3 minutes ago, PandorasParabox said:

Ben has forecast a 5% chance of kill shot event 😕

 

 

Hilarious

Guess it feels that way when you have 3 cmes inflicting direct hits back to back.

I can independently verify this thing does exist!
Shot this this afternoon

26 minutes ago, mozy said:

Hilarious

I am new to this stuff, I honestly can’t stand that guy but does he have any credibility? Ben Davidson that is.

3 minutes ago, Members only said:

I am new to this stuff, I honestly can’t stand that guy but does he have any credibility? Ben Davidson that is.

None at all.  He is a fear monger exploiting fear for views.  Debunked by scientists more tines than I can count

2 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

None at all.  He is a fear monger exploiting fear for views.  Debunked by scientists more tines than I can count

Thank you. I can’t find anything on him. Didn’t know if he had credible info or if he’s just talking out his butt. He doesn’t seem to be a scientist or anything at all

4 minutes ago, Members only said:

Thank you. I can’t find anything on him. Didn’t know if he had credible info or if he’s just talking out his butt. He doesn’t seem to be a scientist or anything at all

Yeah he's just a fool, sadly people believe in everything he says and give him tons of money every livestream, he constantly insults & ban people that don't agree with him.
Don't bother watching him at all, his following is becoming a cult.

3 minutes ago, mozy said:

Yeah he's just a fool, sadly people believe in everything he says and give him tons of money every livestream, he constantly insults & ban people that don't agree with him.
Don't bother watching him at all, his following is becoming a cult.

He still believes that the sun causes earthquakes, debunked more times than I can count. 

The amount of deltas this region has now is wild lol

1 hour ago, PandorasParabox said:

Ben has forecast a 5% chance of kill shot event 😕

 

 

What is the definition of a kill shot? 
I imagine that he is fear mongering. 

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by WhereingtonEvent

1 hour ago, WhereingtonEvent said:

What is the definition of a kill shot?

Pretty sure it is some sort of super flare far beyond any flare satellites have been able to record to date.

I can kill shot their idea though. The region is extremely complex, but the magnetic shear looks high, but not extreme. Polarity strengths of the umbra's are strong, but not extremely strong. What the region has going for it currently is its size and complexity through out the region.

I think in Ben's definition of a kill shot that could be from one massive CME or from a culmination of many CMEs in a row. According to Dr. Tamitha Skov we now have 5 CMEs headed our way. If I'm being totally honest, as a relatively new dad, I'm a little spooked. Especially since 3664 is still glaring at us.

On a somewhat related note is the solar storm scale, G1-G5, logarithmic or more linear?

 

5 minutes ago, Captain Jiffy said:

I think in Ben's definition of a kill shot that could be from one massive CME or from a culmination of many CMEs in a row. According to Dr. Tamitha Skov we now have 5 CMEs headed our way. If I'm being totally honest, as a relatively new dad, I'm a little spooked. Especially since 3664 is still glaring at us.

On a somewhat related note is the solar storm scale, G1-G5, logarithmic or more linear?

 

You have nothing to worry about, this is normal space weather during solar maximum.

this is the first time ever i see an active region with such flare probability percentage. it's also really great that it doesn't have a magnetic cage, even with such complexity. Wondering if it will launch and X10 at least on the limb, because this region really does have great potential for it, i'd say

We are continuing to be over M levels for most of the time. This is the most active and the most flares back to back I've seen. No big ones yet though. 

1 minute ago, willow said:

this is the first time ever i see an active region with such flare probability percentage. it's also really great that it doesn't have a magnetic cage, even with such complexity. Wondering if it will launch and X10 at least on the limb, because this region really does have great potential for it, i'd say

I certainly see the possibility but I also remember about 1-2 months ago (don't remember which sunspot it was) we were also expecting some mid-X activity with a very complex sunspot yet we never got it. So it's not guaranteed.

5 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

We are continuing to be over M levels for most of the time. This is the most active and the most flares back to back I've seen. No big ones yet though. 

I certainly see the possibility but I also remember about 1-2 months ago (don't remember which sunspot it was) we were also expecting some mid-X activity with a very complex sunspot yet we never got it. So it's not guaranteed.

3664 launched at least two X flares and a few earth-directed CME's with, according to recent wsa-enlil model, have a speed over 700 kmph and proton density around 40. Yeah, not the biggest such region could do, but it's still really great. Especially the CME's from X1 and M8 flares, no magnetic cage with such complexity is great

edit: yeah only one X flare, as i can see on SWL

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by willow

Has anyone seen the latest enlil forecast? Never seen it this high! But in saying that, I've only been following space weather for a few years.

 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-predict

 

30 minutes ago, Captain Jiffy said:

On a somewhat related note is the solar storm scale, G1-G5, logarithmic or more linear?

It's based on the Kp-index (Kp5-Kp9 correspond to G1-G5), which is "quasi-logarithmic", in that it's not following a specific logarithmic function, but defined with specific values that follow a somewhat logarithmic relationship. On this page here on SWL you can see the table of the values they correspond to on the ap-index, which is linear.

12 minutes ago, willow said:

this is the first time ever i see an active region with such flare probability percentage. it's also really great that it doesn't have a magnetic cage, even with such complexity. Wondering if it will launch and X10 at least on the limb, because this region really does have great potential for it, i'd say

X10 at the end? No, no, no!! I'd rather wait a few weeks for the next transition to the X10 in the middle.

27 minutes ago, ZoeB96 said:

Has anyone seen the latest enlil forecast? Never seen it this high! But in saying that, I've only been following space weather for a few years.

 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-predict

 

Just wanted to post that. I can agree, plasma density around 100 p/cm3 would be pretty extreme, also speed not bad at all - around 900 km/s. The only thing to keep in mind, that this is just a forecast and these multiple back-to-back eruptions make things even more complicated in my opinion, because we don't know what/if there will be interaction between these CME's.

Some comparisons being made with this sunspot and the Carrington sunspot sunspot https://www.spaceweather.com/

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by Fishaxolotl

11 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

Just wanted to post that. I can agree, plasma density around 100 p/cm3 would be pretty extreme, also speed not bad at all - around 900 km/s. The only thing to keep in mind, that this is just a forecast and these multiple back-to-back eruptions make things even more complicated in my opinion, because we don't know what/if there will be interaction between these CME's.

I second your comment! Very true. The models don’t do well with more than 1 CME too and the density gets funny.

13 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said:

Some comparisons being made with this sunspot and the Carrington sunspot sunspot https://www.spaceweather.com/

The admin behind the site does this with every big sunspot, always calls them dangerous too.🙃

Edited May 9, 20241 yr by mozy

26 minutes ago, mozy said:

The admin behind the site does this with every big sunspot, always calls them dangerous too.🙃

Tbf they have the potential to be dangerous. This one is a big boy and it did bubble up pretty quick in a similar fashion to the region described by carrington so I feel a comparison is at least marginally warranted at this point. 

👀