13 minutes ago, Franklin said:

But for newbies to this forum, we don't know who is the good guys and who isn't or their qualifications.  Seems many here blast others just like all other forums of all other subjects.  Some say X doesn't have any training or degrees or whatever, but yet, there are many times in history that armatures were right and all the expert critics were wrong.

Hint for you: pretty much everyone on here who didn't join recently at least is a "good guy".  Don't think there are any "bad guys" as implied by your statement.

14 minutes ago, Franklin said:

One thing I have learned about people is most will just parrot talk what they heard without fully understanding it.

Lots of people here do in fact fully understand what we are talking about.  As fully as anyone can understand a complicated science, that is.

4 minutes ago, Franklin said:

 

Common for them all to hit earth?

Yes. The region is earth faced, so we will catch the cme. One week earlier we don't, one week later we don't. They all come from this one region. 

5 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

The new X1 flare is more eruptive than the previous flares 😎

yes, but is it earth directed?

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Depends much on the distribution of the CME and the position of the region. But disk wise 3-4 CME’s per day on average in solar max.

Don’t forget we got an X24 direct hit in October 2003 with geomagnetic storms till Egypt (G5).

Very true. Do you think G4 is reasonable?

Just now, MinYoongi said:

yes, but is it earth directed?

Looks promising for an earth-directed component, but we need LASCO to confirm

Just now, Ingolf said:

Yes. The region is earth faced, so we will catch the cme. One week earlier we don't, one week later we don't. They all come from this one region. 

yeppers. essentially, this. My question just was if its "Normal" during solar maximum to get thrown so many earthdirected halo cmes in a relatively quick manner   Guess thats the case then?

Just now, Sam Warfel said:

Looks promising for an earth-directed component, but we need LASCO to confirm

Confused now. i thought @mozy @Calder and me saw it go rather north. Ofc waiting for coronagraph to confirm fully but why exactly promising for earth directed component? 

well if some of the cmes come tomorrow evening, i might get some aurora. i will do anything to move the clouds away, nothing else matters☺️

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by tniickck

14 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

Reading SUVI movies is a dark art, lol. Luckily for us SWL has good teachers..

love this lol

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

yeppers. essentially, this. My question just was if its "Normal" during solar maximum to get thrown so many earthdirected halo cmes in a relatively quick manner   Guess thats the case then?

I responded to Franklin ☝️😊 I know that you know 🙋‍♂️

49 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

I guess the R3 blackout notifications starts to get pretty boring right now

 

Keep it, okay? 

4 minutes ago, Ingolf said:

Yes. The region is earth faced, so we will catch the cme. One week earlier we don't, one week later we don't. They all come from this one region. 

 

I think you misunderstood my question.  I'm not talking about this time period and these storms, but in response to it's normal for many CMEs a day at peak cycle, well, that doesn't mean anything if they aren't headed towards earth.  What us newbies want to understand is: does this happen to earth a lot in the past 30 years?  If the answer is yes, then it is reasonable to assume this is all a nothing burger and I can tell my wife she doesn't have to go shopping after work.

Joining the party after a hiatus. This region is amazing! 🤩 

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

yes, but is it earth directed?

Very true. Do you think G4 is reasonable?

I think this will 100% be a G4 storm like the Nov 3, 2021 CME, And maybe if we are lucky the first G5 of the cycle.

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings_details.php?science=0&dimming_id=10071&delay=80&prefix=pBDI_&small=1&aid=0&graph=1

 

here is the dimming @mozy @Calder @Philalethes @Sam Warfel . maybe i forgot someone that was present in the earlier discussion about the dimming/earth directedness. id like to hear your opinions   

 

AND i hope i linked the right thing.

2 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Joining the party after a hiatus. This region is amazing! 🤩 

welcome back! 

2 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Joining the party after a hiatus. This region is amazing! 🤩 

Glad you're back! Thia one has been a lot of fun so far.

11 minutes ago, tniickck said:

well if some of the cmes come tomorrow evening, i might get some aurora. i will do anything to move the clouds away, nothing else matters☺️

Plug in all your fans and point them up and a bit to the left!!!

I'm happy to be back.

Been watching this region for the last 24 hours and at this point it's even fun to watch SDO live. I have it opened in a tab at all times haha.

I would say we have at least 3 CME's on the way and I think the last one looks like a glancing blow at least. We will have to wait for LASCO.

1 minute ago, Jay-B said:

Plug in all your fans and point them up and a bit to the left!!!

It's been nothing but cloud in PA for like a week and I am BEGGING the universe to move mountains and clear the clouds this weekend 😭😭😭😭

5 minutes ago, Franklin said:

does this happen to earth a lot in the past 30 years? 

It's common during maximum. Last cycle was boring, but Cycle 23 was lit. See the halloween storms, the current situation is very mild compared to 2003.

1 minute ago, arjemma said:

I'm happy to be back.

Been watching this region for the last 24 hours and at this point it's even fun to watch SDO live. I have it opened in a tab at all times haha.

I would say we have at least 3 CME's on the way and I think the last one looks like a glancing blow at least. We will have to wait for LASCO.

i linked the dimming if youre interested ❤️ 

I wondered where you went already! Happy that we can now discuss theories and stuff again.

Just now, helios said:

It's common during maximum. Last cycle was boring, but Cycle 23 was lit. See the halloween storms, the current situation is very mild compared to 2003.

++++++

6 minutes ago, arjemma said:

I'm happy to be back.

Welcome back!

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

https://www.sidc.be/solardemon/dimmings_details.php?science=0&dimming_id=10071&delay=80&prefix=pBDI_&small=1&aid=0&graph=1

 

here is the dimming @mozy @Calder @Philalethes @Sam Warfel . maybe i forgot someone that was present in the earlier discussion about the dimming/earth directedness. id like to hear your opinions   

 

AND i hope i linked the right thing.

I noticed that dimming earlier too in 195 Å; it's definitely solid, but what I noticed in particular was that noticeably curved dimming. It seems like the ejection ripped out the plasma along some particular field lines fairly high up by the looks of it; not sure if it's because they it was deflected or because it just encountered the latter parts higher up, but I'd lean more towards the latter. Will be interesting to see in LASCO for sure.

Here's an overlay of the dimming with the PFSS imagery of SDO in 195 Å; the field lines are only barely visible, but you can see how they more or less coincide with the curve of the dimming, some particular lines connecting up to the coronal hole near 3667 and surrounding region by the looks of it:

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Philalethes
typo

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

I notice that dimming earlier too in 195 Å; it's definitely solid, but what I noticed in particular was that noticeably curved dimming. It seems like the ejection ripped out the plasma along some particular field lines fairly high up by the looks of it; not sure if it's because they it was deflected or because it just encountered the latter parts higher up, but I'd lean more towards the latter. Will be interesting to see in LASCO for sure.

Here's an overlay of the dimming with the PFSS imagery of SDO in 195 Å; the field lines are only barely visible, but you can see how they more or less coincide with the curve of the dimming, some particular lines connecting up to the coronal hole near 3667 and surrounding region by the looks of it:

Great observation and happy that you share it. Do you think the curve will mean its not as earth directed? 

btw: I ran out of likes    

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

i linked the dimming if youre interested ❤️ 

I wondered where you went already! Happy that we can now discuss theories and stuff again.

++++++

I just saw, thank you! That for sure looks like a glancing blow, maybe not a direct hit but I wouldn't be surprised if it can prolong a geomagnetic storm already going on. 

I'm so happy to be back! I had a lot at work and in life.

3 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

Welcome back!

Thank you!

This is easily the best community out there ❤️

19 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Joining the party after a hiatus. This region is amazing! 🤩 

i missed you, welcome back

19 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

I think this will 100% be a G4 storm like the Nov 3, 2021 CME, And maybe if we are lucky the first G5 of the cycle.

same 

Just now, tniickck said:

i missed you, welcome back

same 

i dont know if i remember the 21st of november 2021! What makes them similar?