2 minutes ago, Aten said:

👀

Yeah r3 is the x class flare odds and we're currently in r1 rn. Those are the same odds as yesterday and we had (3?) X in the last 24h

That fifth one is really dense, a straight plume of ejecta showing up clearly in SUVI 304. The main mass is headed SW tho and definently won't be more spectacular than the engine of this "train". I know it's going to be a real aurora spectacle as a Finland-shaped cloud just parked on top of us after a rare 3 day period of clear skies. 🫠

5 minutes ago, coinpeace said:

Tbf they have the potential to be dangerous. This one is a big boy and it did bubble up pretty quick in a similar fashion to the region described by carrington so I feel a comparison is at least marginally warranted at this point. 

Sure, just pointing out that I'm not a fan of that site, they like to fear-monger a lot too, they call any sunspot with a delta "dangerous"

Anyone know what time they update the flare size/spot count?

Just now, mozy said:

Sure, just pointing out that I'm not a fan of that site, they like to fear-monger a lot too, they call any sunspot with a delta "dangerous"

Agreed. We've done quite a bit in the last 10 years to mitigate the risk as well. 

Might have a new eruption soon, things are starting to rise within the region once again

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by mozy

5 minutes ago, mozy said:

Might have a new eruption soon, things are starting to rise within the region once again

Already M8. Let's see if it becomes an X flare again.

5 minutes ago, mozy said:

Might have a new eruption soon, things are starting to rise within the region once again

We're really close to R3 right now

1 hour ago, mozy said:

The admin behind the site does this with every big sunspot, always calls them dangerous too.🙃

have you read the whole article? He then proceeded to link his own article from 3 years ago how carrington events happen every 40-60 years and "we're OvErDuE"

7 minutes ago, mozy said:

Might have a new eruption soon, things are starting to rise within the region once again

are you a clairvoaynt?  

At X1.14 right now. Another X flare is official.

Already x 😎

X-flare in progress now

Hooray!

3 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

X-flare in progress now

well good mornign to me  just woke up

This is the largest flare this region has produced and it's still rising.

X2.0

We can already see that this one will be eruptive aswell.

1 minute ago, mozy said:

We can already see that this one will be eruptive aswell.

yep   is it in an okay position still? I would say yes

Just now, MinYoongi said:

yep   is it in an okay position still? I would say yes

Definitely, probably the best it can be at atm.

1 minute ago, mozy said:

Definitely, probably the best it can be at atm.

why the best? I thought yesterday or the day before since it was earth facing directly?

This is definitely concerning now. 4 cmes

11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

why the best? I thought yesterday or the day before since it was earth facing directly?

I mean it's still in its best position (previous days included), worded it badly.

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by mozy

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

why the best? I thought yesterday or the day before since it was earth facing directly?

Eruptions that are faster than the ambient Solar wind will tend to be deflected "eastward" (to the left).

1 minute ago, Fishaxolotl said:

This is definitely concerning now. 4 cmes

why?

Just now, Philalethes said:

Eruptions that are faster than the ambient Solar wind will tend to be deflected "eastward" (to the left).

Ah, i remember the graphic you showed me. sorry, forgot about it.

1 minute ago, Fishaxolotl said:

This is definitely concerning now. 4 cmes

I would say it is exciting rather than concerning. We would probably need to be worried if we had 4 CME's each from X20+ solar flare.