2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

thank you for chiming in, Sander. 

 

I know its just peanuts compared to 2003 i guess, but is it normal for solar max to have this many cme's coming? 

Yes!

From AI....The cumulation of these can be worse than normal because there are so many of them in a short time period, right?

Yes, multiple CMEs in a row can worsen the impact on Earth's electrical grid compared to a single CME. Here's why:

• Cumulative effect: Each CME can induce geomagnetic currents (GICs) in the power grid. These are essentially electric currents running through the long conductors like power lines. Even a weak CME can cause some GICs.
• Weakened magnetic field: A strong CME can distort and weaken Earth's magnetic field. This makes it easier for subsequent CMEs to induce even stronger GICs because the magnetic field isn't there to shield the Earth as effectively.

So, if there are several CMEs in a relatively short period, each one can add to the weakening of the magnetic field and make the GICs from the following CMEs stronger. This can potentially overwhelm the grid's ability to handle the currents, leading to blackouts and damage to transformers.

1 minute ago, Franklin said:

From AI....The cumulation of these can be worse than normal because there are so many of them in a short time period, right?

Yes, multiple CMEs in a row can worsen the impact on Earth's electrical grid compared to a single CME. Here's why:

• Cumulative effect: Each CME can induce geomagnetic currents (GICs) in the power grid. These are essentially electric currents running through the long conductors like power lines. Even a weak CME can cause some GICs.
• Weakened magnetic field: A strong CME can distort and weaken Earth's magnetic field. This makes it easier for subsequent CMEs to induce even stronger GICs because the magnetic field isn't there to shield the Earth as effectively.

So, if there are several CMEs in a relatively short period, each one can add to the weakening of the magnetic field and make the GICs from the following CMEs stronger. This can potentially overwhelm the grid's ability to handle the currents, leading to blackouts and damage to transformers.

whats AI? 

14 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Judging by how the shortwave flux hasn't even dipped yet I think we'll be seeing another X-flare in 3, 2, 1...

Hahaha

4 minutes ago, Franklin said:

From AI....The cumulation of these can be worse than normal because there are so many of them in a short time period, right?

Yes, multiple CMEs in a row can worsen the impact on Earth's electrical grid compared to a single CME. Here's why:

• Cumulative effect: Each CME can induce geomagnetic currents (GICs) in the power grid. These are essentially electric currents running through the long conductors like power lines. Even a weak CME can cause some GICs.
• Weakened magnetic field: A strong CME can distort and weaken Earth's magnetic field. This makes it easier for subsequent CMEs to induce even stronger GICs because the magnetic field isn't there to shield the Earth as effectively.

So, if there are several CMEs in a relatively short period, each one can add to the weakening of the magnetic field and make the GICs from the following CMEs stronger. This can potentially overwhelm the grid's ability to handle the currents, leading to blackouts and damage to transformers.

Some of this information is incorrect.
Please do not use AI (artificial intelligence) as a source of information on space weather.
Instead, refer to trusted sources such as the help section of SWL.

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Sam Warfel

wooooo the cme looks pretty good tho

4 minutes ago, Franklin said:

•  Weakened magnetic field: A strong CME can distort and weaken Earth's magnetic field. This makes it easier for subsequent CMEs to induce even stronger GICs because the magnetic field isn't there to shield the Earth as effectively.

ahahahhaa whaaaaat 

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by tniickck

Hard to tell if it will be full halo yet?

Just now, tniickck said:

wooooo the cme looks pretty good tho

isnt it shooting north? i dont see dimming left and right. maybe i gotta use the usually skipped wavelength again 😮 😛 

Just now, MinYoongi said:

isnt it shooting north? i dont see dimming left and right. maybe i gotta use the usually skipped wavelength again 😮 😛 

yeah, north

2 minutes ago, Franklin said:

From AI....The cumulation of these can be worse than normal because there are so many of them in a short time period, right?

Yes, multiple CMEs in a row can worsen the impact on Earth's electrical grid compared to a single CME. Here's why:

• Cumulative effect: Each CME can induce geomagnetic currents (GICs) in the power grid. These are essentially electric currents running through the long conductors like power lines. Even a weak CME can cause some GICs.
• Weakened magnetic field: A strong CME can distort and weaken Earth's magnetic field. This makes it easier for subsequent CMEs to induce even stronger GICs because the magnetic field isn't there to shield the Earth as effectively.

So, if there are several CMEs in a relatively short period, each one can add to the weakening of the magnetic field and make the GICs from the following CMEs stronger. This can potentially overwhelm the grid's ability to handle the currents, leading to blackouts and damage to transformers.

Okay, just think about this... 

You (hopefully) read all the nice comments of all the really good guys here, they have so much knowledge. Do you really think we would make fun and praying for cme when it would be that dangerous? 

@MinYoongi Artificial Intelligence

Unsere Zukunft hahaha 🤷‍♂️

9 minutes ago, Franklin said:

From AI....The cumulation of these can be worse than normal because there are so many of them in a short time period, right?

Yes, multiple CMEs in a row can worsen the impact on Earth's electrical grid compared to a single CME. Here's why:

• Cumulative effect: Each CME can induce geomagnetic currents (GICs) in the power grid. These are essentially electric currents running through the long conductors like power lines. Even a weak CME can cause some GICs.
• Weakened magnetic field: A strong CME can distort and weaken Earth's magnetic field. This makes it easier for subsequent CMEs to induce even stronger GICs because the magnetic field isn't there to shield the Earth as effectively.

So, if there are several CMEs in a relatively short period, each one can add to the weakening of the magnetic field and make the GICs from the following CMEs stronger. This can potentially overwhelm the grid's ability to handle the currents, leading to blackouts and damage to transformers.

AI is only as good as the data used to train it; garbage in, garbage out as they say.

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by cgrant26

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

isnt it shooting north? i dont see dimming left and right. maybe i gotta use the usually skipped wavelength again 😮 😛 

Hm I want to agree, I don't see the shockwave traveling center disk like the previous ones, too early to say but this looks worse than previous ones for earth direction.

Edit: Saw my SUVI was stuck on a certain timeframe so I hadn't gotten the most recent images, still unsure.

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by mozy

11 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

but is it normal for solar max to have this many cme's coming? 

You only need one good big region to have plentitude of CME’s. Not uncommon during solar max 😉. In such days multiple CME’s per day is pretty common

2 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

AI is only as good as it's data used to train it; garbage in, garbage out as they say.

hard quotation for real

1 minute ago, mozy said:

Hm I want to agree, I don't see the shockwave traveling center disk like the previous ones, too early to say but this looks worse than previous ones for earth direction.

I have looked in the Wavelength you earlier suggested (284) and it looks a bit like it but very faint.. im totally not good at reading this.  But it reminded me of the ones from 3663 which shot up north, if you know which ones i mean.

 

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

You only need one good big region to have plentitude of CME’s. Not uncommon during solar max 😉. In such days multiple CME’s per day is pretty common

Thank you for clarifying. So you have seen this behaviour / similar situation before? 

10 minutes ago, mozy said:

Hm I want to agree, I don't see the shockwave traveling center disk like the previous ones, too early to say but this looks worse than previous ones for earth direction.

Edit: Saw my SUVI was stuck on a certain timeframe so I hadn't gotten the most recent images, still unsure.

You can see it pretty well on 195. It does indeed look to be going primarily North.

Just now, cgrant26 said:

You can see it pretty well on 195. It does indeed look to be going primarily North.

It feels good to not fail for once lol.

6 minutes ago, Ingolf said:

Okay, just think about this... 

You (hopefully) read all the nice comments of all the really good guys here, they have so much knowledge. Do you really think we would make fun and praying for cme when it would be that dangerous? 

 

But for newbies to this forum, we don't know who is the good guys and who isn't or their qualifications.  Seems many here blast others just like all other forums of all other subjects.  Some say X doesn't have any training or degrees or whatever, but yet, there are many times in history that armatures were right and all the expert critics were wrong.

One thing I have learned about people is most will just parrot talk what they heard without fully understanding it.  I always try to understand it.  Some guy (can't use his name it seems) says it's a low but still a chance of a devastating hit.  I'm trying to figure out how he thinks it's a possibility even if low.  That's all.

 

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

It feels good to not fail for once lol.

Reading SUVI movies is a dark art, lol. Luckily for us SWL has good teachers..

18 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

Some of this information is incorrect.
Please do not use AI (artificial intelligence) as a source of information on space weather.
Instead, refer to trusted sources such as the help section of SWL.

 

This is what bugs me.  Those who say something is incorrect but they doesn't explain what is incorrect and why.  Makes me just want to ignore the post.  I once had a professor who told a student in class in front of everybody after he asked a question that he was too far gone and needed to drop the class.  I too wanted to know the answer.

I can't stand the 'you are too ignorant for me to talk to' attitude.  That professor was also the worst I ever had.  I didn't learn crap from him.  I had to take the course again with a different professor and got an A and learned a ton. 

5 minutes ago, Franklin said:

 

But for newbies to this forum, we don't know who is the good guys and who isn't or their qualifications.  Seems many here blast others just like all other forums of all other subjects.  Some say X doesn't have any training or degrees or whatever, but yet, there are many times in history that armatures were right and all the expert critics were wrong.

One thing I have learned about people is most will just parrot talk what they heard without fully understanding it.  I always try to understand it.  Some guy (can't use his name it seems) says it's a low but still a chance of a devastating hit.  I'm trying to figure out how he thinks it's a possibility even if low.  That's all.

 

That's okay. I just want to give a hint that here are so many experts, and they all explained those "fears" more than once. 

I know someone who was really afraid of all this, so she read about space weather and is now pretty good in reading images and making predictions.

20 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

You only need one good big region to have plentitude of CME’s. Not uncommon during solar max 😉. In such days multiple CME’s per day is pretty common

 

Common for them all to hit earth?

The new X1 flare is more eruptive than the previous flares 😎

26 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

AI is only as good as it's data used to train it; garbage in, garbage out as they say.

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)の説明 Space Weather Prediction Center, NOAA (.gov)
• EarthSky article on solar storms [EarthSky earthsky.org]

 

I believe that was AIs source.  Is it garbage?

1 minuut geleden, Franklin zei:

 

Common for them all to hit earth?

Depends much on the distribution of the CME and the position of the region. But disk wise 3-4 CME’s per day on average in solar max.

Don’t forget we got an X24 direct hit in October 2003 with geomagnetic storms till Egypt (G5).