13 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Looks like another incoming flare.

The new M3.12 flare comes from the sunspot that is a bit away from the main group.

16 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Looks like another incoming flare.

impulsive though, because it comes from the westernmost sunspot which barely has any complexity

3 minutes ago, Misaka said:

The new M3.12 flare comes from the sunspot that is a bit away from the main group.

nice catch! the 12:08 one could be from the west limb.

It looks like X2.25 is moving protons. Probably nothing big, but they're going up.

I may be wrong but I believe they are including sunspots that previously were considered part of AR3668 as they appear to have merged the two into one region 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

1 hour ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Update: 

Sunspot number: 99 (up 37 compared to yesterday)

Size : 1300 (up 100 compared to yesterday)

 

This is 22nd largest sunspot (when it comes to size) from when the records of this site began. 1998 is the earliest one on that list, so at least 26 years.

99 is the 3rd largest sunspot (when it comes to sunspot number) we've seen on the same period. Only the well known Halloween 2003 spot had 108 and a sunspot in 2014 had 118 sunspot number. There was also a sunspot in 2004 which had also 99 sunspot number. 

 

This is a very complex group. Note that AR2673 from 2017 which produced 2 X10+ flares only had a sunspot number of 33 on it's peak day. 

 

X2.2. I just knew I shouldn’t have slept! 

31 minutes ago, Wolf star said:

It looks like X2.25 is moving protons. Probably nothing big, but they're going up.

I’m surprised we’re not on the third day of a proton event at this stage, given the flares we have seen these past 3 days 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Justanerd
Omitted we

1 hour ago, Tino Lehtonen said:

A TRIPLE CMEBURGER? That's it I'm heading to the bunker.

Sounds like you may have company.  Patrick may still be in his from 2012. 🤣🤣🤣

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953

12 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

I may be wrong but I believe they are including sunspots that previously were considered part of AR3668 as they appear to have merged the two into one region 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

 

Probably yes, AR 3668 was removed, but the last reported number was only 5 spots.

9 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

I’m surprised we’re not on the third day of a proton event at this stage, given the flares we have seen these past 3 days 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Protons are trapped in the CMEs flying at us. Soon they will arrive

11 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

I’m surprised we’re not on the third day of a proton event at this stage, given the flares we have seen these past 3 days 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

I probably wouldn't call it completely unusual. Sometimes, indeed, such flares do not produce any proton events.

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Wolf star

6 minutes ago, tniickck said:

Protons are trapped in the CMEs flying at us. Soon they will arrive

absolutely right

We get em initially and a bonus haha!   Lasco should look like a hailstorm 

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953

1 hour ago, Eric said:

Actually I had the wrong launch time. Looks more like 1100 Km/s.

The type II radio emission from the flare was at 1004 km/s - the CME will be much slower by the time it reaches earth - my best guess is 42-54 hours until arrival but I’m just guessing 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

It was a good resource a few years ago, and I also enjoyed using it together with this forum and website/app. no shame in using it, but *to me* its not worth it anymore.

It's not as bad as YouTubers, but it's still a bit exaggerated sometimes (mostly when talking about big sunspots and strong flares). It's mostly when comparing spot sizes to the one from 1859, which... is kinda unnecessary?

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Bedreamon

46 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

I may be wrong but I believe they are including sunspots that previously were considered part of AR3668 as they appear to have merged the two into one region 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

 

 

36 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

I’m surprised we’re not on the third day of a proton event at this stage, given the flares we have seen these past 3 days 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Me too @Justanerd!! Been expecting them too surprisingly this is the first real event   Edit. STCE keeps good records of GLE events. It would be our second unless I am mistaken when all is said and done.  Pretty cool if the mid and high level stuff makes it to us.  

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953
STCE

10 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

37 minutes ago, Justanerd said:

I’m surprised we’re not on the third day of a proton event at this stage, given the flares we have seen these past 3 days 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Me too @Justanerd!! Been expecting them too surprisingly this is the first real event 

I'm wondering if the first few CMEs are acting as a barrier until they pass

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I'm wondering if the first few CMEs are acting as a barrier until they pass

Very good thinking!  Could be!!   Edit:   In fact you’re probably absolutely correct. This is not unlike many prior events where the way for a subsequent CME was “cleared” by prior events and big mamma comes along “ cleaning house”.  🤣🤣🤣

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I'm wondering if the first few CMEs are acting as a barrier until they pass

i do think so, we've seen it in the past

24 minutes ago, Bedreamon said:

It's not as bad as YouTubers, but it's still a bit exaggerated sometimes (mostly when talking about big sunspots and strong flares). It's mostly when comparing spot sizes to the one from 1859, which... is kinda unnecessary?

yes. also constantly promoting his own articles.

Ben upgraded the killshot chance to 8-10 percent

4 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

Ben upgraded the killshot chance to 8-10 percent

Haha 😂 careful there!  

1 minute ago, Fishaxolotl said:

Ben upgraded the killshot chance to 8-10 percent

That's a bit low if you ask me, I'd say we have a roughly 95% chance of a Miyake event here [1].

References:

10 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

Ben upgraded the killshot chance to 8-10 percent

do you really believe in his stuff? 

5 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Haha 😂 careful there!  

i had to laugh too. Ben is a joke.. does anyone believe him?

Morning or afternoon maybe @Philalethes  haha. Glad you saved that!!!  🤣🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂

7 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

That's a bit low if you ask me, I'd say we have a roughly 95% chance of a Miyake event here [1].

References:

 

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953

7 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

That's a bit low if you ask me, I'd say we have a roughly 95% chance of a Miyake event here [1].

References:

I haven’t looked into it in a long time, was anyone ever able to associate a miyake event to a solar storm?