME's to "bounce" off the magnetosphere. There's also a lot of interplay among multiple CME's as well. They could cause major storming if conditions are right or interfere with each other and cause average storming.

After typing this all out I realized your question didn't call for my lengthy explanation and I couldn't have shortened it a bit 😅

No worries I appreciate learning from you guys. Thanks for putting up with me. I thought real big ones would get to earth in 10 hours and others a couple days…

 

16 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

.. we discuss it here allllll day. thats why i dont get that you think we wouldnt know? Learning how to read and interpret stuff is always good and thats essentially what we do here, but for other reasons than the one you offer.

edit...I will move this to a new thread.

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Franklin

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

can you elaborate?

The force and density with which these CMEs left the sun is not indicative of “29 hour arrival time” at the earth as someone was suggesting based on an 1100 km/s speed at which they calculated the latest CME had left the sun - my belief is that even if they had an initial velocity of 1100 km/s, they didn’t have the ooomph behind them to maintain such a velocity all the way to earth - based solely on my observations and not on scientific data 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

5 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

...

After typing this all out I realized your question didn't call for my lengthy explanation and I couldn't have shortened it a bit 😅

 

I loved it all the same.  More information is always good to me.

2 minutes ago, Franklin said:

 

Now I guess is time for you guys to educate me on something: I assume you aren't being paid to do this, so why do you do it? 

It started from the first few times seeing Aurora when I was a child. The more complicated things became the more drawn in I become. I also love helping others and enjoyed extending my hand to help teach those trying to learn or unlearn bad teaching. Having a community to be involved in is the icing on the cake.

12 minutes ago, Franklin said:

Would you be sitting at a computer typing stuff up if you knew a grid killing CME storm was coming?  Or would you be out shopping for stuff and getting ready for the after effects?  It kind of goes along the same lines as: will the National Guard show up to protect the citizens in the cities if we are EMPed or would they stay home to protect their family?

Now I guess is time for you guys to educate me on something: I assume you aren't being paid to do this, so why do you do it?  The way I see it, there is like a 99.999999% chance that space weather will have absolutely no impact on my life, so that makes it very boring to me, unlike weather on earth that effects me almost daily.  As a sailor who has spent 8 years sailing the seas, I got really into weather, just like you guys are with space weather, but that is because it was a matter of life and death to me.

One fears what one does not know or understand - with knowledge and understanding, fear is abated and overcome.

2 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

One fears what one does not know or understand - with knowledge and understanding, fear is abated and overcome.

 

taking this to another thread...

1 minute ago, Justanerd said:

One fears what one does not know or understand - with knowledge and understanding, fear is abated and overcome.

Yeah. No. Unless you are suggesting that a large cme is not dangerous? I now understand a million percent more about space weather than I did when I first started but that does not change the fact that our society is in serious trouble without electricity. 

50 minutes ago, Franklin said:

 

Jeez, you guys are stuck on Ben.  I'm not talking about Ben.  I'm just asking....will we, the general public know before hand that a grid killing storm is coming long before it gets here?  I am sure the governments wouldn't share that information so as to not stoke a panic and I'm sure they would be busy on plans to deal with the aftermath, but would you people get the information out to news organizations?  Would it show up in my google news feed or would I have to check these forums everyday?

I imagine if what you say about Ben is true and a big one was coming, he wouldn't bother posting a video as he wouldn't get paid for it anyway.  He would be out shopping for everything he could get his hands on.  Then again, maybe all you would be too and the forum would be quiet.  Hmmmmm.....

So I guess the only way to know for sure ahead of time is to ether learn how to do this stuff myself or have a friend who does.

Different countries have different systems to warn the public. In Sweden we have MSB that will warn us. The thing is that we still have a hard time predicting CME's before they hit. We don't know if there will be prolonged negative Bz or not before it is here. If we are lucky satellites like Solar Orbiter is in line with Earth and gets hit first but that is rare. So it will be hard for the government to give out proper warnings. NOAA does put out warnings and I have seen articles in newspaper put out in Sweden if the warnings are high.

So to sum it up, it's hard to give out warnings and we won't know if it will affect our power grid before it happens. We don't have the science yet to know directly when a CME leaves the sun that it will affect our power grid. 

Ben does get paid from Youtube. Youtube pays per view if your video is monetized which I'm sure his are. There are a lot of people who are making a living just from social media and especially Youtube. So yes, he earns money by fear mongering and for every view. That is why he does this, cause he earns money.

Also google the Halloween 2003 storms, our electric grid had no issues except for a short black out in Sweden for a few hours. The grid as a whole was not affected and the power outage was resolved. In my opinion these storms aren't bigger than the ones 2003.

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by arjemma
Typo and more information

1 minute ago, arjemma said:

Different countries have different systems to warn the public. In Sweden we have MSB that will warn us. The thing is that we still have a hard time predicting CME's before they hit. We don't know if there will be prolonged negative Bz or not before it is here. If we are lucky satellites like Solar Orbiter is in line with Earth and gets hit first but that is rare. So it will be hard for the government to give out proper warnings. NOAA does put out warnings and I have seen articles in newspaper put out in Sweden if the warnings are high.

So to sum it up, it's hard to give out warnings and we won't know if it will affect our power grid before it happens. We don't have the science yet to know directly when a CME leaves the sun that it will affect our power grid. 

 

Even in the *unlikely* WORST case scenario, any power system effects from this event will be localised and short-lived. Companies are well-prepared for mid-sized events like this. learned this from you, sander and @Sam Warfel

Correct.

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Even in the *unlikely* WORST case scenario, any power system effects from this event will be localised and short-lived. Companies are well-prepared for mid-sized events like this. learned this from you, sander and @Sam Warfel

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/finalBoulderPresentation042611 (1).pdf
 

NOAA disagrees with your assessment of the situation. 
 

What is the context of this presentation, please?

Note: no one ever said it wasn't something power companies needed to be aware of, just that they are prepared for it.  After the 1989 and 2003 events discussed in your link, grids have made improvements to localize and contain GICs and prevent widespread blackouts like what happened in 1989 in Quebec.

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Even in the *unlikely* WORST case scenario, any power system effects from this event will be localised and short-lived. Companies are well-prepared for mid-sized events like this. learned this from you, sander and @Sam Warfel

Yes exactly! 

I edited my post but yea even during the 2003 storms we only had minor power outage in Sweden in one city, other than that it was fine. I have a hard time believing these storms will even be as strong as those were during Halloween 2003. It really does take a lot to wipe out the power grid in the whole world. If it does happen the power will be back rather quick... as in 2003.

1 minute ago, arjemma said:

Yes exactly! 

I edited my post but yea even during the 2003 storms we only had minor power outage in Sweden in one city, other than that it was fine. I have a hard time believing these storms will even be as strong as those were during Halloween 2003. It really does take a lot to wipe out the power grid in the whole world. If it does happen the power will be back rather quick... as in 2003.

Thank you Arjemma. 

41 minutes ago, Franklin said:

Ok.  One last question:  Do you think that if a CME capable of causing severe damage to the electrical grids was on it's way that you guys would know about it 2 days ahead of time and the general population would be notified by somebody other than a youtuber? 

This video sheds some light on SWPC protocols. They would need to be expecting G5 to raise the alarms on fed level and states wide power infrastructure. Now who would be willing to press the red button on a 50/50 chance of a Kp9 and taking the blame for all the unrest if it's a fluke? Nobody. Add to that the uncertain and downright missing data we have on solar flares, CME's and the extent of their effect in a "Carrington event" and i can say that there is zero chance the general public would get an early enough warning to make preparations other than what they already have.

There are ways to mitigate damages to infrastructure if it really comes down to it but the execution would need to be swift, merciless and not without consequences of their own. How many goverments have the protocols and plans in place? We tend to lose perspective on just how short of a time we have lived in this interconnected world run by electricity and data and we take the status quo as granted. We know for a fact that a Carrington level event happened multiple times in history and today would cause major disruptions, yet even mentioning such things causes backfire. We've seen the fragility in the system during banking crisis, COVID, European energy crisis etc... Best to just be resilient yourself, keep a healthy stock of supplies for any crisis natural or human made and remember that it's the sun which ultimately runs the show on this planet. 😎

6 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

What is the context of this presentation, please?

Note: no one ever said it wasn't something power companies needed to be aware of, just that they are prepared for it.  After the 1989 and 2003 events discussed in your link, grids have made improvements to localize and contain GICs and prevent widespread blackouts like what happened in 1989 in Quebec.

While reassuring, your opinion is in the minority, so far is my reading has led me to understand. I am not trying to be argumentative, I have just read and watched many opinions by people way more knowledgeable than I am that want to see more done to protect our power grid. 

7 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

What is the context of this presentation, please?

Note: no one ever said it wasn't something power companies needed to be aware of, just that they are prepared for it.  After the 1989 and 2003 events discussed in your link, grids have made improvements to localize and contain GICs and prevent widespread blackouts like what happened in 1989 in Quebec.

Should we take this to another thread so we don't interrupt the flow of reporting on these storms?

I would say from what I heard is that the electrical companies are privatized and therefor not concerned with spending money to prevent something that most likely will not happen within their lifetime.  They say the execs of these companies are more concerned with profits effecting stock prices and therefore their bonuses than the safety of the community.  Now of course I don't think they mean that they don't care about safety at all, but not willing to risk their jobs and compensation on something that is unlikely to happen.

 

9 minutes ago, Franklin said:

Should we take this to another thread so we don't interrupt the flow of reporting on these storms?

I would say from what I heard is that the electrical companies are privatized and therefor not concerned with spending money to prevent something that most likely will not happen within their lifetime.  They say the execs of these companies are more concerned with profits effecting stock prices and therefore their bonuses than the safety of the community.  Now of course I don't think they mean that they don't care about safety at all, but not willing to risk their jobs and compensation on something that is unlikely to happen.

 

It would get lonely in that thread pretty quickly. The Internet has no end to threads of preppers that believe the danger is real. It is probably better if us doomscrollers just slip back into the shadows. Either way I really do enjoy the back and forth about the topic that is for the most part completely ignored by the forums here. Don’t kick me out😉

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by WhereingtonEvent

Btw. NOAA just raised the bets to G4. I usually call them bluff, always a level too low but I'll take this one gladly 😅

2 minutes ago, Tino Lehtonen said:

Btw. NOAA just raised the bets to G4. I usually call them bluff, always a level too low but I'll take this one gladly 😅

Why? Are you already ready?  Camera charged, snacks packed?

Discussion of geomagnetic impacts on grids should be taken to this thread, the current thread is for discussing solar activity from AR3664, not impacts on Earth.

 

18 minutes ago, Franklin said:

Should we take this to another thread so we don't interrupt the flow of reporting on these storms?

Yes, I would suggest taking it here if it must be discussed further, where I addressed one of the previous replies just now. I would definitely suggest reading through the entire thread first, and also to search for similar threads and information that has been posted about it before.

11 minutes ago, WhereingtonEvent said:

the topic that is for the most part completely ignored by the forums here

It's generally not ignored when it comes up, it's addressed rather frequently; the thread I directed the discussion to just now itself is fairly recent and has some discussion about it, and there have been plenty of such threads popping up every so often.

Taking to other thread

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Franklin

1 hour ago, dev3770 said:

The CME is very faint in the southern and western quadrant, but in my opinion, it appears as another halo on both LASCO and STEREO.

thank you.